2026年2月25日，美元指数震荡上行，截至亚市尾盘报97.95，微涨0.12%，逼近四周高位，日内交投于 97.82至97.98区间。其走势主要受美联储降息谨慎立场、美国关税政策变动及全球避险情绪主导，短期 偏强但长期贬值压力未消。 技术面显示，美元指数短期偏强。2月中旬以来从95.56反弹至97.95，4小时图多头动能温和，短期支撑 97.80，站稳有望测试98.05；阻力集中98.00—98.05。但长期仍处下跌趋势，前期双重顶形成后，长期目 标80—85一带，短期反弹难改颓势。 后市来看，美元短期仍偏强整理，取决于美联储政策、关税落地及通胀数据。机构认为，短期政策与避 险将支撑美元，但长期财政赤字、降息周期、贸易逆差及去美元化仍构成压制。投资者需关注通胀、官 员讲话及关税动态，警惕回调风险。 美国关税政策博弈间接利好美元。近期最高法院裁定特朗普政府部分关税越权，或致关税降5个百分点 及1750亿美元退税，但特朗普表态将加征15%临时关税维持原有水平。政策不确定性推升避险需求，利 好美元这一传统避险资产。 此外，美联储官员立场转变与美股反弹助力美元。偏鸽派理事斯蒂芬.米兰上调降息预期，反映央行对 经济韧 ...

黄金回调附近5170做多，止损20个点，目标5230附近。 文/江问樵专业国际市场点评，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入 的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，若您对这种即将选择方向的行情节奏把 握需要更清晰的预判，欢迎关注交流探讨，让我们共同捕捉下一轮行情的启动点。 当日消息面整体利多黄金，进一步印证了该做多策略的可行性。美伊局势紧张、特朗普关税政策不确定性加剧全球避险 情绪，美元指数跌破96关口创近三年新低，直接提升以美元计价的黄金资产吸引力。全球央行购金潮延续、美联储下半 年降息预期强烈，筑牢金价长期支撑，叠加节后实物需求爆发，为金价反弹提供强劲动能。 黄金技术面呈现高位回调修正态势，为5170附近做多提供了合理入场时机。当日伦敦金现早盘冲高至5237.71美元/盎司 后急跌超100点，短线获利盘出逃引发回调，但日线级别多头格局未被破坏，RSI指标超买修正后逐步回归合理区间。 5170附近处于关键强支撑区间，贴合当日5144.62美元/盎司的低点反弹区域，同时契合市场对5170-5180支撑位的普遍判 断，回调至此企稳后做多具 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower and continued to decline, with the gold sector experiencing significant losses, leading to multiple stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed weakness, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining across the board [1] Gold Sector Performance - The gold sector collectively retreated, closely linked to the short-term volatility of international gold prices [2] - On January 29, gold prices initially surged past $5,500 per ounce, setting a historical high, but later experienced a sharp drop, retracting over $100 from the peak [2][5] - By 9:50 AM Beijing time, spot gold had fallen to around $5,340 per ounce, reflecting a significant decline from the previous day's high [2] Historical Context and Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Recent strong performance in the gold market is attributed to multiple shocks to the U.S. dollar credit system since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [5] - Gold prices have reached historical highs three times due to these shocks, with significant increases noted in 2022 and 2023 [5] - As of 2025, global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, amounting to $555 billion, indicating a growing recognition of gold's safe-haven attributes [5] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The recent market volatility is closely tied to the upcoming announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump, which has led to profit-taking among investors [6] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the future of gold prices, with short-term adjustments expected as the market awaits clarity on the new Fed Chair's policies [6] - Long-term support for gold assets remains strong due to potential risks in the dollar credit system, geopolitical uncertainties, and sustained global demand for safe-haven assets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2026, breaking key support levels and reaching new lows, driven by the safe-haven appeal of the Swiss franc and diverging monetary policies between the US and Switzerland [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of January 27, 2026, the USD/CHF traded at 0.7774, with a daily decline of 0.22%, and a trading range of 0.7760-0.7782. On January 26, it fell significantly to a low of 0.7740, marking a single-day drop of 0.4358% [1]. - The Swiss franc has maintained a stable performance against the euro, fluctuating around the 0.93-0.94 range, indicating a strong independent trend compared to other major currencies [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a 0% policy interest rate, with a high threshold for reintroducing negative rates, expected to remain until at least the second half of 2027. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2026, with the first cut likely in June [2]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Switzerland has diminished the attractiveness of USD yields, prompting a shift of funds towards the Swiss franc [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Interventions - The SNB's foreign exchange interventions are crucial in managing the exchange rate, particularly to mitigate the impact of a strong franc on export-oriented sectors like watchmaking and pharmaceuticals [2]. - Market consensus suggests that the SNB may reduce intervention efforts if the USD/CHF falls below 0.79, while a rebound above 0.80 could trigger increased intervention [2]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland's economic indicators show weak inflation, with January CPI rising only 0.1% year-on-year and December PPI declining 1.8%. The manufacturing PMI is below the growth threshold, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.0% in 2026 [2]. - The reduction of US tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15% has improved the trade balance, partially offsetting pressures from a sluggish economic recovery [2]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The bearish trend for USD/CHF is solid, with daily candles consistently closing lower. Key support is at 0.7740, and a break below this level could lead to a decline towards the psychological level of 0.7700 [3]. - The short-term outlook for USD/CHF is likely to remain bearish, influenced by global risk sentiment, SNB intervention actions, and the pace of Fed rate cuts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing an unprecedented price revaluation, with gold surpassing $5000 per ounce, reflecting a shift towards hard assets amid rising global risk aversion [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold prices have shown a remarkable increase, with a 64% annual rise in 2025, the best performance since 1979, and a further increase of over 17% in 2026 [1][4]. - On January 26, gold reached a peak of $5092.71 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. - The silver market also performed well, achieving a historical high of $109.44, following a 147% increase in the previous year [1][4]. Group 2: Market Influences - Recent extreme trade policy measures from developed economies, including potential tariffs on Canada and France, have contributed to a crisis of confidence in the current trade order [2][4]. - The uncertain political environment and sovereignty disputes have weakened the dollar's safe-haven status, leading to a significant capital flow into non-dollar-denominated precious metals [2][4]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has heightened market vigilance, with the yen's rebound causing a decline in the dollar index, further reducing gold's cost for non-dollar holders [2][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the potential for profit-taking at historical price levels, any price pullback is expected to present buying opportunities [5]. - Current institutional forecasts suggest that gold prices may test the $5500 peak within the year [5]. - The strategic value of gold is seen as surpassing mere speculation, with a focus on technical support levels around $5088 for capturing deeper trend benefits [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the surge in gold prices, surpassing $5000 per ounce, is driven by a combination of factors including distrust in the US dollar, central banks' strategic gold purchases, and global risk aversion [1][2][4][12] - Gold entered a bull market starting from the end of 2021, with a significant price increase of 64% in 2025, reaching $4349.9 per ounce by the end of that year [1][2] - The price of gold has risen over 15% in just three weeks of 2026, indicating a strong upward momentum [1] Group 2 - The first major reason for the gold price surge is the growing distrust in the US dollar, exacerbated by the increasing US national debt, which exceeded $38 trillion by the end of 2025 [2][3] - The second reason is the global central banks' shift from being net sellers to net buyers of gold, with a record net purchase of 1089.38 tons in 2024, the highest since 1950 [3][4] - The third reason is the global geopolitical instability, which has heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a record high of 4025 tons in gold ETF holdings by the end of 2025 [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is described as a "seesaw," where typically one rises while the other falls, influenced by factors such as pricing effects, opportunity costs, and risk aversion [5][6] - Historical patterns show that gold and the dollar have had inverse relationships during various economic crises, indicating a complex interplay between the two assets [6][7] - Current dynamics suggest that gold's pricing mechanisms are evolving, reflecting broader concerns about the future of the monetary system rather than solely traditional interest rate logic [7][8] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential shift in the global monetary system, suggesting that the dominance of the US dollar may be weakening, with signs of de-dollarization emerging post-2022 [8][9] - Central banks are diversifying their reserves, with gold now surpassing US Treasury holdings in value, indicating a move away from reliance on the dollar [9][10] - While the dollar's dominance is still significant, the article posits that the current changes may represent the beginning of a long process of "hegemonic weakening" and "system diversification" rather than an immediate overhaul [10][11] Group 5 - The article concludes that the recent surge in gold prices reflects deeper concerns about debt inflation, geopolitical risks, and the foundational trust in the US dollar [12][13] - The ongoing trends suggest that gold's role may evolve into a stabilizing asset in a potentially diversified monetary landscape, serving as a hedge against dollar credit risks [11][12] - Understanding gold's rising significance may provide insights into the broader search for certainty in an increasingly uncertain world [12]

Group 1 - The industrial non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant gains, with the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index (H11059) rising by 5.14% as of January 26, 2026, and individual stocks such as Vanadium Titanium and Xinyi Silver Tin hitting the daily limit up [1] - The latest scale of the Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF Wan Jia (560860) reached 14.378 billion yuan, with a total of 7.582 billion shares, both hitting record highs since inception, and a net inflow of 60.1082 million yuan was recorded [1] - Silver prices have surged past 100 USD/ounce, driven by heightened global risk aversion due to tariff increases by Trump, accelerated gold reserve purchases by central banks, and reduced US Treasury holdings by emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Long-term underinvestment in copper mine capital expenditures, combined with frequent supply disruptions, is shifting the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to substantial shortage [2] - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 and the "anti-involution" in the smelting sector are expected to push copper prices beyond previous highs, indicating a clear upward trend in the overall pricing center for industrial metals [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index (H11059) as of December 31, 2025, include major players such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 56.18% of the index [2]

Core Insights - Domestic gold price reached 1121.16 CNY per gram, up by 1.66% [1] - International gold price reported at 5032.9 USD per ounce, up by 1.07% [2] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold price first broke the 5000 USD per ounce mark, setting a historical high on January 26. Multiple institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 2026 year-end target from 4900 USD to 5400 USD, and Jefferies providing an aggressive target of 6600 USD. This breakthrough is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar's credibility, a resonance of demand from global central banks and the private sector, and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Ongoing disputes between the US and Europe over Greenland remain unresolved, with Trump threatening significant retaliation against Europe for selling US assets. Additionally, tensions in the Middle East have intensified, with the US increasing military presence in the Persian Gulf, and both Israel and Iran on high alert. Turkey has warned external forces against interfering in Iranian affairs, leading to a surge in global risk aversion and capital flowing into gold as a safe haven [4] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with the People's Bank of China having increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The average monthly gold purchase by global central banks is expected to reach 60 tons by 2026, reinforcing the price support for gold. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2026, leading to a continued decline in the US dollar index and reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, further boosting investment demand for the metal [5]

Group 1 - The upcoming week will see a total reverse repurchase maturity scale of 11,810 billion yuan, with specific maturities on each day from Monday to Friday [1] - On January 26, a press conference will be held by the State Council Information Office regarding the 2025 business work and operational situation [2] - On January 27, China will release the year-on-year profit data for large-scale industrial enterprises for December 2025 [3] Group 2 - A press conference on January 28 will introduce the high-quality development of state-owned enterprises [4] - On January 30, preliminary GDP data for Hong Kong for the fourth quarter will be published [5] - On January 31, the official manufacturing PMI data for January will be released, with December's PMI recorded at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [6] Group 3 - A total of 30 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, with a total market value exceeding 40 billion yuan, with January 27 being the peak unlocking date [6] - The companies with the highest unlocking market values include Haibo Shichuang (23.154 billion yuan), Fostar (5.367 billion yuan), and Yifang Biotechnology-U (4.251 billion yuan) [6] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Beixin Life on January 26 and Linping Development and Electronic Science and Technology Blue Sky on January 30 [6] Group 4 - The upcoming week will feature a "super earnings week" for U.S. stocks, with major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, and others reporting earnings [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on January 30, with a low likelihood of rate cuts in the first quarter [8] - The U.S. government faces a risk of shutdown by January 31, with a 75% probability of closure due to recent political tensions [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold may have reached a new starting point for an upward trend, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of gold, paying attention to the new heights brought by the strengthening of its monetary attribute [1] - The purchasing power of gold is returning. Strategies should focus on going long on gold unilaterally and using the buy - call strategy. Volatility may rise. For silver, a profit - taking strategy for long positions is recommended, and going long on the gold - silver ratio is of good value. Attention should also be paid to the alternative performance of platinum's investment attribute [2] Summary by Related Content Geopolitical and Market Factors Affecting Gold - Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, which will increase to 25% in a few months [1] - The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, aiming to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons [1] - The Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension will withdraw from US Treasury bond investments, and Japanese government bonds have been sold off due to lack of funds for radical tax cuts [1] Investment Strategies - For gold, consider strategies such as going long unilaterally, buying calls, and using the far - month bull call spread structure for long - term long positions. For those planning to increase gold allocation, consider the circuit - breaker enhanced accumulator option [1][2][4] - For silver, recommend a profit - taking strategy for long positions and going long on the gold - silver ratio [2] - Pay attention to the alternative performance of platinum's investment attribute [2] Option Strategies - For on - exchange gold options, due to high implied volatility, long - term long positions can use the far - month bull call spread structure and adjust the strike price through rolling profit - taking to reduce option costs [3] - For off - exchange options, investors planning to increase gold allocation are advised to arrange circuit - breaker enhanced accumulator options with a moderate cycle and range to reduce long - position costs in a volatile upward market [4]