Core Viewpoint - The White House is struggling to fulfill its promise of comprehensive global trade reform before the July 9 deadline, with expected agreements likely to be limited framework documents rather than full trade agreements [2][6]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Negotiations - The U.S. government aims to reach agreements with over ten major trading partners before the deadline, but these are expected to be limited in scope [2]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that around 20 countries not reaching agreements by the deadline could continue negotiations but would face higher tariffs [3]. - Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all countries, emphasizing unilateral control over tariff rates [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The mixed signals from the Trump administration are causing market tension, affecting global economic relations [2][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations is creating anxiety among domestic businesses, with previous tariff policies having caused market panic [7]. - A recent poll indicated that 57% of voters are dissatisfied with Trump's handling of trade policy, reflecting public sentiment against the current approach [8]. Group 3: Future Developments - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to release industry survey results that may trigger new tariffs [8]. - Legal challenges to the legitimacy of Trump's tariff powers are ongoing, with a recent court ruling deeming most tariffs illegal [8]. - Despite the chaotic negotiation landscape, some countries are still optimistic about reaching agreements, particularly with India and the EU [7].

特朗普及其顾问在7月9日前的表态让投资者人心惶惶，他们对哪些国家接近达成协议、哪些进展不顺的 暗示模糊不清。这一结果将影响特朗普贸易议程的未来——作为其2024年竞选核心议题之一，此事对全 球经济及美国与盟友、对手的关系都至关重要。即便相关度极高，政府是否会严守截止日期或延长谈判 时间仍未可知。 贝森特上周五表示，约20个未在周三国会前达成协议的国家可继续谈判，但若被认定"真诚协商"，关税 税率可维持10%，否则恢复至4月2日的较高水平。 智通财经APP获悉，距离唐纳德·特朗普总统重启国别关税仅剩10天，白宫似乎难以兑现其在三个月谈 判窗口期内达成全面全球贸易改革的承诺。特朗普高级顾问本周透露，预计将在7月9日截止日前与多达 12个美国主要贸易伙伴达成协议。但从特朗普任内仅有的另外两项协议(与中国和英国)来看，这些协议 可能并非解决核心问题的全面协定，而是仅涉及有限议题、将许多细节留待后续谈判的框架性文件。 杜克大学法学院国际贸易专家蒂姆·迈耶(Tim Meyer)指出："预计白宫将宣布若干被称为'贸易协议'的框 架，但这些协议不符合任何人对'贸易协议'的常规理解。"美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott B ...