Core Insights - The current surge in spot gold prices reaching the $4000 mark is causing mixed sentiments among investors regarding entry points and potential missed opportunities [1] - Historical context shows that previous spikes in gold prices, such as the rise to $1900, led to panic selling after a subsequent correction, highlighting the importance of strategic investment rather than impulsive decisions [3] - Central banks globally, including China's, have been accumulating gold, reflecting concerns over the credibility of the US dollar and geopolitical instability, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe haven [3] Investment Strategy - The current price level of $4000 is considered high, and short-term volatility is expected; therefore, investors are advised against chasing prices and risking emotional trading [3] - A recommended strategy is to wait for a price correction to the $3800-$3900 range before gradually building positions, with an asset allocation of 5%-10% in gold [3] - The fundamental reasons supporting gold's price increase remain intact, indicating a positive long-term trend, but patience is emphasized as a key component of successful long-term investing [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures prices have rebounded after hitting a low, with COMEX gold futures maintaining around 3990 points, influenced by easing US-China trade negotiations and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, which have suppressed short-term safe-haven demand while supporting long-term value due to expectations of Federal Reserve easing [1] Market Performance - Gold ETF Huaxia (518850) declined by 3.5%, while gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 3.62% [1] - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate between 900-945 yuan per gram, and silver between 10,700-11,800 yuan per kilogram [1] Price Predictions - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) predicts gold prices will rise to $4,980 per ounce, silver to $59 per ounce, platinum to $1,816, and palladium to $1,709 within the next 12 months [1] Market Drivers - Current gold prices are driven by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty regarding US tariffs, and a "fear of missing out" sentiment [1] - Anlin Futures views the recent price correction as a healthy "technical correction" rather than a trend reversal, with a solid long-term macro backdrop supporting gold price increases [1] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, with expectations of further cuts this week, and a continuous trend of global central banks purchasing gold provides a strong demand foundation for the market [1] - The global uncertainty environment, including concerns over US dollar credit and debt issues, has not fundamentally changed [1]

金价整体趋势依然偏向多头，但在历史高位操作需要更加谨慎。 主要思路：建议以回调后做多为主。 金价在2025年表现出色，今年以来累计涨幅已超过50%，近期更是连创新高。这轮强劲的上涨并非由单 一因素驱动，而是短期避险情绪、中期货币政策预期以及更深层次的全球货币体系结构性变化共同作用 的结果。 短期直接因素：美联储的降息预期是推动金价最直接的动力之一。市场普遍预计美联储在2025年四季度 将继续降息。同时，近期持续的地缘政治紧张局势（如中美贸易摩擦）、美国政府"停摆"危机以及国际 贸易紧张局面的升级共同推升了市场的避险情绪，促使资金涌入黄金。 中期核心支撑：全球央行持续的、大规模的购金行为，为金价提供了坚实且结构性的底部支撑。截至 2025年9月末，中国官方黄金储备已连续11个月增持。世界黄金协会的调查显示，43%的央行计划在未 来12个月继续增持黄金。这种央行"购金潮"会将黄金进一步推向全球货币体系的核心位置。 长期根本动力：当前金价飙升的根本支撑，源于市场对美元信用的深层担忧及全球货币体系正在发生的 结构性演变。美元作为全球主要储备货币的份额已降至55%左右，为近15年最低。黄金价格的突破实质 上反映了全球投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. Shanghai Silver futures are in a sideways trend, also at the end of the trend. For both gold and silver, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices of gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as trade policies, the US dollar index, and industrial demand [7][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: US tariff policies have raised concerns about global economic recession and supply chain disruptions, increasing gold's safe - haven demand. Although the rising US dollar index suppresses gold prices, the strong demand for gold shows concerns about the US dollar's credit. The overall inflow of funds into gold ETFs is still strong, and central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, have continuously increased their gold holdings. The reduced expectation of a July interest rate cut and the increased expectation of a September cut also support gold prices [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct grid trading in the range of 760 - 782 [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21]. Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is sideways, currently at the end of the trend [30]. - Trend judgment logic: The increase in trade concerns last week boosted silver's safe - haven demand. The repair logic of the gold - silver ratio, the weakening US dollar index, and geopolitical tensions support silver from a financial perspective. The continuous growth of silver demand in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries strengthens its fundamentals. However, the industrial nature of silver may limit its price increase if the risk of global economic recession intensifies [30]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8800 - 8900 [33]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support in the range of 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report shows data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver's internal - external price difference [39][41][43].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year and 30-year bonds, reflects market concerns over economic recession, credit spreads, and liquidity tightening, rather than a broad-based sell-off of U.S. Treasuries [6][8] Group 1: Market Reactions - From April 4 to April 11, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.858% to a peak of 4.588%, marking one of the largest weekly increases in years [2][6] - The 30-year Treasury yield also experienced significant volatility, climbing from 4.31% to over 5%, reaching a high of 5.018% on April 9 [4][6] - The U.S. Treasury futures prices fell nearly 3% during the same period, indicating a strong market reaction to rising yields [6] Group 2: Economic and Policy Implications - The recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries is attributed to heightened recession fears, widening credit spreads, and tightening liquidity, rather than a systemic issue with dollar liquidity [6][8] - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy has led to global asset volatility, causing investors to withdraw from riskier assets, which has negatively impacted market liquidity [6][8] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, including rising deficits and uncertainties surrounding tax policies, are contributing to a loss of confidence in U.S. sovereign credit and the traditional safe-haven status of Treasuries [7][8] Group 3: Shifts in Safe-Haven Preferences - The recent performance of gold and traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc indicates a structural shift in market preferences away from U.S. Treasuries [7] - The volatility in the Treasury market suggests that its status as a safe haven is being challenged amid rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties [7]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of "stagflation" in the US economy is increasing, with deep concerns about the creditworthiness of the US dollar emerging due to aggressive tariff policies [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The aggressive tariff policies under Trump's administration are disrupting the global situation, with the US economy and financial markets being the most affected [1] - The recent decline in US Treasury prices over five consecutive days has led to a cumulative increase of nearly 50 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield, reaching 4.48%, marking the largest weekly increase since 2002 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The US dollar index has experienced a significant drop, with foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs shifting to a bearish outlook on the dollar's performance [1] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - In contrast, China's economic fundamentals, policy support, and valuation advantages are expected to continue driving the "revaluation of Chinese assets," reinforcing the narrative of "the East rising and the West declining" [1]