Group 1 - The focus in the foreign exchange market remains on the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the dollar index closing at approximately 97.85 after a decline of about 2.2% in August [1] - Market consensus indicates a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, estimated at around 87%, primarily due to lackluster PCE data [1] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump-related policies and discussions about the independence of the Federal Reserve are putting short-term pressure on the dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro and pound have shown relative strength against the dollar, while the yen has potential for mid-term appreciation due to ongoing international risk aversion, although unclear policy signals from the Bank of Japan limit its strength [1] - The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to poor economic data, with a 1.6% annual decline in Q2 GDP and a 27% drop in exports, leading to expectations of significant rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [1] - In contrast, the Australian dollar is performing more optimistically, supported by a rebound in risk appetite and strong domestic data, particularly in credit and CPI, which has reduced rate cut expectations [3] Group 3 - The futures market shows a predominance of net short positions in the euro, pound, yen, and Canadian dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are net long [3] - Notably, there was a directional shift in Australian dollar positions last week, with significant changes exceeding 20% in the holdings of the pound, yen, and New Zealand dollar [3] - A US multinational company has implemented a risk management strategy by purchasing two-month European-style call options on the Canadian dollar to hedge against potential appreciation, effectively stabilizing procurement costs and controlling exchange rate risk [3]

Group 1 - The US dollar is strengthening, with expectations for a strong weekly performance ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which may influence recent monetary policy direction [1] - Following a surprisingly weak July employment report and significant downward revisions to May and June hiring data, market participants have reassessed their expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 75% probability now estimated for a 25 basis point cut in September, down from 92% a week prior [1] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed a cautious stance regarding the likelihood of a rate cut next month, which sets the stage for Powell's upcoming remarks at the Jackson Hole conference [1] Group 2 - The euro has reached its lowest level since August 6, trading at 1.1583 USD, down 0.8% for the week, although it remains up 12% year-to-date [2] - The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six currencies, is reported at 98.75, up 0.9% for the week, ending a two-week decline [2] - The Japanese yen has fallen to 148.63 against the dollar, with expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October due to core inflation remaining above the 2% target [2]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from Deutsche Bank expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which is anticipated by the market and likely won't significantly impact the New Zealand dollar [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to adopt a more hawkish stance in its upcoming meeting, contrasting with its previously dovish position in July [1] - The market is currently digesting expectations for another rate cut, with most economists predicting that the current rate cut cycle will conclude with rates at 2.75% by mid-next year [1] - Deutsche Bank believes that the terminal rate for this round of cuts will be 3% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent signs of rising inflation have emerged, alongside improvements in the labor market and economic confidence [1] - If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signals alignment with Deutsche Bank's views in the upcoming meeting, it may provide some support for the New Zealand dollar [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to decline, closing down 0.2% at 97.856, reaching its lowest point since July 28, driven by inflation data and pressure for monetary easing [1] - The weakening dollar benefits other major currencies, with the euro rising 0.2% to 1.1698 and the pound increasing 0.5% to 1.3567, despite a weak UK labor market [3] - Emerging markets may experience reduced capital outflow pressure and lower external debt servicing costs due to the dollar's depreciation, creating opportunities for high-yield assets [3] Group 2 - The current forex market is characterized by many major economies also being in a monetary easing cycle, which may limit the dollar's trend towards significant depreciation [4] - The dollar's decline has already triggered short-term capital flow changes in certain assets and currencies, but a large-scale global capital reallocation requires the realization and continuation of rate cut expectations [4] - Investors should monitor the Federal Reserve's post-meeting statements and the synchronized policy actions of other major central banks when betting on the dollar's trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar depreciated by 0.31% against the Japanese yen, closing at 147.38 yen, with a trading range of 148.17 to 147.09 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar [1]. - The British pound increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar fell by 0.25% against the Swiss franc [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.32% [1]. - The US dollar experienced a slight decline of 0.08% against the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.11% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose by 0.17% [1]. - The Danish krone increased by 0.26% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.28% [1].

Currency Movements - The euro depreciated by 3.14% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1418 on July 31, following a V-shaped trend from July 1-25, with a continuous decline from July 28-31 after a trade agreement between the US and Europe [1] - The British pound fell by 3.80% against the US dollar, closing at 1.3210, while the US dollar appreciated by 2.46% against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.8126 [2] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar declined by 2.33% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell by 3.40%, and the US dollar rose by 1.79% against the Canadian dollar [3] - The Swedish krona depreciated by 3.38% against the US dollar, the Norwegian krone fell by 2.50%, the Danish krone decreased by 3.17%, while the Polish zloty appreciated by 3.98% against the US dollar [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, with the probability of a rate cut in September reduced to less than half, leading to a rise in the dollar against most currencies and a drop in gold prices by over 1% [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged, with market attention on potential signals for resuming rate hikes, while the current bearish sentiment for USD/JPY is nearing 80% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 34% and bearish sentiment of 66% [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a near-even split with 49% bullish and 51% bearish sentiment [3] - The Dow Jones Index shows 39% bullish and 61% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index has a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index shows a strong bullish sentiment of 72% and bearish sentiment of 28% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the EUR/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 39% and bearish sentiment of 61% [3] - The EUR/GBP pair shows 41% bullish and 59% bearish sentiment [3] - The EUR/JPY pair has a significant bullish sentiment of 78% and bearish sentiment of 22% [3] - The EUR/AUD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment of 86% with only 14% bullish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 31% and bearish sentiment of 69% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows 32% bullish and 68% bearish sentiment [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 79% and only 21% bullish [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 56% and bearish sentiment of 44% [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a strong bullish sentiment of 87% and bearish sentiment of 13% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 77% and bearish sentiment of 23% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 62% with only 38% bullish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair shows 40% bullish and 60% bearish sentiment [4] - The NZD/USD pair has a strong bearish sentiment of 78% with only 22% bullish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows 40% bullish and 60% bearish sentiment [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a bearish sentiment of 71% and only 29% bullish [4]

Core Points - The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, rising by 0.71% to 149.52 yen, with a trading range of 147.81 to 149.53 yen during the day [1] - The release of US GDP data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference led to two waves of upward movement in the market [1] - The euro and British pound both declined against the yen, with the euro down 0.52% and the pound down 0.13% [1] Currency Movements - The euro fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.84% against the dollar [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar dropped by 1.15% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 1.00% [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Canadian dollar by 0.44% [1] Other Currency Trends - The Swedish krona declined by 1.47% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 1.18% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the Polish zloty dropped by 1.14% [1]

Group 1 - The euro declined by 1.30% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1588 after a period of high volatility following a tariff agreement between the EU and the US [1] - The euro also fell against the British pound by 0.76%, against the Swiss franc by 0.24%, and against the Danish krone by 0.01%, while it rose against the Polish zloty by 0.36% [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.62% against the US dollar, while the US dollar appreciated by 1.07% against the Swiss franc [1] Group 2 - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.70% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.86% [2] - The Swedish krona declined by 0.96% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 0.38% [2] - The Danish krone fell by 1.29% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty dropped by 1.65% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The currency market experienced fluctuations with the US dollar showing mixed performance against major currencies, particularly a decline against the Japanese yen and a rise against the euro and British pound [1] Currency Performance - The US dollar fell by 0.48% against the Japanese yen, closing at 146.67 yen, with a trading range of 147.95 to 146.31 yen during the day [1] - The euro remained stable against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.19% against the yen [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.50% against the US dollar, and the British pound increased by 0.30% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar declined by 0.72% against the Swiss franc [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.45% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.57% against the Canadian dollar [1] Scandinavian Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.66% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krone increased by 0.81% [1] - The Danish krone rose by 0.52% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty increased by 0.32% against the US dollar [1]