全球石油需求达峰

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BP:全球石油需求2030年达峰
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-30 03:12
Core Insights - BP forecasts that global oil demand will continue to grow until 2030, delaying the peak demand prediction from 2025 to 2030 due to slower improvements in energy efficiency [1] Group 1: Demand Projections - According to BP's latest annual report, oil demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day by 2030 and decline to 83 million barrels per day by 2050 under the current trajectory scenario [1] - The previous year's report anticipated peak oil demand at 102 million barrels per day in 2025 [1] - If energy efficiency improvements remain slow, oil demand could rise to approximately 106 million barrels per day by 2035 [1] Group 2: Scenarios - BP's report includes two scenarios: "business as usual," which considers existing policies and commitments, and a "below 2°C" scenario that aims to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C as per the Paris Agreement [1] - In the "below 2°C" scenario, oil demand is projected to peak at around 102.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and drop to 33.8 million barrels per day by 2050 [1]