Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1] - A report from the UK economic forecasting agency EY has downgraded the economic growth expectations for the UK in 2025 and 2026, predicting growth rates of 0.8% and 0.9% respectively, lower than previous forecasts [2] Market Dynamics - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.28% at 40,227.59 points and the S&P 500 up 0.06% at 5,528.75 points, while the Nasdaq fell 0.1% to 17,366.13 points [4] - International gold futures rose by 1.71% to $3,354.80 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 0.20% to $33.40 per ounce [4] - US oil prices weakened, with the main contract for West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 1.79% to $61.89 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.87% to $64.57 per barrel [4] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.7 basis points to 3.6907% and the 10-year yield down 3.09 basis points to 4.2063% [4] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.65% to 98.94, while non-US currencies generally appreciated against the dollar [4]

Core Points - The global recession risk is rising, with most economists believing that U.S. tariff policies have harmed business confidence [1][2] - Global economic growth forecast has been downgraded from 3.0% to 2.7%, with the IMF's slightly higher prediction at 2.8% [1] - 92% of economists view tariffs as having a "negative" impact on business sentiment, while only 8% consider the impact "neutral" [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to significant market volatility, causing stock markets to lose trillions of dollars and shaking investor confidence in U.S. assets [1] - Due to uncertainty and high tariffs, global companies are lowering revenue expectations, indicating that trade tensions are affecting both short-term market performance and long-term strategic planning [1] - In the 2025 global growth forecast, the median growth predictions for 28 out of 48 economies have been downgraded, with China and Russia expected to grow at 4.5% and 1.7% respectively, outperforming the U.S. [1] Future Projections - The growth expectations for 2026 show a similar downward trend, with 60% of economists rating the global recession risk as "high" or "very high" [2] - Central banks' efforts to curb inflation through rapid interest rate hikes are being hindered by tariff policies, which are seen as inflationary and potentially detrimental to real income and demand [2] - Over 65% of major central banks expect to miss their inflation targets this year, indicating significant challenges for monetary policymakers in the current complex economic environment [2]