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五矿期货农产品早报:2025-10-15-20251015
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 01:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and protein meals, the domestic supply pressure is high, and the global soybean supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, there is some support, and the market will mainly move in a range [2][3][4]. - For oils, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost in soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center. In the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, while in the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see [5][6]. - For sugar, with the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season starting, the northern hemisphere's main producing countries are expected to increase production, and Brazil's central - southern region's production is at a historical high. A strategy of selling on rebounds in the fourth quarter is recommended [10][11]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals, including low demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, low downstream industry operating rates, and high selling - hedging pressure from the expected domestic bumper harvest, the cotton price is likely to decline in the short - term [13][14]. - For eggs, in the short - term, a bearish view on near - term contracts is recommended. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound, and in the long - term, selling on rebounds is advisable [16][17][19]. - For pigs, the supply pressure is high in the fourth quarter. For near - term contracts, reduce short positions, and consider a positive spread strategy after the spot price stabilizes. For far - term contracts, a reverse spread strategy is recommended [20][21]. Summary by Category Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations. On Tuesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume to be 2.1674 million tons this week. Brazil's ANEC expects the country's soybean exports in October to be 7.31 million tons [2][3]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, sell on rebounds; in the short - term, the market will move in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month. As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2651 million tons, a 1.31% increase, and the palm oil commercial inventory was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons. On Tuesday, domestic oils rebounded. Indonesia is considering implementing DMO for the 2026 B50 policy. Trump considered banning edible oils from China [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, buy on dips; in the short - term, wait and see [6]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The spot price of sugar in major regions also declined. As of October 14, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang and 11 in Inner Mongolia had started operation. The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of September is expected to reach 3.05 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The downstream industry's operating rates were lower than the same period in previous years. The cotton weekly commercial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a decrease compared to the same period last year and the five - year average [13]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price is likely to decline in the short - term [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable, with a few fluctuations. The market supply was normal, and the trading speed increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on near - term contracts in the short - term; expect a medium - term rebound; sell on rebounds in the long - term [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend. The secondary fattening enthusiasm was slowly rising, and the market trading activity was fair [20]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts; consider a positive spread strategy after the spot price stabilizes; a reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts [21].