Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing an unprecedented price revaluation, with gold surpassing $5000 per ounce, reflecting a shift towards hard assets amid rising global risk aversion [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold prices have shown a remarkable increase, with a 64% annual rise in 2025, the best performance since 1979, and a further increase of over 17% in 2026 [1][4]. - On January 26, gold reached a peak of $5092.71 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. - The silver market also performed well, achieving a historical high of $109.44, following a 147% increase in the previous year [1][4]. Group 2: Market Influences - Recent extreme trade policy measures from developed economies, including potential tariffs on Canada and France, have contributed to a crisis of confidence in the current trade order [2][4]. - The uncertain political environment and sovereignty disputes have weakened the dollar's safe-haven status, leading to a significant capital flow into non-dollar-denominated precious metals [2][4]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has heightened market vigilance, with the yen's rebound causing a decline in the dollar index, further reducing gold's cost for non-dollar holders [2][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the potential for profit-taking at historical price levels, any price pullback is expected to present buying opportunities [5]. - Current institutional forecasts suggest that gold prices may test the $5500 peak within the year [5]. - The strategic value of gold is seen as surpassing mere speculation, with a focus on technical support levels around $5088 for capturing deeper trend benefits [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices have shown exceptional performance in 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 50% year-to-date, reaching new highs recently. This strong upward trend is driven by a combination of short-term risk aversion, medium-term monetary policy expectations, and deeper structural changes in the global monetary system [1] - The immediate factor driving gold prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with markets anticipating a continuation of these cuts in Q4 2025. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as US-China trade disputes and the US government shutdown crisis, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold [1] - A significant medium-term support for gold prices comes from the ongoing large-scale gold purchases by global central banks. As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves have increased for 11 consecutive months, and a survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 43% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months [1] - The fundamental long-term driver of the current surge in gold prices is rooted in deep concerns about the credibility of the US dollar and structural changes occurring in the global monetary system. The share of the dollar as the primary reserve currency has fallen to around 55%, the lowest in nearly 15 years, reflecting a decline in global investors' trust in the dollar-centric monetary system [1] Group 2 - The overall trend for gold prices remains bullish, but caution is advised when operating at historical highs [2] - The primary strategy suggested is to focus on buying after price corrections, with key support levels identified around $4210-$4215. A stronger support level is noted at $4180-$4170, where a stabilization signal would present an ideal buying opportunity [3] - If gold prices can effectively break and hold above the $4245-$4250 range, there is potential for further upward movement towards $4260-$4265 and even the $4300 mark [3] - Risk management is crucial, with stop-loss recommendations set below $4200 for positions entered around $4210-$4215. If prices rise to the $4250-$4260 range and face resistance, a light short position may be considered, with a stop-loss above $4265 and a target around $4220-$4210 [3]