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流动性改善叠加AI加速兑现,A股市场环境将更加友好
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 23:11
MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! 展望2026年,财通基金副总经理、权益投资总监金梓才认为,A股市场有望步入整体环境更优、结构性 特征深化的发展阶段,核心驱动力源于全球流动性环境的进一步改善,以及以AI为代表的产业趋势进 入加速兑现期,整体投资环境具备较强支撑性。宏观层面,金梓才认为,全球与国内流动性环境预计同 步向好,为市场奠定坚实基础。外部来看,美联储2026年降息节奏或加快,A股面临的外部约束大幅减 弱,海外资金环境更趋友好;内部而言,国内货币政策将持续为经济高质量发展与产业升级提供支持, 维持流动性合理充裕。产业维度,金梓才认为,以人工智能为首的科技成长方向增长动能将持续强化。 AI产业正从2025年的高速渗透,迈向2026年进一步业绩兑现与深度影响阶段,现有迹象表明,其后续 增长势头非但不会放缓,反而可能加快,对企业生产效率和商业模式的变革将更为深刻。(证券时报) ...
金价又疯了,首饰金已经破千,还能否复刻上半年暴涨神话么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 06:25
Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3,550, driven by multiple factors including a crisis of confidence in the US dollar, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [1][5][9]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The first major factor is the crisis of confidence in the US dollar, with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 124% and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in real yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds from 1.8% to below 1.2% [5][11]. - The second factor is the surge in central bank gold purchases, with global central banks net buying 256 tons of gold in the first four months of the year, including a continuous increase in China's gold reserves [7][9]. - The third factor is the geopolitical risk premium, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East pushing investors towards gold as a safe haven [9][14]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The investment community is observing whether the three driving forces behind gold's price surge can continue, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which could enhance liquidity and support gold prices [11][18]. - Geopolitical uncertainties remain a significant catalyst for gold prices, with predictions indicating a possible 10% increase if conflicts escalate, while a return to peace could lead to a price correction of 12% to 17% [14][16]. - Supply and demand dynamics are also crucial, with stable gold production but fluctuating demand; jewelry consumption has decreased by 26.68% due to high prices, while investment demand is rising [16][18].