点击小程序查看报告原文 今年1-7月，我国出口同比增速要远高于市场预期。我们认为，在全球产业链重构的背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家工业化加速，而中国完整 的供应链叠加竞争力提升，使得我国中间品出口提速，对我国出口增速形成重要支撑。今年1-7月，我国中间品出口强于资本品、消费品，中 间品的出口增长主要是对新兴市场/发展中国家的中间品出口提升。在中间品出口的推动下，我国对非美地区的出口增速较高。行业上，机 电、贱金属、运输设备、精密仪器的中间品出口增速较高，或反映了我国制造业的规模经济优势，以及科技创新能力的提升。 2025年1-7月，我国出口以美元计价累计同比增长6.1%。而在全球关税扰动之下，市场对2025年的出口增速预期仅为0.88%（图表1）。为什么 我国出口增速要远高于市场预期？我们此前在 《解码出口新常态》 中提出，在全球产业链重构的背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家工业化加 速，带动了我国中间品的出口，是我国出口增速较高的重要支撑，而市场对此有所低估。 图表1：今年1-7月的出口同比增速超出市场预期 资料来源：iFinD，海关总署，中金公司研究部 2025年1-7月，我国中间品出口强于资本品、消费品，是出口 ...

如果政策层面能够多措并举积极应对，结合中国产业体系完备和超大规模市场的优势，吸引外商投资仍 有较大空间。 7月30日，中共中央政治局会议强调"扩大高水平对外开放，稳住外贸外资基本盘"，体现决策层对外资 领域的关注。此前，李强总理在第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式上也表示，当前国际经贸格局正在发生 深刻变化，其中跨境投资波动下行，产供链碎片化风险上升。 近年来，中国外商直接投资（FDI）延续下滑态势，除了一些短期因素的扰动外，更多体现出全球产业 链供应链重构所带来的挑战。尽管大国博弈格局下稳外资任务艰巨，但如果政策层面能够多措并举积极 应对，结合中国产业体系完备和超大规模市场的优势，吸引外商投资仍有较大空间。 中国外商直接投资持续下降 中国外商直接投资有两个统计口径，即外管局国际收支口径和商务部口径。2022年，商务部和国际收支 口径的FDI数据一升一降，显著分化，引发了对外商投资趋势判断的分歧。 2023年以来，尽管两个口径的FDI在金额上仍有差距，但趋势上均大幅下降，2024年也都创多年新低， 指向我国外商直接投资面临较大压力，验证了之前笔者的判断。 从国际收支口径看，2024年，中国外商直接投资为186亿美元 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 Company Report: Haitian International (01882 HK) 中文版 Muyang Zhao 赵沐阳 (852) 25095375 公司报告： Chinese version muyang.zhao@gtjas.com.hk 20 August 2025 供应链迁移推动海外注塑机需求 [Table_Summary] 我们上调至"买入"，并上调目标价至 26.00 港元。海天国际（"公司"）公 布了强劲的中期业绩，海外销售增长高于预期，国内销售保持稳定。鉴于关税 环境不确定，供应链从中国大陆向东南亚转移，推动了海外销售增长，我们预 计这种情况将在今年剩余时间内持续。若这种趋势延续，强劲的海外销售可能 会抵消疲弱的国内销售。因此，我们分别上调 2025-2027 年收入预测至人民币 179.49 亿元（+1.2%）/人民币 177.11 亿元（+0.1%）/人民币 203.09 亿元 （+1.0%）。我们预计公司 2025/ 2026/ 2027 年的每股盈利分别为人民币 2.127 元（+2.6%）、人民币 2.032 元（+1.4%）和人民币 2.3 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 受益于全球产业链重构和部分下游行业加速发展，25H1业绩稳健增长 海天国际发布2025年中期业绩公告，实现收入90.2亿人民币，同比增长12.5%；实现归母净利润17.1亿人民 币，同比增长12.6%；每股收益1.07元人民币。受益于全球产业链重构和以新能源车为代表的部分下游行业加 速发展，公司业绩实现稳健增长。2025H1年公司综合毛利率为32.8%，同比上升0.5个百分点；净利率19.0%， 同比基本持平。公司2025H1经营性现金净流入14.0亿人民币，同比增长16.3%。 下游景气度复苏，有望受益于设备更新大潮 2025H1公司注塑机整机实现销售收入86.4亿人民币，同比增长12.1%；部件及服务实现销售收入3.8亿人 ...

渣打网络布局深融新兴市场，铸造跨境业务独特优势。渣打在40 个"一带一路"市场设有经营网点，其 中超20 个市场的运营历史超过100 年，积累了丰富的牌照资源与扎实的客群基础。公司核心市场东盟地 区是全球产业转移的主要目的地，依托网络银行优势为企业出海提供多元金融服务，增厚非息收入的同 时沉淀低成本存款。轻资本模式有助于平滑降息对营收冲击，25H1 末香港商业地产敞口占比在总贷款 占比仅0.7%。截至2025/8/18，PB（MRQ）0.91 倍，回购+分红综合回报率8.35%，具备配置价值。 全球资产配置需求打开财富管理空间 全球跨境资产配置需求旺盛，财富管理业务迎来增长机遇。渣打深度布局中国香港、新加坡、阿联酋三 大高成长性财富中心，财富管理AUM 增长有望受益于区域红利。渣打采取代销模式，产品货架覆盖全 球优质资产，助力富裕客群挖掘投资机会。25H1 财富管理收入同比+23.1%，H1 共计13.5 万名新客户 开户。随跨境理财需求日益活跃，有望支撑财富管理持续扩容，指引24-29 年财富管理收入或实现 CAGR 双位数增长。 维持2025 年目标PB 1.00 倍 我们预计本次舆情波动对公司基本面经营 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 9.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit of 1.71 billion RMB, up 12.6% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in downstream demand and a wave of equipment upgrades, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [2] - The overseas market showed significant performance, with overseas revenue increasing by 34.7% to 3.82 billion RMB, driven by structural adjustments in the global supply chain [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 32.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 19.0%, which remained stable [1] - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 1.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.3% [1] Sales Performance - Injection molding machine sales generated 8.64 billion RMB in revenue, a 12.1% increase, while parts and services contributed 0.38 billion RMB, growing by 21.0% [2] - The demand for the company's Mars and Jupiter series injection molding machines surged due to growth in the overseas consumer goods market and domestic demand in the new energy vehicle and home appliance sectors [2] Market Expansion - Domestic revenue was stable at 5.20 billion RMB, with a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 3.82 billion RMB, marking a significant growth of 34.7% [3] - The company is advancing its "Five-Five" overseas strategy, enhancing global delivery capabilities through increased investment in local factories in regions like Southeast Asia, Japan, Serbia, and Chennai, India [3] Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.50 billion RMB, 3.90 billion RMB, and 4.27 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 13.5%, 11.6%, and 9.3% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.19 RMB, 2.45 RMB, and 2.67 RMB for the same years [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively expanding its production capacity to meet increasing demand in the global market [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 369 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.44% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 53.35 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 49.01% [2] Group 2: Production Capacity Expansion - As of June 30, 2025, the company has signed contracts corresponding to approximately 289 million yuan in revenue that are yet to be fulfilled [2] - The company is increasing production shifts and has utilized additional floors in its Shenzhen production base to enhance capacity [2] - A new production base in Malaysia is expected to commence operations in the fourth quarter of this year, with capacity gradually increasing over the next three years to meet overseas customer demands [2] Group 3: Market Position and Opportunities - The global restructuring of the supply chain has led to an estimated demand for around 10,000 new production lines [2] - The company holds a leading market share globally and is well-positioned to capitalize on the new equipment demand due to its strengths in product, technology, service, and delivery [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market has entered a new upward trend since April 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 15% to close at 3583.31 points on August 4, compared to 13.27 times TTM P/E ratio on April 7, now at 15.52 times [1][2] Sector Analysis - Current valuation levels indicate that sectors like consumer goods, midstream manufacturing, and midstream materials have TTM P/E ratios above historical medians, while essential consumption and resource sectors are below historical medians [2] - Analysts suggest that sectors like home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and coal are in relative "value traps," where low valuations are not sufficient for generating excess returns without improvements in macro liquidity and industry policies [2][3] Focus on Growth Sectors - The non-ferrous metals and electric power equipment sectors are highlighted for their better growth potential despite lower valuations, making them attractive investment options [2][4] - The non-ferrous metals industry shows low TTM P/E and P/B ratios, with high ROE levels, driven by global supply constraints and increasing demand from both traditional manufacturing and AI sectors [3][4] Policy and Economic Factors - The electric power equipment sector benefits from national policies like the "dual carbon" goals and the "West-East Power Transmission" strategy, with significant growth expected due to rising domestic and international demand for renewable energy infrastructure [4] - Analysts expect that the recovery of low-valued assets in sectors like food and beverage, coal, and oil will depend on strong economic recovery expectations and supply-side adjustments [2][3] Technology Sector Opportunities - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor equipment and materials, is becoming a favored investment theme, with high growth potential driven by AI and related technologies [4][5] - The semiconductor sector is undergoing a transformation, with significant revenue and profit growth anticipated by Q1 2025, supported by policy backing and favorable market conditions [5] Investment Sentiment - The market sentiment is shifting towards sectors with high growth potential, with analysts optimistic about the recovery of the semiconductor and AI-related sectors, especially as they have lagged behind in recent performance [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, initially threatened to raise tariffs on Eastern goods to triple-digit levels after the third round of economic talks, but this did not cause expected market turmoil as Eastern countries maintained strategic composure [1] - Shortly after, Bessent shifted his stance, indicating a desire for dialogue and cooperation, which drew significant international attention [1][3] - Bessent acknowledged the withdrawal of 12 countermeasures against Eastern countries due to issues in the rare earth supply chain, highlighting the U.S.'s dependency on Eastern technology for 80% of its rare earth processing capacity [3] Group 2 - Bessent's recent statements reflect a significant change in tone, suggesting that the U.S. is now open to a win-win agreement with Eastern countries, contrasting sharply with previous characterizations of Eastern nations as "rule-breakers" [5] - Analysts interpret this shift as a sign of the U.S.'s passive position in the economic negotiations, unable to bear the costs of complete decoupling while still reliant on Eastern supply chains [5] - The U.S. faces deep-seated anxieties within its capital markets, with estimates suggesting that a phased agreement could save multinational companies over $100 billion annually in compliance costs [7] Group 3 - The U.S. is grappling with a threefold economic dilemma: a federal debt exceeding $36 trillion, stagnation in manufacturing repatriation plans, and a weakening foundation of financial hegemony [7] - The ongoing economic cooperation between Eastern countries and regions like Africa and Latin America is creating alternative resource settlement networks that bypass the traditional dollar system, diminishing the U.S.'s ability to exert financial pressure [7] - The International Monetary Fund has noted that the effectiveness of unilateral sanctions is declining as global supply chains undergo significant restructuring [7]

Core Viewpoints - After excluding the significant impact of the impairment from the Bank of Communications, HSBC's Q2 revenue and profit significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a robust underlying trend [1][2][17] - The impairment is a one-time disturbance and will not affect dividend amounts or capital [1][4][17] Financial Performance - HSBC's Q2 2025 revenue, after excluding significant items, was $17.657 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing market expectations [1][3] - The net profit after tax for Q2 2025 was $7.707 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, also exceeding market consensus [1][3][4] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 5 basis points to 2.41% in Q2 2025 [1] Income Breakdown - Net interest income was $10.714 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2%, but the decline is narrowing and exceeded market expectations [3][9] - Non-interest income continued to grow strongly, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, surpassing market expectations by 12 percentage points [3][8] - Wealth management and transaction banking non-interest income grew by 23% and 6% respectively [3][8] Cost Management - Credit costs slightly increased but remain manageable, with a guidance adjustment to 40 basis points due to pressures in Hong Kong's commercial real estate [4][13] - Operating costs were controlled effectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% after excluding significant items, which is lower than revenue growth [4][15] Future Outlook - HSBC maintains its guidance for 2025 net interest income at $42 billion, with expectations for stable loan growth and limited impact from Hibor fluctuations [5][9] - The bank's return on tangible equity (ROTE) is expected to remain around 15%, supported by strong non-interest income and effective cost management [6][17] - The bank plans to continue its strategy of divesting non-core businesses to enhance focus on global transaction banking and wealth management [15][17] Dividend and Share Buyback - HSBC declared a dividend of $0.10 per share for Q2 2025, with a total cash return of $0.22 per share [1][6] - The bank announced a $3 billion share buyback, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns [6][16] Strategic Positioning - HSBC is positioned as a key beneficiary of the restructuring of international supply chains and the global allocation of wealth by affluent Asian residents [1][18] - The bank's strong ROTE and high dividend yield present significant investment value [1][18]