Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing a historic sell-off due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and hawkish stances from major global central banks, with the dollar index hitting a two-and-a-half-month low and a year-to-date decline of nearly 10% [1][4]. Group 1: US Dollar Performance - The dollar index fell to 97.767, marking a potential record annual decline since 2003, and the worst performance since 2017 [1]. - The euro has risen over 14% against the dollar this year, potentially achieving its best annual performance since 2003 [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Despite solid US GDP data, market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remain strong, with predictions of two more 25 basis point cuts by 2026 [4][5]. - In contrast, central banks in the Eurozone, Australia, and New Zealand are signaling tightening policies, with some markets anticipating rate hikes instead of cuts [4][6]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The weakness of the dollar has led to a rise in non-US currencies, with the British pound and Australian dollar reaching multi-month highs [4]. - The Australian dollar has appreciated by 8.4% against the US dollar this year, while the New Zealand dollar has also reached a two-and-a-half-month high [6]. Group 4: Gold and Safe-Haven Assets - The depreciation of fiat currencies has driven spot gold prices to a historical high, reflecting a trend of capital flowing into safe-haven assets amid global policy uncertainty [4][9]. Group 5: Japanese Yen Intervention Risks - The Japanese yen has weakened despite a recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, raising concerns about potential market intervention by Japanese authorities [10]. - The Japanese Finance Minister has indicated that the government has "free hand" in managing excessive volatility in the yen, which has temporarily halted its decline [10].

对于澳洲联储未来的政策路径，全球货币市场已提前做出一定定价。从当前利率衍生品交易数据来看， 市场预期澳洲联储在明年2月的货币政策会议上启动加息的概率相对较低，主要原因在于短期内通胀数 据的持续性仍需验证，央行大概率会保持观望。但与之形成鲜明对比的是，市场对澳洲联储在明年年中 前后采取加息行动的可能性定价更为充分，多数机构已将这一预期纳入交易策略。业内分析人士指出， 澳洲联储后续大概率会在获取更多关键经济数据(包括通胀、就业、经济增长等)后，于明年上半年做出 是否加息的关键政策判断。 交叉盘市场方面，澳元兑日元、纽元兑日元在亚洲时段出现小幅回调，主要受短期获利盘了结影响，但 整体汇价仍维持在多年高位附近运行，强势格局未改。这一走势背后有着明确的驱动逻辑：一方面，澳 新央行当前均保持对通胀的警惕，政策立场偏紧，而日本央行仍维持负利率政策，两者之间的货币政策 路径差异持续扩大，导致利差优势凸显；另一方面，在全球利率环境相对复杂的背景下，市场对高息货 币的偏好显著提升，进一步支撑澳元、纽元兑日元的高位运行。 展望后市，澳元与纽元的短期走势仍将面临多重因素的共同影响。具体来看，全球风险情绪的波动将直 接影响商品货币的需 ...

UNforex 12月18日讯 周四欧洲早盘，国际黄金延续谨慎震荡态势。此前连续上涨后，部分投资者选择 在关键数据公布前减仓，短线走势以获利回吐与观望情绪交织为主。同时，全球央行政策动向与地缘政 治风险推动外汇市场波动加大。 美元指数周三小幅反弹至98.50下方，周四欧洲早盘横盘整理。欧元/美元一度跌至1.1700，美盘回升至 1.1745；英镑/美元受英国疲软通胀数据承压，一度逼近1.3300，目前交投于1.3365；澳元/美元下探至 0.6600，美元/日元关注156.00，纽元/美元回落至0.5760。全球央行方面，欧洲央行维持政策不变，拉加 德将于当地时间13:45发表讲话；英国央行预期降息25个基点，日本央行利率决议定于周五公布。 市场核心关注美国11月CPI将于北京时间今晚公布。受政府停摆影响，本次报告不含月度CPI及10月完 整数据，市场分析主要集中在年度同比数据。市场一致预期显示，11月整体CPI同比上涨3.1%，核心 CPI同比上涨3.0%。部分机构认为假日折扣可能短期压低商品价格，但影响阶段性明显。道明证券预计 能源价格回升可能使整体通胀略高于预期，核心CPI维持稳定。数据结构将直接影响美 ...

Group 1 - The euro increased by 0.86% this week, closing at 1.1742 against the US dollar, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement on December 10 [1] - The British pound rose by 0.31% this week, reaching 1.3370 against the US dollar [1] - The Swiss franc depreciated by 1.10% against the US dollar, closing at 0.7959 [1] Group 2 - The Australian dollar increased by 0.18% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.47% [1] - The Canadian dollar fell by 0.36% against the US dollar [1] - The Swedish krona appreciated by 1.39% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krone decreased by 0.24% [2] - The Danish krone increased by 0.84% against the US dollar [2] Group 3 - The Polish zloty rose by 0.94% against the US dollar, while the Hungarian forint fell by 0.23% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the US dollar against various currencies, highlighting both gains and losses in different pairs [1]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar against the Japanese yen decreased by 0.25%, closing at 155.63 yen, before slightly rising to a high of 156.16 yen and then dropping to a low of 154.95 yen [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.39% against the US dollar, while the British pound saw a marginal increase of 0.03% [1]. - The US dollar declined by 0.63% against the Swiss franc, indicating a notable shift in this currency pair [1]. Group 2: Commodity Currencies - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.20% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.17% [1]. - The Canadian dollar also experienced a slight decline of 0.10% against the US dollar [1]. Group 3: Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona rose by 0.12% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krona increased by 0.13% [1]. - The Danish krone appreciated by 0.38% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty gained 0.37% [1]. - The Hungarian forint saw an increase of 0.28% against the US dollar, reflecting positive movement in these currencies [1].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced a decline against several currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, while the euro and British pound strengthened against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar fell by 0.48% against the Japanese yen, closing at 155.13 yen, with a trading range of 155.91 to 155.01 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.42% against the US dollar, reaching 1.1673, showing a consistent upward trend [1] - The British pound increased by 1.06% against the US dollar, closing at 1.3352, also reflecting a continuous rise [1] - The US dollar declined by 0.47% against the Swiss franc, ending at 0.7994 [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.57% against the US dollar [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.74% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.16% against the Canadian dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.64% against the US dollar [1] - The Norwegian krone rose by 0.75% against the US dollar [1] - The Danish krone increased by 0.42% against the US dollar [1] - The Polish zloty strengthened by 0.53% against the US dollar [1] - The Hungarian forint rose by 0.37% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing a rebound against the US dollar, with a cumulative increase of approximately 1.38% over the past five trading days, closing at 1.3242 [1] Currency Movements - The euro has appreciated by 0.23% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1597, while it has depreciated by 0.30% against the British pound, at 0.87599 [1] - The US dollar has declined by 0.42% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.8041 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar has risen by 0.78% and the New Zealand dollar by 1.32% against the US dollar, with a notable short-term surge at 09:00 [1] - The US dollar has decreased by 0.41% against the Canadian dollar [1] - The Swedish krona has appreciated by 0.42%, the Norwegian krone by 0.31%, and the Danish krone by 0.22% against the US dollar [1] - The Polish zloty has remained relatively stable against the US dollar, while the Hungarian forint has increased by 0.32% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing significant volatility, with a focus on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data releases, including retail sales, producer price index, consumer confidence index, and private sector employment report [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Data - Key U.S. macroeconomic data to be released includes September retail sales and producer price index, November consumer confidence index, and weekly private sector employment report [1]. - The market is awaiting these data releases, which are expected to influence trading decisions [3]. Group 2: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar remains stable against major currencies, with the dollar index hovering above 100.00 after a flat close on Monday [3]. - Despite a rise in risk appetite and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, the dollar is not showing significant weakness as investors await data [3]. - The New Zealand dollar is under pressure, trading near 0.5600, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [3]. - The euro is trading in a sideways pattern above 1.1500, with the European Central Bank set to release a financial stability assessment report [3]. - The British pound is also trading narrowly around 1.3100, with investors closely monitoring the upcoming autumn budget announcement [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.6% on Monday, contributing to a strong close for major U.S. stock indices, although U.S. stock futures saw a slight decline of about 0.1% in the European morning session [3]. - Gold prices were boosted by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, closing above $4100 with a daily increase of over 1.5% [3]. - XAU/USD is maintaining a volatile pattern, facing slight pressure below $4150 during the European session [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, and other currencies against the US Dollar, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market on November 11. Currency Movements - The Euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US Dollar, reaching 1.1586, and stabilized around 1.1560 before a short-term surge at 21:21 [1] - The British Pound decreased by 0.06% against the US Dollar, trading at 1.3166, and experienced a sharp decline to a daily low of 1.3117 following the release of UK employment data at 15:00 [1] - The Euro gained 0.32% against the British Pound [1] Other Currency Pairs - The US Dollar depreciated by 0.59% against the Swiss Franc, settling at 0.8003, with a notable decline after 21:00 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar, while the New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.19% [1] - The US Dollar also saw a decrease of 0.07% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 0.63% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona increased by 0.79% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona rose by 0.25% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.38% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint saw a slight decline of 0.05% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies on November 10th, with notable movements in commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars [1] Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.39% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.02 yen, with a trading range of 153.36 to 154.25 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro increased by 0.36% against the Japanese yen, while the British pound rose by 0.56% against the same currency [1] - The euro dipped by 0.04% against the US dollar, whereas the British pound appreciated by 0.15% against the US dollar [1] - The Australian dollar gained 0.71% against the US dollar, trading at 0.6538, with a notable V-shaped movement observed [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.43% against the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.19% against the US dollar [1] - The Swedish krona rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krona increased by 0.43%, while the Danish krone slightly decreased by 0.03% [1] - The Polish zloty appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint rose by 0.11% against the US dollar [1]