Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend, with both futures and spot prices rising. The drivers are from two aspects: macroscopically, geopolitical conflicts have pushed up energy prices and spread to the commodity market; industrially, construction steel presents a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, and inventory accumulation slowing down". The current production and inventory levels are at the lowest in the same period of the past five years, providing support for prices [1]. - Looking ahead, there are disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost side continues to rise. Construction sites are gradually resuming work, the spot trading of building materials is gradually recovering, and the apparent demand has returned to the level of the same period last year, but it is still in the off - season. Geopolitical conflicts still have great uncertainties, and the US has launched a new trade investigation, which is negative for steel exports. After the Two Sessions, there is still room for blast furnace复产, the upward driving force of the futures market is limited, and there is pressure after the price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend, with both futures and spot prices rising. The driving factors are macro - geopolitical conflicts and industrial "supply - demand and inventory" patterns [1]. - In the future, furnace material supply is disturbed, cost rises, construction site work resumes, but it is still in the off - season. Geopolitical conflicts and US trade investigations are negative for exports. After the Two Sessions, there is room for blast furnace复产, and the futures price has pressure after the rebound [1]. 2. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 221.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 million tons, or - 2.81%. The inventory of rebar steel mills was 239.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons, or 0.71%. The social inventory of rebar was 654.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.80 million tons, or 2.63%. The inventory of hot - rolled coil steel mills was 89.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.80 million tons, or - 0.89%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons, or 0.18% [3]. 3. Market Review - **Futures Market**: The report presents multiple charts related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, the price difference between 05 and 10 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the disk, and the speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][7][9]. - **Spot Market**: The report shows charts of the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price in Shanghai, the rebar basis, and the hot - rolled coil basis [12][13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report includes charts of the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, seasonal analysis of rebar and hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory, and seasonal analysis of rebar and hot - rolled coil social inventory [15][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core View - Steel demand is gradually starting, and it is expected that finished products and iron ore will oscillate upward. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation, with a focus on daily building material transactions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore continued to close higher. The night session opened higher with a gap and closed with a negative line [1] Important Information - As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 42.5%, a month-on-month increase of 19 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 percentage points. The labor attendance rate was 43.9%, a month-on-month increase of 14.2 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 percentage points. The fund arrival rate was 42.8%, a month-on-month increase of 7.4 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [1] - US President Trump said that Powell should immediately cut interest rates instead of waiting for the next Fed meeting to do so [1] Market Logic - Iron ore cargo ships originally bound for the Middle East have changed their course to China, and attention should be paid to the impact on iron ore supply [1] - This week, rebar production, inventory, and apparent demand all increased. Production increased significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 21.99 tons. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down significantly. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 78.58 tons week-on-week, indicating that rebar demand has started. Overall, the current rebar inventory pressure is not large [1] - Hot-rolled coil production this week was 2.9526 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 58,500 tons, with two consecutive weeks of decline. The total inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week. The factory inventory was 892,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,000 tons, and the social inventory was 3.8231 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased slightly, and the total inventory remained basically flat. The apparent demand this week was 2.9536 million tons, an increase of 137,900 tons from last week, almost the same as the production, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand for hot-rolled coils [1] - After the Two Sessions, iron production is likely to rebound rapidly, and it is estimated that the incremental demand for iron ore will be significant [1] - The increase in crude oil prices has increased the transportation cost of iron ore [1] - The forward price of iron ore continued to rise, breaking through $110 [1] - This week, the daily iron production was 2.212 million tons, a weekly decrease of 63,900 tons. Production restrictions during the Two Sessions were an important factor, which stimulated the market to open higher [1] Trading Strategy - The demand for steel products is gradually starting. It is expected that finished products and iron ore will oscillate upward. Continue to pay attention to the demand recovery situation, with a focus on daily building material transactions. The support level for rebar is 3,000, and the resistance level is 3,200. The support level for hot-rolled coils is 3,180, and the resistance level is 3,300. The support level for iron ore is 730, and the resistance level is 800. Pay attention to whether the resistance levels can be broken [1] - Single position: Hold existing long positions in rebar and hot-rolled coils, and set stop-loss levels [1] - Arbitrage: The supply of hot-rolled coils is shrinking, demand is recovering, and the inventory pressure is less than that of rebar, with a better supply-demand structure. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to widen. Hold existing long hot-rolled coil and short rebar arbitrage positions, and it is recommended to raise the stop-loss level to 120 and the take-profit level to over 200 [1]

Investment Highlights - In February 2026, the equity market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across indices, while the bond market saw increased volatility. Most major indices recorded gains except for the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices, which declined. The steel, building materials, and machinery sectors led the gains with increases of 9.52%, 7.72%, and 7.56% respectively, while media, non-bank financials, and consumer services sectors faced deeper declines of -4.22%, -3.48%, and -3.37% respectively [1][6][8] Equity Market Review - The A-share market is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation pattern in March 2026, supported by increased liquidity and policy expectations from the National People's Congress. Key focus areas include price increases driven by geopolitical tensions, sectors benefiting from AI technology maturity, and policy implementation post-NPC [2][12][15] Bond Market Review - The bond market in February saw decreased trading activity due to the Spring Festival, but strong liquidity support from the central bank helped maintain stability. The 10-year government bond yield briefly fell below 1.80%. Major bond fund indices showed positive performance, with the long-term pure bond fund index rising by 0.17%, and the convertible bond fund index increasing by 1.17% [8][20] Fund Performance Overview - The active equity fund indices showed a slight increase in February, with the active stock fund index rising by 1.20%. The market's risk appetite improved post-Spring Festival, leading to a recovery in equity performance, particularly in resource-related sectors [7][17] Thematic Fund Performance - The military industry theme fund ranked first in performance due to geopolitical tensions and the commercial aerospace sector's growth. Environmental theme funds also performed well, while the AI application sector faced a downturn due to concerns over profitability and regulatory scrutiny [9][11] Fund Index Construction - The active equity fund selection index aims to balance value, growth, and balanced styles, focusing on performance competitiveness and stability. The short-term bond fund index is designed to provide stable returns with low risk, while the medium to long-term bond fund index focuses on balancing yield and risk control [16][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore closed higher on Wednesday and in the night session. It is expected that finished products and iron ore will oscillate with a bullish bias, and the demand recovery situation should be continuously monitored [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore closed higher, and also closed higher in the night session [1] Important Information - In February, 1062 projects started nationwide with a total investment of about 514.6 billion yuan [1] - Mysteel surveyed 22 manufacturing enterprises in Shandong Province. In February 2026, the scrap steel output of the sample enterprises was 20,300 tons, a decrease of 7,200 tons or 26.2% from the previous month, and a decrease of 2,000 tons or 8.69% from the same period last year [1] - According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 14 key real estate enterprises from January to February 2026 were 118.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7%; the total sales in February were 50.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 25.6% [1] - Shagang released the ex-factory prices for the middle of March. The prices of rebar, wire rod coils, and wire rods remained stable. The current ex-factory price of HRB400 Ф16 - 20mm rebar is 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China. Currently, there have been four ship rerouting incidents [1] Market Logic - Iron ore cargo ships originally bound for the Middle East are now heading to China. Attention should be paid to the impact on iron ore supply [1] - In March, affected by the relatively slow pace of resuming work and production after the Spring Festival and the convening of important meetings, the demand for construction steel products started slowly, showing a moderate recovery trend overall [1] - After the Two Sessions, the molten iron output may increase rapidly, and it is estimated that the incremental demand for iron ore will be significant [1] - The rise in crude oil prices increases the transportation cost of iron ore [1] Trading Strategies - It is expected that finished products and iron ore will oscillate with a bullish bias. The support level for rebar is 3,000 and the resistance level is 3,200. The support level for hot-rolled coils is 3,180 and the resistance level is 3,300. The support level for iron ore is 730 and the resistance level is 800 [1] - For single-sided trading, existing long positions in rebar and hot-rolled coils should be continued to hold with stop-loss set [1] - For arbitrage, the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 154. Long hot-rolled coils and short rebar arbitrage orders should be continued to hold. It is recommended to raise the stop-loss to 120 and set the take-profit at over 200 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook and policy measures related to China's economy for 2026, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and various sectors such as real estate, finance, and emerging industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target for 2026**: The GDP growth target is set between 4.5% and 5%, allowing flexibility for structural adjustments and risk prevention [4][5][19]. 2. **Fiscal Policy Adjustments**: The fiscal deficit rate remains at 4%, with an increase in the deficit scale by 230 billion to support economic stability and risk mitigation [5][6]. 3. **Real Estate Market Adjustments**: The real estate market has undergone significant adjustments, with a 17.2% decline in real estate development investment in 2025, creating conditions for structural adjustments [2][3]. 4. **Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)**: CPI showed a positive trend at 1.3% in February 2026, while PPI was at -0.9%, indicating potential for recovery in pricing [2]. 5. **Investment in Emerging Industries**: The focus is on new quality productivity, with significant investments planned in sectors like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and green energy, aiming for a doubling of the scale from 6 trillion to over 10 trillion by 2030 [8][17]. 6. **Green Energy Initiatives**: The shift towards carbon emission control includes a target of reducing carbon emissions by 3.8% in 2026, with a total target of 17% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][15]. 7. **Support for Consumption and Investment**: Measures include a 2,500 billion long-term bond for trade-in programs and a new 1,000 billion fund to stimulate consumption and small business loans [7][19]. 8. **Reform of Consumption Tax**: Plans to eliminate consumption tax on non-luxury items and shift tax collection from production to consumption, with a potential revenue-sharing model between central and local governments [19][20]. 9. **National Unified Market Construction**: Emphasis on building a unified national market to prevent local government competition and ensure fair market practices [10][19]. 10. **State-Owned Enterprise Reforms**: Increasing the proportion of state-owned capital revenue from 25% to 30%, with 80% of new investments directed towards strategic emerging industries [12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Risk Management Focus**: The government is prioritizing risk management in four areas: small financial institutions, real estate, local government debt, and public safety [6][16]. 2. **Technological Innovation and Infrastructure**: Significant investments in digital and intelligent transformation of industries, with a focus on modern infrastructure development [8][10]. 3. **Encouragement of Local Government Initiatives**: Local governments are encouraged to utilize existing assets for affordable housing, though current enthusiasm is low due to a preference for new projects [15]. 4. **Long-term Energy Strategy**: The development of hydrogen energy and methanol as new fuel sources is highlighted, with a focus on creating a sustainable energy system [9][17]. 5. **Investment in Low-altitude Economy**: The low-altitude economy is recognized as an emerging industry with broad application scenarios, including military uses [9]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed in the conference call, reflecting the government's approach to navigating economic challenges and fostering growth in emerging sectors.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The tail risk of the Iran situation has risen sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and the continuous rise in oil prices has driven oil chemicals and oilseeds, also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the Two Sessions. The A - share index has a negative average return during the Two Sessions, while the commodity index has a low sample - rising probability. After the Two Sessions, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 lead in terms of gains and win - rates [1]. - The US GDP in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased. Rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts. China's January social financing had a good start, and the February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. The February CPI rose to 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decline continued to narrow to 0.9% [1]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices show an inverse correlation. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and black commodities should focus on domestic policy expectations and undervalued repair [2]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran counterattacked. Multiple energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas were damaged, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz was seriously blocked. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and the US may increase troops. The UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have cut production [1]. - The new supreme leader of Iran is Mujtaba Khamenei, and Trump threatened to take military action to seize enriched uranium. Trump said he would make a decision to end the military action against Iran at an "appropriate time" [1]. - Affected by the rising energy prices, the South Korean government is considering implementing an oil price cap for the first time in nearly 30 years, and President Lee Jae - myung said he would expand the 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if necessary [1]. - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [1]. Commodity Analysis - The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices are inversely correlated. The US has conditionally relaxed sanctions on Venezuelan gold trading [2]. - In the energy sector, continue to focus on the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. Rising oil prices drive oil chemicals and oilseeds. The black commodity sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and undervalued repair [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [3] To - Do News - Iraq's oil production has dropped to 1.7 - 1.8 million barrels per day from about 4.3 million barrels per day before the US - Israel attack on Iran [5]. - Trump said he would make a decision to end the military action against Iran at an "appropriate time" and that it would be a decision jointly made with Netanyahu [5]. - In February, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.8%. The PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [5]. - Iran's Experts Assembly elected Mujtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader [5]. - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung said he would expand the 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if necessary and called for measures to deal with foreign exchange and market fluctuations and implement oil product price limits [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of iron ore prices is supported by the marginal improvement of demand after the two - sessions and the expected increase in shipping costs due to the Iranian conflict, but the medium - and long - term trends depend on the intensity of steel mill resumption, the recovery rhythm of hot metal production, and the actual fulfillment of terminal demand. High inventory pressure restricts price increases. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - On March 10, 2026, I2701 was at 741.0 (up 12.0 from March 6), I2605 at 784.5 (up 12.5), I2609 at 758.0 (up 11.5). The night - session futures of iron ore i2605 closed at 786 yuan/ton, and i2609 at 760.5 yuan/ton, with an i2605 - i2609 spread of 25.5 yuan. [1][2] - The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 772 (+8) yuan/ton on March 9, 2026, and the discounted standard product (factory warehouse) was 803 yuan. The optimal delivery product IOC6, when converted to a warehouse receipt (factory warehouse), was 792 yuan. [2] 2. Spot Market Transactions and Price Changes - On March 9, 2026, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 68.70 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 11.62 tons, a 60.1% increase from the previous day. [2] - On March 9, 2026, the iron ore spot prices rebounded, with increases ranging from 4 - 8 yuan. [3] 3. Shipping and Inventory Data - From March 2 - 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipping volume was 2897.8 tons, a decrease of 442.9 tons from the previous period. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2342.1 tons, a decrease of 348.5 tons from the previous period. [2] - From March 2 - 8, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2697.5 tons, an increase of 467.5 tons from the previous period. [2] - As of March 6, 2026, the total iron ore inventory was 17118 tons (up 26 tons from February 27), Australian ore inventory was 8083 tons (down 4 tons), Brazilian ore inventory was 5320 tons (down 9 tons), and trader inventory was 11360 tons (up 84 tons). [1] 4. Other Important Information - Starting from March 10, 2026, Shagang raised the scrap steel price by 50 yuan/ton. [2] - Assuming normal crude oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz at 15 million barrels per day and a replaceable volume of 4 million barrels per day through Saudi - UAE pipelines, 11 million barrels per day of crude oil shipping would be blocked. The global crude oil supply might drop to 94 million barrels per day in the short term, creating a supply gap of 9.5 million barrels per day if demand remains unchanged. [3]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 6, 2026 - A-share market: The three major A-share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 4124.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59% to 14172.63 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.38% to 3229.30 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 193.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index futures: The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 4660.44, a rise of 12.75 [2] 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted coke index trended stronger, closing at 1705.3, a rise of 24.3. Coke production increased, but inventory pressure emerged. Steel mills' demand was mainly for rigid needs and was suppressed [4] - Coking coal: The weighted coking coal index was strong, closing at 1145.0 yuan, a rise of 20.0. Domestic coal mine production resumed, but imports were limited. Inventory was mixed, and costs were rising [5] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose. As of February 28, Guangxi's sugar production and sales decreased year-on-year [5][6] 2.3 Rubber - Due to factors like large short - term gains and global economic uncertainty, Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly higher. The inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber changed [6] 2.4 Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean prices rose. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main contract rose. Inventory decreased, and costs provided support [6] 2.5 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract rose slightly. The market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with sufficient supply and weak post - holiday demand [6] 2.6 Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low, fluctuated, and then rebounded. Domestic supply increased, inventory accumulated, and downstream demand was weak [6] 2.7 Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15310 yuan/ton. Inventory increased, and global cotton consumption was affected by conflicts [6][7] 2.8 Logs - The log 2605 main contract had certain price fluctuations. Spot prices were stable, and future factors to be concerned about were mentioned [7] 2.9 Iron Ore - The iron ore 2605 main contract rose. Shipping increased, arrivals decreased, and prices were in a volatile trend due to production restrictions [7] 2.10 Asphalt - The asphalt 2604 main contract rose. Refinery production resumed, and prices might follow oil prices [7] 2.11 Alumina - The alumina market was in a situation of increasing supply and demand. Bauxite prices might be supported, and domestic supply and demand both increased [7] 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market also had a situation of increasing supply and demand. Supply might increase slightly, and demand was expected to recover [7] 2.13 Steel - Steel prices were volatile during the Two Sessions. After the Two Sessions, prices would return to fundamentals, and pressure remained. Demand recovery was to be observed [7][8]

Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the Two Sessions on future PPI judgments and market styles, indicating that a broad fiscal increase of at least 5% of GDP is necessary for a stimulative policy, while the 2025 fiscal increase was only 1%, leading to limited PPI support [2] - The report categorizes sectors into four groups: (1) Cyclical sectors may still outperform but require monitoring for PPI peak timing, (2) Growth sectors are entering a high volatility phase but the market trend is not over, (3) Financial sectors should lower expectations, and (4) Consumer sectors need dynamic responses and data tracking [2] Sector Analysis - **Cyclical Sector**: Currently favored, but requires observation of PPI peak timing [2] - **Growth Sector**: Entering a phase of high volatility, but the market trend remains intact [2] - **Financial Sector**: Expectations should be adjusted downwards [2] - **Consumer Sector**: Requires dynamic responses and continuous data monitoring [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to decline, while bond prices are expected to rise. Stock index futures may stabilize due to domestic positive policies, with a suggestion to hold light long positions. For treasury bond futures, with sufficient liquidity and low market interest rates, and considering external turmoil, light long positions are also recommended [116][118] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices have fallen from high levels [9] - The CSI 500 index has also fallen from high levels, while treasury bond futures have continued to rebound [14] 2. Market Momentum Analysis - The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have declined [19] - The trading volumes of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have decreased [22] - The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion yuan [26] - The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have significantly dropped [30] - The sectors of the CSI 300 are relatively consistent [37] - The ALPHA values of the energy, materials, industrial, and telecommunications sectors of the CSI 300 are positive, while those of the optional, consumer, pharmaceutical, financial, and information sectors are negative [40] - In February, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 5 [45] 3. Fundamental Major Events - The implied repo rate (IRR) of the next - quarter 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of the 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [78][80] - The weighted inter - bank repo rate has slightly declined [86] - The short - term Shibor has slightly dropped [91] - In January, the CPI was 0.2%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.4% [95] - In February, the PMI dropped to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, indicating weak economic recovery [99] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, showing a decline in consumption data [104] - Consumer confidence is on an upward trend [108] - In January, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9%, and credit accelerated. M1 was 4.9%. The newly added RMB loans in January were 4.71 trillion yuan [111][112] 4. Outlook for the Future - The trading volume of the stock market is shrinking, with less than 2.2 trillion yuan. Due to the intensification of the US - Iran war, global capital markets have declined significantly. However, with the continuous introduction of positive policies during the Two Sessions in China, the stock market is expected to stabilize. It is recommended to hold light long positions in stock index futures. For treasury bond futures, with sufficient liquidity and low domestic market interest rates, and considering external turmoil, it is also recommended to hold light long positions [118]