全球温升1.5摄氏度目标
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前沿观察 | IEA:全球化石燃料需求或持续增长至2050年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 16:43
Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050, marking a revision of previous expectations for a rapid transition to clean fuels [2][3] - The IEA's current policy scenario indicates that global oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by the middle of the century, a 13% increase from 2024 levels [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, with an expected 50% growth by 2030, driven by rising electricity demand from data centers and artificial intelligence [6] Group 2 - The IEA's report suggests that the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is increasingly unlikely to be achieved, despite commitments from over 190 countries [7] - The report indicates that global LNG market capacity will grow from approximately 5,600 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 10,200 billion cubic meters by 2050 [6] - The IEA's shift away from climate commitment-based scenarios in its analysis reflects challenges in assessing meaningful climate targets due to insufficient submissions from countries [3]