记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，2月24日24时国内成品油零售调价将开启上调窗口。据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（2月 3日—2月23日）国际油价震荡上行。 2月24日24时起，国内汽、柴油零售限价每吨分别上调175元、170元。全国平均来看：92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油分别上调0.14元、0.15元、0.14元。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心预计，地缘局势变化仍是加剧当前国际油价波动的主要因素。美伊局势面临高度不确定性，美国持续从军事和外交两方面加大 对伊朗施压，伊朗对中东局势表态强硬，并威胁可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，后期需密切关注美伊军事动向及谈判进程。 然而，也需要看到，全球供应过剩的基本面仍未发生改变，国际能源署在最新的月度报告中将2026年全球石油需求增长预期从93万桶/日下调至85万桶/日， 美国新一轮关税上调举措也将给全球经济增长和石油需求带来压力。 来源 央视财经 编辑 谢珂 审核 蒋波 陈洁 本轮成品油调价周期国际油价震荡上行 调价周期内，地缘政治风险上升主导国际油价震荡上行。一是美伊紧张局势骤然升级。伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡开展军事演习，一度关闭部分海域，而美方持续 在中东 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the Middle - East tensions increasing the risk premium, crude oil prices have risen for two consecutive days. The geopolitical tensions this year have overshadowed concerns about global supply surplus. The market will get insights from a series of data this week, starting with the EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report. The short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle - East tensions have pushed up the risk premium, causing oil prices to rise for two consecutive days. WTI crude oil has traded above $64 per barrel after a 1.7% increase in the past two trading days, and Brent crude oil has closed above $69. The US warned that US - flagged vessels should stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The US Maritime Administration's warning was related to an incident on February 3 when a US - flagged oil tanker was approached by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Venezuelan crude oil production has approached 1 million barrels per day after returning to the pre - cut level [4]. - US sanctions have led to a continuous decline in Russian crude oil production. In January, Russia's average daily crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels, 46,000 barrels per day less than in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day lower than the quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The amount of Russian oil stored on tankers has been increasing [5]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level due to the Iran situation, with the month - spread falling and the North Sea Brent basis dropping to $1.005 per barrel. The US and Iran held a six - hour nuclear negotiation on Friday, with Iran calling it a good start. A second round of negotiations is expected in the coming days. - Globally, the total petroleum inventory has decreased. In the US, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventory decreased by 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude oil for March. - In Singapore, all refined oil products have seen inventory accumulation. In ARA, crude oil inventory has decreased, while refined oil products, diesel, and gasoline have seen inventory accumulation. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventories have increased [5]. 3.3 EIA Report - For the week ending January 30, US crude oil exports decreased by 542,000 barrels per day to 4.047 million barrels per day [15]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day [15]. - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82% [15]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.802 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [15]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% [15]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [15].

Group 1 - The Middle East oil market is showing signs of further weakness, raising concerns about a potential global supply surplus that could drive oil prices lower [1] - The price differential between Dubai benchmark crude and Brent crude futures has widened to its largest level since August, indicating ample supply [1] - The forward curve of Dubai swaps has returned to a "contango" structure, where near-term contract prices are lower than future contract prices, a typical bearish signal [1] Group 2 - Saudi Aramco has significantly lowered its selling prices to major Asian customers for the third consecutive month, pushing the price differential for its flagship Arab Light crude to a five-year low [2] - The current market conditions have alleviated concerns about U.S. intervention in Venezuela potentially disrupting oil flows from the South American country [2] - There is a notable lack of urgency among Asian buyers to purchase alternative Middle Eastern grades such as Iraq's Basrah crude [2] Group 3 - Approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil scheduled for shipment in February remain unsold, which is unusual as such supplies are typically sold by the end of December [3] - This backlog in sales indicates that it is the fourth consecutive month that Arabian Gulf crude has struggled to find buyers [3] - Historically, the region has been able to sell most of its oil offerings [3]

Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices remain stable as traders weigh geopolitical tensions from Venezuela, Russia, and Yemen against global supply surplus concerns [2][15] - WTI crude oil settled at approximately $58 per barrel, with a slight decline of 13 cents for February futures [16][19] - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production freeze plan amid signs of increasing global oil supply surplus [18] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices recorded the longest consecutive gains since 2017, rising by 2.75% to $12,558.5 per ton, driven by expectations of supply chain pressures [5][22] - Year-to-date, copper has increased by over 40%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [22] - The weakening dollar has contributed to the upward trend in copper prices, with a measure of dollar performance down approximately 8% [22] Group 3: Precious Metals - Silver prices rebounded after experiencing the largest single-day drop in over five years, with a monthly increase of about 35% due to ongoing supply shortages [10][27] - Silver reached over $78 per ounce, recovering from a previous 9% drop [27] - Gold prices saw a slight increase after two months of significant declines, with spot gold rising by 0.37% to $4,348.42 per ounce [12][27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in international oil prices is attributed to a combination of disappointing U.S. employment data and ongoing concerns about global economic recovery, leading to a bearish outlook on oil demand [3][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Movement - On December 16, WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.06% to $55.65 per barrel, while ICE Brent crude dropped nearly 2% to $59.62 per barrel, marking the first time it fell below $60 since May [1]. - As of December 15, ICE Brent crude has seen a year-to-date decline of 19.13%, and WTI crude has dropped 20.97%, indicating a significant downward trend in both major oil futures [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth rates of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which, while slightly improved from earlier forecasts, remain below the growth expected for 2024 [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The OECD has issued a cautious forecast, predicting a decline in U.S. economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, and further down to 1.7% in 2026, influenced by tariffs, slowing consumer spending, and government shutdowns [6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a significant oversupply in the oil market, with global oil supply expected to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day [6]. Group 4: Future Trends - Despite short-term pressures on the oil market, long-term dynamics may shift due to the rising demand for electricity driven by AI technology, which could increase natural gas demand and subsequently impact oil prices [7]. - Morgan Stanley has warned that by 2028, the rapid growth of AI data centers could lead to a potential electricity shortfall of up to 20% in the U.S., while the EIA predicts that global electricity demand from data centers will more than double by 2030 compared to 2024 [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is approximately $4319.17 per ounce, showing a slight upward trend [1][6] - Investors anticipate two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, providing strong support for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset amid increasing global uncertainty [1][6] - Last Friday, gold prices rose by 0.48%, closing around $4300 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4353 per ounce, marking the highest level since October 21 [1][6] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation at the beginning of the week, with significant data releases scheduled, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI data [2][6] - Previous price action showed gold facing resistance at the $4380 level, forming a "double top" bearish pattern before stabilizing around $3900 [2][6] - The daily chart indicates a clear bullish trend, with gold successfully breaking above the previous consolidation range and maintaining above the $4200 level [3][7] Group 3: Short-term Trading Strategy for Gold - The short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips, with key resistance levels identified at $4350-$4370 and support levels at $4295-$4275 [3][7] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - The current price of WTI crude oil is around $57.53 per barrel, with a weekly decline exceeding 4% due to concerns over global supply surplus and geopolitical tensions [4][8] - Brent crude futures settled at $61.12 per barrel, while WTI crude futures closed at $57.44 per barrel, both showing a decrease of $0.16 [4][8] Group 5: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart for oil indicates a secondary consolidation phase, with prices testing the previous low around $56 [5][9] - The short-term trend is characterized by a range-bound movement between $56.80 and $58.10, with MACD indicators showing a lack of strong bearish momentum [5][9] - The recommended trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $59.0-$60.0 and support levels at $56.5-$55.5 [5][9]

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - At present, the supply - demand and cost side of ethylene glycol lack support, and it is expected that the ethylene glycol price will maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For EG2601, the closing price was 3922 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan, with a position of 338,660 contracts, a decrease of 19,433 contracts. For EG2605, the closing price was 4013 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan, with a position of 43,902 contracts, an increase of 64 contracts. On the 14th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 3903 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3946 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3965 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 3924 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 3922 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 223,785 lots, and the position was 338,660 lots [7] 2. Industry News - No industry news content is provided in the available report. 3. Data Overview - International Oil Prices: On Thursday (November 13), the settlement price of the December 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.69 per barrel, up $0.20 or 0.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.12 - $59.21. The settlement price of the January 2026 Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange in London was $63.01 per barrel, up $0.30 or 0.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.34 - $63.45 [10] - Ethylene Glycol Market in Zhangjiagang: Next - week spot negotiations were in the range of 3972 - 3974 yuan/ton, and November - end negotiations were also in the range of 3972 - 3974 yuan/ton. The next - week spot basis was at a premium of 50 - 52 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the November - end basis was also at a premium of 50 - 52 yuan/ton compared to EG2601 [10] - Polyester Staple Fiber Market: The futures price of polyester staple fiber increased, the prices of staple fiber factories were stable, the prices of traders were on the warm side, downstream demand was cautious, and the on - site transactions were tepid [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated November 3, 2025, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube markets [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - The global sugar supply surplus expectation dominates the market sentiment. Brazil's new sugarcane harvest has a clear prospect of increased production due to improved weather, and sugar mills tend to increase the sugar - making ratio due to weak ethanol profits. In China, the new sugar season has a clear increase in production, but the tightening of syrup import control policies provides some support for prices. Attention should be paid to policy rhythm changes under the loose supply - demand pattern [3] Price and Spread - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5499 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 0.99%. SB closed at 14.42 with a daily increase of 1.19% and a weekly decrease of 0.35% [4] - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 70, unchanged on the day and up 24 for the week [4] - Sugar basis: On October 31, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 267, down 11 on the day and 37 for the week [9] - Sugar import prices: On November 3, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3990, down 25 on the day and 205 for the week; the out - of - quota price was 5052, down 33 on the day and 267 for the week [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - Under short - term China - US trade consultations, market sentiment may improve. The cotton output in southern Xinjiang in the new year is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new cotton output is still high, and downstream demand is weak. The upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking. Attention should be paid to hedging pressure around 13600 - 13800 and the subsequent new - season production determination [14] Price and Spread - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13600, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13615, up 10 (0.07%); Cotton 09 closed at 13780, up 25 (0.18%) [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 1265, unchanged on the day; the cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 10, unchanged on the day [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The national apple storage is basically completed. This year's national cold - storage estimated storage volume is about 5.5%, 10% lower than last year, with an estimated storage volume of 700 - 780 million tons. Different regions have different storage changes [18] Price and Spread - Apple futures prices: AP01 closed at 9104, down 1.45% on the day and up 1.88% for the week [19] - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 347, unchanged on the day and down 44.75% for the week [20] Group 5: Jujube Market Core View - The new - season jujubes are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. The current new - season production is still the core point of market game. There are few rotten jujubes this season, but the jujubes may be smaller. Short - term price fluctuations may be large. Attention should be paid to the production determination and commodity rate after the new jujubes are harvested [24] Price and Spread - Jujube futures spreads: The jujube futures spread of 01 - 05 shows certain historical trends in different years [25]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged to a record high of $4,381.4 per ounce, closing at $4,355.67 per ounce, up 2.46% due to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing safe-haven demand [1] - Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since early May, with WTI crude down 0.56% to $56.92 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.62% to $60.95 per barrel, amid concerns over potential global supply surplus [1] - Apple’s stock reached a new high, with its market capitalization approaching $4 trillion [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Trump's extreme pressure on Russia triggered supply concerns and pushed up the geopolitical premium, but the implementation of subsequent measures remains to be observed. In the second half, due to the over - rise correction of the market, the non - farm payrolls data in the US falling short of expectations and the downward revision of the previous value, the fear of economic recession reignited, the VIX index soared, and the capital flight impacted the market, leading to the decline of crude oil. The result of the OPEC+ meeting was in line with expectations. It will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the first - stage production restoration ahead of schedule. The subsequent policy will be discussed at the meeting on September 7. Recently, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, tracking the VIX index and the US stocks [4] Market Trends - OPEC+ agreed to continue significant production increases in September and exit the current round of production cuts one year ahead of schedule. Eight member countries of OPEC+ reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking that the organization completed the current - stage supply restoration plan one year ahead of schedule and fully exited the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023, including the UAE's additional phased production increase quota. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December. This production increase marks a strategic shift of OPEC and its partners from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, effectively suppressing the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices [4] - As the oil prices in the Middle East rise, Asia will increase its imports of US WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter. Due to the strong demand for high - sulfur crude oil in Asia, the prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil, the benchmark prices of Middle Eastern crude oil, have risen this month, narrowing the price difference with the low - sulfur light US WTI crude oil. The WTI arbitrage window for Asia has been wide open in the past week, especially for ships arriving in early November. US crude oil producer Occidental Petroleum has sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for delivery in October [5] - The Iranian foreign minister stated that the US needs to compensate for the losses in the conflict before the nuclear negotiations can restart. Iran has set new conditions for restarting the nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. The US must compensate Iran for the losses caused during the Iran - Israel conflict last month. Iran will not agree to resume negotiations without addressing these issues [5] - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.70%, and the previous value was revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in June was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The overall PCE index including food and energy rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, respectively higher than the market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month - on - month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February. Weak spending is due to the cooling of the labor market. Real disposable income remained flat after falling in May, and wages and salaries hardly increased. The July employment report is expected to show a continued slowdown in recruitment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The savings rate remained at 4.5%. After the data was released, the spot gold fluctuated slightly in the short term, and the US dollar index rose slightly in the short term [6] - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week. As of the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 33,959 lots to 261,352 lots. In the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 1,752 lots to 87,840 lots [7] EIA Weekly Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels from the previous week; the total US gasoline inventory was 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil inventory was 113.536 million barrels, an increase of 3.64 million barrels from the previous week. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, an increase of 0.69 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 402.741 million barrels, an increase of 0.24 million barrels. The crude oil inventory was 1.47% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the average of the past five years; the gasoline inventory was 2.08% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the average of the past five years; the distillate oil inventory was 10.49% lower than the same period last year and 16% lower than the average of the past five years [8] - As of the week ending July 25, the US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, an increase of 41,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 14,000 barrels from the same period last year; the total processing volume of US refineries was 16.911 million barrels per day on average, a decrease of 25,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [8] - The increase in the US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025. The decrease in the US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. The increase in domestic crude oil production in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending March 7, 2025 [9]