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美元盘中走强 交易员在鲍威尔讲话前重新考虑降息押注
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 06:59
亚洲交易时段盘中,美元走强,周线料表现强劲。在美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔(JeromePowell)发表可 能决定近期货币政策走向的讲话之前,投资者对降息押注进行了重新评估。 7月就业报告意外疲软,加 上5月和6月的招聘数据大幅下调,提升借贷成本即将下调的预期,交易员甚至预估9月的下一次会议将 大幅降息。不过此后,其他政策制定者的谨慎言论,以及经济数据闪现通胀风险,削弱原本的预期。 CMEFedWatch工具显示,市场预估9月降息25个基点的可能性为75%,低于一周前的92%。 日元兑美元回落至148.63,本周可能下跌1%。数据显示,日本7月份核心通胀率连续第二个月放缓,但 仍高于央行2%的目标,使未来几个月加息的预期持续存在。 ING高级经济学家MinJooKang表示:"我们 预计日本央行将在10月上调政策利率。核心通胀率可能会在较长时间内保持在3%以上,这将支持日本 央行的正常化政策。" 澳元变化不大,报0.6425美元,本周料下跌1.2%;纽元略有回落,报0.58135美 元,本周料下跌1.9%,为四个多月来最大跌幅。 编辑:崔凯 美联储官员周四对下月降息的可能性态度冷淡,这为鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克森霍 ...
日元涨0.3%,英镑涨超0.5%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 21:48
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar depreciated by 0.31% against the Japanese yen, closing at 147.38 yen, with a trading range of 148.17 to 147.09 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar [1]. - The British pound increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar fell by 0.25% against the Swiss franc [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.32% [1]. - The US dollar experienced a slight decline of 0.08% against the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.11% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose by 0.17% [1]. - The Danish krone increased by 0.26% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.28% [1].
欧元、瑞郎、澳元、纽元、北欧克朗、兹罗提在“美联储决议日”至少跌1%
news flash· 2025-07-30 21:05
Core Points - The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, rising by 0.71% to 149.52 yen, with a trading range of 147.81 to 149.53 yen during the day [1] - The release of US GDP data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference led to two waves of upward movement in the market [1] - The euro and British pound both declined against the yen, with the euro down 0.52% and the pound down 0.13% [1] Currency Movements - The euro fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.84% against the dollar [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar dropped by 1.15% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 1.00% [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Canadian dollar by 0.44% [1] Other Currency Trends - The Swedish krona declined by 1.47% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 1.18% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the Polish zloty dropped by 1.14% [1]
欧元跌1.3%,瑞郎跌约1.1%
news flash· 2025-07-28 21:06
Group 1 - The euro declined by 1.30% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1588 after a period of high volatility following a tariff agreement between the EU and the US [1] - The euro also fell against the British pound by 0.76%, against the Swiss franc by 0.24%, and against the Danish krone by 0.01%, while it rose against the Polish zloty by 0.36% [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.62% against the US dollar, while the US dollar appreciated by 1.07% against the Swiss franc [1] Group 2 - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.70% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.86% [2] - The Swedish krona declined by 0.96% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 0.38% [2] - The Danish krone fell by 1.29% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty dropped by 1.65% [2]
日元涨约0.5%,瑞郎涨超0.7%
news flash· 2025-07-22 20:59
Core Viewpoint - The currency market experienced fluctuations with the US dollar showing mixed performance against major currencies, particularly a decline against the Japanese yen and a rise against the euro and British pound [1] Currency Performance - The US dollar fell by 0.48% against the Japanese yen, closing at 146.67 yen, with a trading range of 147.95 to 146.31 yen during the day [1] - The euro remained stable against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.19% against the yen [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.50% against the US dollar, and the British pound increased by 0.30% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar declined by 0.72% against the Swiss franc [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.45% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.57% against the Canadian dollar [1] Scandinavian Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.66% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krone increased by 0.81% [1] - The Danish krone rose by 0.52% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty increased by 0.32% against the US dollar [1]
7月9日汇市晚评:日本央行加权通胀中值仍低于2% 美元/日元突破147关口
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-09 09:44
Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]
周二(7月8日)纽约尾盘,美元兑日元涨0.34%,报146.55日元,日内交投区间为145.83-146.98日元。欧元兑美元涨0.16%,英镑兑美元跌0.08%,美元兑瑞郎跌0.32%。商品货币对中,澳元兑美元涨0.60%,纽元兑美元涨0.07%,美元兑加元跌0.14%。瑞典克朗兑美元涨0.18%,挪威克朗兑美元涨0.42%。丹麦克朗兑美元涨0.15%,波兰兹罗提兑美元涨0.31%。
news flash· 2025-07-08 20:58
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies on July 8th, with specific focus on the dollar's strength against the Japanese yen and other currencies [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.34% against the Japanese yen, reaching 146.55 yen, with a trading range of 145.83 to 146.98 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.16% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.08% against the dollar [1]. - The Swiss franc saw a decline of 0.32% against the US dollar [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar increased by 0.60% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.07%, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.14% against the US dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.18% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone increased by 0.42% [1]. - The Danish krone rose by 0.15% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.31% against the US dollar [1].
英镑跌0.8%,波兰兹罗提在降息日跌0.4%,加元涨0.4%
news flash· 2025-07-02 21:03
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, particularly focusing on the movements of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies, highlighting significant changes in response to the release of the ADP employment data. Currency Movements - The US dollar rose by 0.17% against the Japanese yen, closing at 143.66 yen, showing an M-shaped pattern of rise and fall throughout the day [1] - The dollar sharply dropped from around 144.20 to nearly 143.40 following the release of the ADP employment data [1] - The euro increased by 0.08% against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.64%, experiencing a rapid decline from approximately 197.500 to around 196.000 [1] Other Currency Pairs - The euro fell by 0.08% against the US dollar, while the British pound dropped by 0.81% against the dollar and by 0.74% against the euro [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.04% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.18% and the Canadian dollar decreased by 0.40% [1] - The Swedish krona declined by 0.42% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krone increased by 0.06% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 0.08% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty decreased by 0.41% against the US dollar and by 0.34% against the euro [1]
日元涨超0.5%,加元涨超0.6%
news flash· 2025-06-26 20:58
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the US dollar against various currencies, highlighting a decline against the Japanese yen and mixed movements against European currencies [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar depreciated by 0.56% against the Japanese yen, closing at 144.42 yen, with a trading range of 145.27 to 143.75 yen during the day [1]. - The euro fell by 0.20% against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.09% against the yen [1]. - Conversely, the euro appreciated by 0.38% against the US dollar, and the British pound rose by 0.46% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc by 0.55% [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar increased by 0.51% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.34% against the US dollar, while the US dollar fell by 0.62% against the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona declined by 0.19% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krona appreciated by 0.52% [1]. - The Danish krone increased by 0.35% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty rose by 0.59% against the US dollar [1].
金十图示:北京时间6月25日22:00将有欧元、日元、欧元兑日元、瑞郎、欧元兑瑞郎、英镑、欧元兑英镑、澳元、纽元、加元等外汇期权大单到期,14个行权价10亿以上大单,敬请管理风险。
news flash· 2025-06-25 07:23
Core Viewpoint - A significant number of foreign exchange options with large notional values are set to expire on June 25, 2023, which may impact market dynamics and require risk management considerations [1]. Group 1: Expiration Details - A total of 14 foreign exchange options with notional values exceeding 1 billion are set to expire [1]. - The expiration includes various currency pairs such as Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, Pound, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Canadian Dollar [1]. Group 2: Notional Values and Strike Prices - Notional values for various currency pairs include: - $824 million for strike prices between 143.45-143.50 [4] - $1.5 billion for strike prices between 143.90-144.00 [4] - $2.21 billion for strike prices at 144.50 [4] - $5.51 million for strike prices between 145.40-145.45 [5] - $20 billion for strike prices at 148.00 [5] - Additional notional values include: - €2.11 million for Euro/Yen at 167.00 [5] - £11 billion for Euro/Pound at 1.3400 [6] - $3.44 billion for Dollar/Canadian Dollar at 1.3700 [7] Group 3: Currency Pair Highlights - Key currency pairs involved in the expirations include: - Euro/Yen, Euro/Pound, Euro/Swiss Franc, and Dollar/Yen [9]. - The expirations may lead to increased volatility in these currency pairs as large positions are settled [1].