全球资产定价逻辑重塑
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广发证券郭磊:有色金属战略地位跃升,成为“新阶段的原油”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 02:53
Core Viewpoint - The current performance of global major asset classes is driven by multiple "mainstream narratives," including the long-term weakening of the dollar credit cycle, the formation of a new monetary system with gold as a pricing anchor, the restructuring of global industrial and supply chains, AI computing power becoming a new phase of infrastructure, and non-ferrous metals emerging as the "new oil" of this phase [1] Group 1: Global Asset Dynamics - The narratives are interconnected and form a "narrative constellation" that is systematically reshaping global asset pricing logic, with no indication that this narrative phase is nearing its end [1] - Non-ferrous metals have significantly enhanced their strategic position in the context of global industrial restructuring and energy transition, akin to the role of oil in previous decades [1] Group 2: Chinese Economic Consumption - The consumption structure of the Chinese economy is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a focus on goods consumption to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services consumption [1] - There is strong demand for service consumption in areas such as cultural tourism, elderly care, and childcare, with policy incentives for service consumption expected to become an important macroeconomic clue for 2026, driving optimization of domestic demand structure [1]
美联储降息落地,恒生科技ETF易方达(513010)近一月“揽金”超35亿元,规模突破200亿元
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-18 06:53
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - Analysts suggest that the global shift towards a rate-cutting cycle may reshape asset pricing logic, potentially increasing global market risk appetite and directing funds towards non-US markets and high-yield assets, creating new investment opportunities [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, composed of the 30 largest tech-related companies listed in Hong Kong, currently has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio at the 35th percentile since its launch in 2020, indicating a historical low valuation [1] Group 2 - The recent rate cut may provide a repair window for undervalued assets in the tech sector, prompting a shift of funds from overvalued areas to more attractive investments [1] - The E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF (513010) has seen a net inflow of over 3.5 billion yuan in the past month, with its product scale surpassing 20 billion yuan, reaching a new high since its inception, facilitating investor access to leading tech stocks in Hong Kong [1]