来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 梁银妍）12月2日，摩根士丹利举办线下媒体圆桌分享会，摩根士丹利中国 首席经济学家邢自强和摩根士丹利中国首席股票策略师王滢讨论了2026年中国经济和股市策略。 邢自强预测，2026年宏观政策将保持"温和扩张"的基调。财政政策方面，广义财政赤字预计温和扩张， 支出重点仍将是科技自主和基础设施等供给侧领域。货币政策将配合财政发力，采取"适度宽松"策略， 预计可能更多依赖定向工具如再贷款、PSL等准财政工具支持经济。 摩根士丹利表示，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀"论祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升，中国股 市重新被定义为有"成长性的市场"。该机构小幅上调了中国股票指数目标，将2026年12月沪深300指数 的目标点位定为4840点，并表示"明晟中国指数12个月前瞻市盈率在12至13倍之间是合理的"。 2026年宏观政策将保持"温和扩张"基调 邢自强认为，去年9月24日是一个重要拐点，政策适时调整使市场有了"定心丸"。"中国企业竞争力与科 技创新能力上了新台阶，以DeepSeek为代表的AI时刻、人形机器人崛起、智能驾驶汽车开拓全球市场 等，显示企业创新与科 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant influx of capital into the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector, driven by southbound funds and ETF investments, indicating strong market confidence in Chinese innovative drug companies [4][12]. Fund Flows - On September 11, southbound funds purchased HKD 18.989 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks, with innovative pharmaceuticals accounting for six of the top ten active stocks, totaling a net buy of HKD 2.929 billion, which represents 36.07% of the top ten net buy scale [4][5]. - ETFs also saw substantial inflows, with a total net inflow of HKD 15.558 billion on the same day, where the pharmaceutical index captured eight spots in the top 30, with innovative pharmaceutical indices collectively attracting HKD 6.183 billion, making up 39.74% of the total inflow [6][8]. Performance Metrics - The Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 107.29%, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at a historical high, indicating a strong performance but also raising caution regarding potential overvaluation [2][12]. - The article notes that since 2025, there have been 540 business development (BD) transactions globally in innovative drugs, with Chinese companies involved in 83 transactions, amounting to USD 84.531 billion, which is 51.73% of the global total [12]. Investor Sentiment - Global funds are increasingly allocating resources to Chinese assets, with a notable rise in hedge fund positions in China, reaching a two-year high, reflecting a positive outlook on the Chinese market [13][14]. - Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley emphasize that breakthroughs in technology and supportive policies in China are key factors attracting foreign investment [14].