投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-10-10 昨日棕油领涨油脂市场，关注MPOB报告 油脂：昨日棕油领涨油脂市场，关注MPOB报告 蛋白粕：节后现货回稳，盘面低位震荡 玉米/淀粉：新粮卖压来袭，震荡偏弱 生猪：节后消费淡季，猪价下跌 天然橡胶：关注节后下游表现 合成橡胶：区间震荡格局不改 棉花：棉价承压走弱 白糖：糖价反弹 纸浆：市场心态疲软，纸浆维持下跌 双胶纸：招标提振有限，双胶纸偏弱震荡 原木：现货涨价提振，原木表现偏强 【异动品种】 油脂观点：昨⽇棕油领涨油脂市场，关注MPOB报告 逻辑：因近期美⾖和美⾖油反弹，印尼官员表⽰该国将在2026年强制推⾏ ⽣柴B50政策，及预期⻢棕9⽉库存环⽐回落，昨⽇棕油领涨油脂市场。 从宏观环境看，美国联邦政府仍处于"停摆"状态，叠加地缘与经济不确 定性加剧，近⽇美元持续⾛强，原油价格震荡盘整。从产业端看，受美国 政府"停摆"影响，近期美⾖数据暂停更新，但从今年以来美⾖优良率及 天⽓等条件看，后期美⾖单产和产量下调概率较⼤，⼜市场对美国政府给 予农⺠的⼀揽⼦援助计划和需求改善抱有希望，近⽇美⾖和美⾖油反弹提 振国内油 ...

油脂市场点评: 印尼生柴政策预期利好,棕油领涨油脂市场 2025/10/09 刘高超 刘刚芳 从业资格号:F3011329 从业资格号:F03110661 投资咨询号: Z0012689 投资咨询号: Z0022137 究 王聪颖 李艺华 员 程也 从业资格号 F0254714 从业资格号F03086449 从业资格号: F03087739 投资咨询号 Z0002180 投资咨询号 Z0019380 投资咨询号: Z0019480 = | x | n = | x | n | 40 / x = | nk 出脂目价壳走势 人 湘 胆 斯 TI 正 标油洁联合约收盘价(元/吨) 日语古朗 當价(工/吨) 第中日油(元/陣) 11000 10500 10:50 2000 1500 10000 9501 10100 500 -500 -100 8000 1500 7500 7000 NONONO F = 025/04/ 025/06/ 025/01/ 025/03/ 025/04/ 2025/05/ 025/06/ 025/08/ 2025/01/ 025/02/ 025/03/ 025/05/ 025/07/ 025 ...

与此同时，美国的财政状况也在恶化。政府停摆至今已造成超过150亿美元的经济损失，而更为严重的 是，美国的债务问题变得越来越难以承受。美债的回报持续下降，投资者对美国国债的信心大幅缩水。 尤其是中国已经连续8个月在减持美债，全球资本对美国的信心正不断下降，这使得美国的债务问题更 加棘手。 当前，美国的局势正面临一连串的挑战和不确定因素，而这些问题可能还只是一个开始，未来的冲突和 对抗预计会更加激烈。 首先，美国的"政府关门"危机继续发酵，已导致许多人生活受困。由于政府停摆，超过130万名军人未 能领取薪水，甚至一些军人家庭为了获得食物援助，不得不在食品发放点排队。美国的国防和其他军种 已经出现了一些高层将领的辞职，包括美国空军和特种作战司令部的高级指挥官。这一情况让外界担 心，如果停摆持续下去，可能会对美军造成更大的冲击和混乱。 除了经济困境，美国的外交关系也面临挑战。欧洲一些国家对美国未来的经济和政治前景产生了疑虑。 尤其是在意大利和瑞士，欧洲国家开始主动寻求与中国的合作，显示出它们对美国的失望。这种变化表 明，欧洲正在重新评估与美国的关系，并探索与中国加强合作的可能性。 在这样复杂的国内外局势下，特朗普显得 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 农产品早报 2025-10-09 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 【行情资讯】 国庆假日期间 CBOT 大豆较节前收盘上涨约 2%，估值较低及特朗普提出将与中国讨论大豆贸易吸引逢低 买盘。特朗普本周三在社交媒体上表示，大豆问题将成为他四周后与中国会晤时讨论的主要议题。国内 豆粕现货小幅下跌 10-20 元/吨，局部上涨，华东报 2930-2950 元/吨左右涨 20 元。 杨泽元 咨询机构 AgRural 周一表示，截至 10 月 2 日，2025/26 年度巴西大豆播种进度达到全国总播种面积的 9%， 高于一周前的 3.2%，也高于去年同期的 4%。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、中美贸易关系 及巴西种 ...

前言 10月2日，一直对关税"挺满意"的美国财长贝森特，竟主动放话说中美谈判要有"重大突破"。 此外，贝森特还在媒体前透露，中美高层将会在短时间内有所互动，显然对中美谈判结果势在必得。 是什么让贝森特态度如此反常 ？美方这次又在打什么主意？ 一个月内变脸比翻书还快 说变脸就变脸，比川剧还快。就在8月20日，贝森特还一副胸有成竹的样子，对媒体表示他对当前的关税水平"感到满意"。 话音还没落地多久，10月2日这天，同一个人却在镜头前信誓旦旦地预告，中美下一轮贸易谈判将会有"相当大的突破"。这前后不过40多天，态度转变之 快，让人都有点跟不上节奏。 更有意思的是，贝森特这次不光是口头上松口，还专门提到了农产品采购这个敏感话题。要知道，大豆贸易一直是中美经贸关系的晴雨表，也是美国农民最 关心的生计问题。 现在贝森特主动把这事儿拿出来说，说明什么？说明这事儿已经不能再拖了，压力大到了必须要正面回应的地步。从政策制定的角度看，财政部长这种级别 的官员，每一次公开表态都不是随口说说的。 特别是涉及到对华政策这种敏感话题，更是需要经过内部充分协调才会对外发声。那么问题来了，是什么样的压力，能让一个原本"满意"的人，在短短一个 ...

∗ 近端交易逻辑 1.目前近月现实供应端来看，全国进口大豆港口与油厂库存保持高位，油厂压榨量继续回升，豆粕延续季节性 累库趋势。菜粕自身跟随豆粕走弱，但较豆粕略强。 2.需求端来看，下游饲料厂、渠道与下游库存前期备货较多，节前备货基本结束，后续预计采买情绪有限。 3.交易所库存来看，在仓单集中注销月过后，豆菜粕各自仓单压力再度回升，使得近月供应压力叙事主导盘 南华期货油料产业周报 ——阿根廷免税窗口关闭，巴西加速播种 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前豆粕盘面交易重点在于：进入四季度后，外盘美豆盘面将以中美谈判为主线，关注在缺乏中国采购 订单背景下的实际出口情况，若无更多协议达成，外盘将继续维持底部窄幅震荡；若有效达成部分采购协 议，则将迎来成本线以上的反弹幅度。内盘豆系上方空间受制于现实端的高库存压力，下方存在买船成本支 撑，故上下区间在四季度较难打破；前期国内大豆供应缺口交易逻辑在阿根廷短暂开放出口后边际削弱，同 时巴西大豆种植顺利背景下，将在四季度给予整体国内豆系更多压力 ...

农产品早报 2025-09-30 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 1、据马来西亚独立检验机构，马来西亚 9 月 1-10 日棕榈油出口下降 1.2%-8.43%，前 15 日环增 2.6%, 前 20 日环增 8.7%，前 25 日环增 11.3%-12.9%。SPPOMA 数据显示，2025 年 9 月 1-10 日马来西亚棕榈 油产量环比上月同期减少 3.17%，前 15 日产量环比减少 8.05%，前 20 日减少 7.89%，前 25 日减少 4.14%。 2、据外媒报道，预计未来几个月马来西亚棕榈油库存将下降，到年底库存将达到 170 万公吨左右，原 因是季节性产量放缓，而出口量增加以满足节日需求。马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB） ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货饲料季报 国内远期进口大豆供应缺口收窄 豆菜粕中长期或震荡偏弱 20250928 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：孙伟涛 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 基本面观点 ◆ 在豆粕现货供应充足且远期供应缺口收窄的情况下，预计豆菜粕中长期或震荡偏弱为主。 ◆ 美豆方面，美豆进入集中收割期，收割进度正常。 ◆ 巴西大豆已开始播种，未来两周主产区大部分地区都有良好降雨，天气适合播种工作的进行。阿根廷政府本 周取消了大豆和豆粕等农产品的出口税，但之后又宣布，政府设定的70亿美元配额已完成登记，因此恢复实 施暂停的谷物等农产品出口预扣税。 ◆ 国内方面，由于阿根廷短期地取消出口税，中国趁低价已购买了接近200万吨11-12月船期大豆，而且不排除 提前注册免税的额度后期继续购买阿根廷大豆，导致国内四季度及明年一季度进口大豆供应缺口收窄，长期 利空豆粕。另外，中美贸易关系仍是市场关注的焦点，后续需密切关注中美贸易谈判情况。 策略观点与展望 ◆ 单边：建议豆粕2601压力位 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10142 | 221 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2444 | 49 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 484 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) 347712 | 0 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) 41507 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 101 378057 | 25 -20054 | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 39516 | 21725 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -51747 | 21457 | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 8057 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 9245 | 0 | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 617.6 | 0.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5281 | 1 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:菜油:江苏(日,元/吨) 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is the short - term negative sentiment from Argentina's export tax exemption policy. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a potential export volume of up to 10 million tons to China. However, the purchase gap in China in the fourth quarter is less than 10 million tons. The policy's duration until next year is still uncertain. In terms of valuation, the prices of Argentine soybean meal and soybeans have only slightly decreased, providing some cost support for the domestic soybean meal futures. In the long - term, the soybean supply affected by Sino - US trade relations should be monitored [1]. - Rapeseed meal futures generally follow the trend of soybean meal in the short - term. After the Sino - Canadian talks, China has extended the anti - dumping investigation, making rapeseed products stronger than soybeans before November. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may increase the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal by the end of the year [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing seasonally. Rapeseed meal is weaker but relatively stronger than soybean meal. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the subsequent purchasing sentiment is expected to be limited. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a supply - dominated market [3]. - In the long - term, the import profit of soybeans is weakening, indicating a relief of supply pressure. Without purchasing US soybeans, there will be a supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Due to Sino - Canadian tariffs, there will also be a supply gap for rapeseed meal in the long - term, but the demand may decline simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory will decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term focus is on Argentina's export tax exemption policy. The old - crop sales progress is 60% - 70%, with a potential export of up to 10 million tons to China. The policy's impact on the market depends on its duration and China's purchase demand. In the long - term, Sino - US trade relations will affect soybean supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It follows soybean meal in the short - term. Before November, it is stronger than soybeans due to Sino - Canadian relations. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may change the inventory situation [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to be range - bound. The M2601 contract is predicted to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through these ranges [18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or liquidate previous long positions. Consider a covered call strategy by selling a 3300 - strike call option as a covered opening position, and hold previous covered opening positions [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.8% and a historical percentile of 3.8% over three years [22]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, feed mills, and oil mills based on their inventory and procurement situations [25]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have declined, while the price of CBOT yellow soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [26]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have shown different changes, with the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthening and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowing [27]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans have decreased, and the pressing profits of Brazilian soybeans are positive but declining. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are relatively high [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: According to the USDA crop report, as of September 21, the US soybean harvest progress was 9%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The dry weather in the US Midwest may accelerate the harvest. The USDA export inspection report showed that the cumulative soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season increased by 25.9% year - on - year, reaching 3.43% of the annual export target. China has purchased up to nine ships of Australian rapeseed, equivalent to about 8% of last year's total imports [28][29][30]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina has cancelled export taxes on soybeans, grains, and related products from now until October 31 to stimulate exports, which may increase supply and put pressure on international prices. As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.9%, and the upcoming rainfall may accelerate planting. The US EPA's new policy on small refinery exemptions has not clarified the market, leading to a significant decline in Chicago soybean oil futures [31][32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and near - term spot purchases are mainly on a need - to - use basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazilian Secex weekly report and USDA crop growth report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [41]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures price first declined, then rebounded, and finally broke through the support level. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal but was relatively stronger. Some short - position holders in key profitable seats of soybean and rapeseed meal futures reduced their positions slightly, while foreign - funded seats increased short positions. The crowded long - position seats suggest limited downward space [37]. - **International Market**: The domestic and international markets showed different trends. Before the Sino - US trade negotiation, the international market strengthened, and the domestic market weakened. After the negotiation, the situation reversed. Subsequently, the international soybean market declined due to Argentina's export policy. The net long - position of CBOT soybean managed funds decreased and fluctuated around zero, indicating unclear short - term capital direction [60][64]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in US soybean production areas is strong due to biodiesel policies, and the monthly pressing volume remains at a high level. The pressing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) are average, and exports may reduce domestic pressing volume. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed is neutral [66]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans in China is positive but declining. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans as they are more profitable than US soybeans with a 23% tariff. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and the domestic soybean pressing volume may decline seasonally. Although importing rapeseed can yield pressing profits, the purchase of rapeseed will still be cautious due to import margin requirements [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - For this month's new - crop balance sheet, the planted area is expected to increase marginally after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to decrease marginally after reaching a record high. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The domestic pressing demand will continue to grow due to biodiesel policies, while the export demand will remain weak due to Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may exceed normal levels. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight [81]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - China's soybean imports will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. The production of soybean meal will also decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be 2 - 3 ships of imported soybean meal if there is an import profit. Argentina will mainly export soybeans to China [83]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The inventory of soybeans carried over from the third quarter and the arrival of new imports in the fourth quarter will maintain a high level of domestic soybean pressing volume, but it will decline in the fourth quarter. After the previous high - level stocking, the consumption of soybean meal is unlikely to increase significantly [86]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The inventory of soybeans in China is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease. The inventory of soybean meal will also decline rapidly due to the reduction of raw material inventory and pressing volume [88].