Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The tail risk of the Iran situation has risen sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and the continuous rise in oil prices has driven oil chemicals and oilseeds, also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the Two Sessions. The A - share index has a negative average return during the Two Sessions, while the commodity index has a low sample - rising probability. After the Two Sessions, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 lead in terms of gains and win - rates [1]. - The US GDP in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased. Rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts. China's January social financing had a good start, and the February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. The February CPI rose to 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decline continued to narrow to 0.9% [1]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices show an inverse correlation. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and black commodities should focus on domestic policy expectations and undervalued repair [2]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran counterattacked. Multiple energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas were damaged, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz was seriously blocked. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and the US may increase troops. The UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have cut production [1]. - The new supreme leader of Iran is Mujtaba Khamenei, and Trump threatened to take military action to seize enriched uranium. Trump said he would make a decision to end the military action against Iran at an "appropriate time" [1]. - Affected by the rising energy prices, the South Korean government is considering implementing an oil price cap for the first time in nearly 30 years, and President Lee Jae - myung said he would expand the 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if necessary [1]. - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [1]. Commodity Analysis - The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices are inversely correlated. The US has conditionally relaxed sanctions on Venezuelan gold trading [2]. - In the energy sector, continue to focus on the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. Rising oil prices drive oil chemicals and oilseeds. The black commodity sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and undervalued repair [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [3] To - Do News - Iraq's oil production has dropped to 1.7 - 1.8 million barrels per day from about 4.3 million barrels per day before the US - Israel attack on Iran [5]. - Trump said he would make a decision to end the military action against Iran at an "appropriate time" and that it would be a decision jointly made with Netanyahu [5]. - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.8%. The PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [5]. - Iran's Experts Assembly elected Mujtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader [5]. - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung said he would expand the 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if necessary and called for measures to deal with foreign exchange and market fluctuations and implement oil product price limits [5].