Group 1 - Gold prices have shown exceptional performance in 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 50% year-to-date, reaching new highs recently. This strong upward trend is driven by a combination of short-term risk aversion, medium-term monetary policy expectations, and deeper structural changes in the global monetary system [1] - The immediate factor driving gold prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with markets anticipating a continuation of these cuts in Q4 2025. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as US-China trade disputes and the US government shutdown crisis, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold [1] - A significant medium-term support for gold prices comes from the ongoing large-scale gold purchases by global central banks. As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves have increased for 11 consecutive months, and a survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 43% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months [1] - The fundamental long-term driver of the current surge in gold prices is rooted in deep concerns about the credibility of the US dollar and structural changes occurring in the global monetary system. The share of the dollar as the primary reserve currency has fallen to around 55%, the lowest in nearly 15 years, reflecting a decline in global investors' trust in the dollar-centric monetary system [1] Group 2 - The overall trend for gold prices remains bullish, but caution is advised when operating at historical highs [2] - The primary strategy suggested is to focus on buying after price corrections, with key support levels identified around $4210-$4215. A stronger support level is noted at $4180-$4170, where a stabilization signal would present an ideal buying opportunity [3] - If gold prices can effectively break and hold above the $4245-$4250 range, there is potential for further upward movement towards $4260-$4265 and even the $4300 mark [3] - Risk management is crucial, with stop-loss recommendations set below $4200 for positions entered around $4210-$4215. If prices rise to the $4250-$4260 range and face resistance, a light short position may be considered, with a stop-loss above $4265 and a target around $4220-$4210 [3]