非农数据公布后，国际油价快速跳水，WTI原油、布油跌破60美元后加速下挫。现货黄金上扬逾20美元，最高至4330美元/盎司。 12月16日，国际原油期货价格突然直线跳水，截至当日22:04，WTI原油期货日内跌幅达2.06%，现报55.65美元/桶。ICE布油跌近2%报59.62美元/桶，失守 60美元关口，为5月以来首次。 消息面上，据新华财经，12月16日晚9:30，美国公布最新非农数据，11月季调后非农就业人口录得6.4万人，高于市场普遍预期。美国11月失业率录得 4.6%，为2021年9月以来新高。美国劳工统计局下修8月和9月非农数据，两月合计新增就业比初值少3.3万人，8月由-0.4万修正为-2.6万。 申银万国期货分析师董超也认同这一趋势，他认为未来十年，人工智能与算力中心的快速发展将带动全球用电需求快速增长，气电成为许多国家满足电 力供应的重要方式，这将释放天然气需求潜力，并可能因此推迟全球石油需求达峰的时间。 这一轮价格跳水是近期油价持续下行趋势的延续。截至12月15日，ICE布油年内跌幅达19.13%，WTI原油年内跌幅更是扩大至20.97%，两大原油期货品种 均陷入深度调整。 对于本轮油价 ...

Core Insights - BP forecasts that global oil demand will continue to grow until 2030, delaying the peak demand prediction from 2025 to 2030 due to slower improvements in energy efficiency [1] Group 1: Demand Projections - According to BP's latest annual report, oil demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day by 2030 and decline to 83 million barrels per day by 2050 under the current trajectory scenario [1] - The previous year's report anticipated peak oil demand at 102 million barrels per day in 2025 [1] - If energy efficiency improvements remain slow, oil demand could rise to approximately 106 million barrels per day by 2035 [1] Group 2: Scenarios - BP's report includes two scenarios: "business as usual," which considers existing policies and commitments, and a "below 2°C" scenario that aims to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C as per the Paris Agreement [1] - In the "below 2°C" scenario, oil demand is projected to peak at around 102.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and drop to 33.8 million barrels per day by 2050 [1]