Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Australian and New Zealand dollars is attributed to a global asset reallocation triggered by Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant withdrawal of funds from dollar assets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's ultimatum to the Federal Reserve, threatening to fire Chairman Powell if interest rates are not cut, has raised doubts about the Fed's independence [4]. - The US dollar index has fallen to a three-year low, and the yield curve for US Treasury bonds has steepened [4]. - Hedge funds have begun to sell off dollar assets following the White House's acknowledgment of the option to dismiss the Fed chairman [4]. Group 2: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar reached a high of 0.6438 against the US dollar, breaking through a key resistance level of 0.6409, while the New Zealand dollar rose to 0.6028, marking its highest point since November 7 of the previous year [5]. - Analysts suggest that if the Australian dollar stabilizes above the 200-day moving average of 0.6474, it could confirm a V-shaped reversal pattern, targeting the 0.68 - 0.69 range [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May, with a 20% chance of a 50 basis point cut, projecting a total reduction of 125 basis points for the year [5]. - For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, there is a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.25% in May, with expectations of a year-end rate of 2.75% [6]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The Australian dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate touched a low of 1.0672, reflecting a relatively pessimistic outlook on the Australian economy [6]. - The ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve is prompting a global reassessment of asset allocations, potentially benefiting Australian and New Zealand currencies amid a crisis of confidence in the US dollar [6].