近几个月来，全球石油市场一直被一种担忧所主导，即在欧佩克+产油国以及其他钻探商增加产量后， 全球供应已经超过了需求。在此背景下，作为主要石油基准的布伦特原油期货去年下跌了18%，创下自 2020年以来的最差年度表现。许多银行目前预计市场将进一步疲软，摩根士丹利本周下调了一系列价格 预测。 中东在整体格局中占据关键地位，因为该地区的出口量约占全球原油的三分之一，且是亚洲炼油商的主 要供应来源。作为当前疲软态势的反映，沙特阿美本周连续第三个月大幅下调了对其亚洲主要客户的销 售价格，将其旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油的价差推至五年来的新低。 区域市场的宽松状态缓解了人们对美国干预委内瑞拉（包括抓获马杜罗和部分封锁油轮）可能中断该南 美国家石油流动的担忧。不过，据交易员称，目前还没有明显迹象表明亚洲买家急于抢购伊拉克巴士拉 原油等替代性的中东品种。 "过剩正在冲击中东市场，基本上所有指标都指向一个更疲软的实物市场，"ING Groep驻新加坡的大宗 商品策略主管Warren Patterson表示。他补充说，这是一个反复出现的主题，"市场参与者似乎并未受到 供应风险的干扰。" 据知情交易员透露，在中东，设定迪拜基准原油价格的 ...

在OPEC+为夺回市场份额而提高产量、市场担忧供应将超过需求的背景下，原油价格仍迈向年度大幅 下跌。 WTI在年末的清淡交投中变动不大，收于接近每桶58美元。 阿联酋表示将从也门撤军，此前沙特要求阿联酋停止支持这个饱受战争蹂躏国家的武装团体。 美国总统特朗普推动的乌克兰和平计划遭遇新障碍，俄罗斯总统普京表示将改变谈判立场。 尽管存在这些风险，据三位代表称，随着全球石油供应过剩迹象日益明显，OPEC+本周末开会时预计 将维持原定的暂停增产计划。 油价企稳，交易员在从委内瑞拉、俄罗斯到也门的地缘政治紧张局势与全球供应过剩担忧之间权衡。铜 价录得2017年以来最长连涨，市场预计供应链可能将面临更多压力，这推动了12月的涨势。白银回升， 之前创下逾五年来最大单日跌幅，持续存在的供应短缺使其仍迈向约35%的月度涨幅。 原油：油价变动不大 地缘政治风险与供应过剩担忧拉锯 油价变动不大，交易员在从委内瑞拉、俄罗斯到也门的地缘政治紧张局势与全球供应过剩担忧之间权 衡。 WTI 2月期货小幅下跌13美分，结算价报每桶57.95美元。 截至收盘，LME期铜上涨2.75%，报12558.5美元/吨。 LME期铝上涨0.95%，报2 ...

非农数据公布后，国际油价快速跳水，WTI原油、布油跌破60美元后加速下挫。现货黄金上扬逾20美元，最高至4330美元/盎司。 12月16日，国际原油期货价格突然直线跳水，截至当日22:04，WTI原油期货日内跌幅达2.06%，现报55.65美元/桶。ICE布油跌近2%报59.62美元/桶，失守 60美元关口，为5月以来首次。 消息面上，据新华财经，12月16日晚9:30，美国公布最新非农数据，11月季调后非农就业人口录得6.4万人，高于市场普遍预期。美国11月失业率录得 4.6%，为2021年9月以来新高。美国劳工统计局下修8月和9月非农数据，两月合计新增就业比初值少3.3万人，8月由-0.4万修正为-2.6万。 申银万国期货分析师董超也认同这一趋势，他认为未来十年，人工智能与算力中心的快速发展将带动全球用电需求快速增长，气电成为许多国家满足电 力供应的重要方式，这将释放天然气需求潜力，并可能因此推迟全球石油需求达峰的时间。 这一轮价格跳水是近期油价持续下行趋势的延续。截至12月15日，ICE布油年内跌幅达19.13%，WTI原油年内跌幅更是扩大至20.97%，两大原油期货品种 均陷入深度调整。 对于本轮油价 ...

12月15日，黄金消息面解析：周一（12月15日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡上涨，目前交投于 4319.17美元/盎司附近。尽管美联储暗示在更多数据出炉前对进一步降息持谨慎态度，但投资者仍预计 明年将有两次降息机会，这为黄金提供了强劲的支撑。作为传统的避险资产，黄金在全球不确定性加剧 的背景下，继续吸引资金流入。上周五（12月12日）金价表现出色，现货黄金上涨0.48%，收报每盎司 4300美元附近，盘中最高触及4353美元/盎司，这是自10月21日以来的最高水平。美国期金也收涨 0.4%，结算价达到4328.3美元。这种上涨势头让黄金多头信心满满，尤其是在美联储上周第三次降息25 个基点后，市场对宽松货币政策的预期进一步升温。 黄金技术面分析：黄金周初大概率维持区间震荡整理，本周数据面迎来密集爆发，周二美国非农数据、 周四CPI数据及周五日本央行利率决议陆续登场，其中日本央行是否开启加息周期成为市场核心聚焦 点。多重重磅数据共振影响下，黄金行情波动预计显著加剧，消息面或触发单边行情，操作需严控风 险、灵活应对。回顾前期走势，金价曾于4380关口两次承压回落，形成经典"双顶"看空形态，随后价格 下探至3900 ...

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - At present, the supply - demand and cost side of ethylene glycol lack support, and it is expected that the ethylene glycol price will maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For EG2601, the closing price was 3922 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan, with a position of 338,660 contracts, a decrease of 19,433 contracts. For EG2605, the closing price was 4013 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan, with a position of 43,902 contracts, an increase of 64 contracts. On the 14th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 3903 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3946 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3965 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 3924 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 3922 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 223,785 lots, and the position was 338,660 lots [7] 2. Industry News - No industry news content is provided in the available report. 3. Data Overview - International Oil Prices: On Thursday (November 13), the settlement price of the December 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.69 per barrel, up $0.20 or 0.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.12 - $59.21. The settlement price of the January 2026 Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange in London was $63.01 per barrel, up $0.30 or 0.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.34 - $63.45 [10] - Ethylene Glycol Market in Zhangjiagang: Next - week spot negotiations were in the range of 3972 - 3974 yuan/ton, and November - end negotiations were also in the range of 3972 - 3974 yuan/ton. The next - week spot basis was at a premium of 50 - 52 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the November - end basis was also at a premium of 50 - 52 yuan/ton compared to EG2601 [10] - Polyester Staple Fiber Market: The futures price of polyester staple fiber increased, the prices of staple fiber factories were stable, the prices of traders were on the warm side, downstream demand was cautious, and the on - site transactions were tepid [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated November 3, 2025, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube markets [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - The global sugar supply surplus expectation dominates the market sentiment. Brazil's new sugarcane harvest has a clear prospect of increased production due to improved weather, and sugar mills tend to increase the sugar - making ratio due to weak ethanol profits. In China, the new sugar season has a clear increase in production, but the tightening of syrup import control policies provides some support for prices. Attention should be paid to policy rhythm changes under the loose supply - demand pattern [3] Price and Spread - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5499 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 0.99%. SB closed at 14.42 with a daily increase of 1.19% and a weekly decrease of 0.35% [4] - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 70, unchanged on the day and up 24 for the week [4] - Sugar basis: On October 31, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 267, down 11 on the day and 37 for the week [9] - Sugar import prices: On November 3, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3990, down 25 on the day and 205 for the week; the out - of - quota price was 5052, down 33 on the day and 267 for the week [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - Under short - term China - US trade consultations, market sentiment may improve. The cotton output in southern Xinjiang in the new year is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new cotton output is still high, and downstream demand is weak. The upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking. Attention should be paid to hedging pressure around 13600 - 13800 and the subsequent new - season production determination [14] Price and Spread - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13600, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13615, up 10 (0.07%); Cotton 09 closed at 13780, up 25 (0.18%) [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 1265, unchanged on the day; the cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 10, unchanged on the day [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The national apple storage is basically completed. This year's national cold - storage estimated storage volume is about 5.5%, 10% lower than last year, with an estimated storage volume of 700 - 780 million tons. Different regions have different storage changes [18] Price and Spread - Apple futures prices: AP01 closed at 9104, down 1.45% on the day and up 1.88% for the week [19] - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 347, unchanged on the day and down 44.75% for the week [20] Group 5: Jujube Market Core View - The new - season jujubes are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. The current new - season production is still the core point of market game. There are few rotten jujubes this season, but the jujubes may be smaller. Short - term price fluctuations may be large. Attention should be paid to the production determination and commodity rate after the new jujubes are harvested [24] Price and Spread - Jujube futures spreads: The jujube futures spread of 01 - 05 shows certain historical trends in different years [25]

白宫官员：停摆可能在本周结束；若未结束将考虑采取更强硬措施。 哈马斯正在埃及讨论加沙停火协议下一阶段内容，涉及解除武装。 欧盟成员国支持在2028年1月前逐步停止进口俄罗斯天然气。 苹果股价创新高，市值接近4万亿美元。 10月21日资讯分享 周一，受美联储将进一步降息的预期和持续的避险需求提振，现货黄金突破上周五的纪录高位，触及 4381.4美元/盎司，最终收涨2.46%，报4355.67美元/盎司； 因投资者担忧全球供应过剩的可能性，油价周一收于5月初以来的最低水平。WTI原油最终收跌0.56%， 报56.92美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌0.62%，报60.95美元/桶。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Trump's extreme pressure on Russia triggered supply concerns and pushed up the geopolitical premium, but the implementation of subsequent measures remains to be observed. In the second half, due to the over - rise correction of the market, the non - farm payrolls data in the US falling short of expectations and the downward revision of the previous value, the fear of economic recession reignited, the VIX index soared, and the capital flight impacted the market, leading to the decline of crude oil. The result of the OPEC+ meeting was in line with expectations. It will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the first - stage production restoration ahead of schedule. The subsequent policy will be discussed at the meeting on September 7. Recently, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, tracking the VIX index and the US stocks [4] Market Trends - OPEC+ agreed to continue significant production increases in September and exit the current round of production cuts one year ahead of schedule. Eight member countries of OPEC+ reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking that the organization completed the current - stage supply restoration plan one year ahead of schedule and fully exited the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023, including the UAE's additional phased production increase quota. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December. This production increase marks a strategic shift of OPEC and its partners from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, effectively suppressing the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices [4] - As the oil prices in the Middle East rise, Asia will increase its imports of US WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter. Due to the strong demand for high - sulfur crude oil in Asia, the prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil, the benchmark prices of Middle Eastern crude oil, have risen this month, narrowing the price difference with the low - sulfur light US WTI crude oil. The WTI arbitrage window for Asia has been wide open in the past week, especially for ships arriving in early November. US crude oil producer Occidental Petroleum has sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for delivery in October [5] - The Iranian foreign minister stated that the US needs to compensate for the losses in the conflict before the nuclear negotiations can restart. Iran has set new conditions for restarting the nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. The US must compensate Iran for the losses caused during the Iran - Israel conflict last month. Iran will not agree to resume negotiations without addressing these issues [5] - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.70%, and the previous value was revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in June was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The overall PCE index including food and energy rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, respectively higher than the market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month - on - month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February. Weak spending is due to the cooling of the labor market. Real disposable income remained flat after falling in May, and wages and salaries hardly increased. The July employment report is expected to show a continued slowdown in recruitment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The savings rate remained at 4.5%. After the data was released, the spot gold fluctuated slightly in the short term, and the US dollar index rose slightly in the short term [6] - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week. As of the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 33,959 lots to 261,352 lots. In the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 1,752 lots to 87,840 lots [7] EIA Weekly Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels from the previous week; the total US gasoline inventory was 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil inventory was 113.536 million barrels, an increase of 3.64 million barrels from the previous week. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, an increase of 0.69 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 402.741 million barrels, an increase of 0.24 million barrels. The crude oil inventory was 1.47% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the average of the past five years; the gasoline inventory was 2.08% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the average of the past five years; the distillate oil inventory was 10.49% lower than the same period last year and 16% lower than the average of the past five years [8] - As of the week ending July 25, the US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, an increase of 41,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 14,000 barrels from the same period last year; the total processing volume of US refineries was 16.911 million barrels per day on average, a decrease of 25,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [8] - The increase in the US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025. The decrease in the US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. The increase in domestic crude oil production in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending March 7, 2025 [9]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that global oil inventories have rapidly expanded in recent months, primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing prices to remain stable for now [1] - Analysts question whether the oil market is truly tight or not, noting that while global inventories increased by approximately 235 million barrels over five months ending in June, only 10% of this growth occurred in the OECD region, which is crucial for price formation [1] - Despite expectations of a global supply surplus in the coming quarters, the current market structure shows spot prices higher than forward prices, indicating a tight market [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel, with projections of $60 per barrel for all four quarters in 2026 [2] - In recent months, non-OECD countries have added about 100 million barrels to their inventories, with China alone accounting for 48 million barrels [3] - The increase in "floating oil" has also risen by 106 million barrels, reflecting changes in market dynamics [3]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. soybean and corn futures have hit multi-month lows, while wheat futures have declined for the fourth consecutive day, raising concerns about global supply surplus and the potential continuation of the downward price trend [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - U.S. soybean futures have reached a low not seen in several months, indicating a significant drop in market value [1] - U.S. corn futures have also touched multi-month lows, reflecting similar downward pressure in the market [1] - Wheat futures have experienced a decline for four consecutive days, suggesting a persistent bearish trend in this commodity [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - There is an increasing worry about global supply surplus, which is contributing to the downward pressure on prices across these commodities [1] - The article raises the question of whether the current price decline trend will continue, indicating uncertainty in the market outlook [1]