Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market in 2026 may not simply follow a downward trend but could exhibit a more complex pattern of differentiation, influenced by various factors such as policy changes, supply-demand dynamics, and population movements [1][7]. Policy Changes - Since August 2023, local governments have implemented unprecedented easing policies aimed at lowering home purchase barriers, such as allowing the use of housing provident funds for down payments on second-hand homes and introducing measures to alleviate developers' financial burdens [1][2]. - The central government has signaled a commitment to stabilize the real estate market, suggesting that more supportive policies may be forthcoming [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a significant decline in new housing starts, with a 19.5% year-on-year decrease in new construction area from January to August 2025, and an 18.3% drop in residential new starts [2]. - Concurrently, cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are experiencing rapid population growth, with Hangzhou adding 195,000 residents and Chengdu 237,000 in the first half of the year, leading to an increasing supply-demand gap that is expected to push up housing prices in 2026 [3][6]. Inflation and Investment Trends - Global inflation pressures are anticipated to persist, with forecasts suggesting an average global inflation rate of 3.9% in 2026, which may drive investment into real estate as a hedge against inflation [5]. - The demand for housing in core cities is expected to increase as individuals seek to protect their assets from inflation, even if property prices do not rise significantly [5]. Population Movement and Urbanization - The "Matthew Effect" in population movement is becoming more pronounced, with traditional first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing slower population growth, while new first-tier cities like Hangzhou and Changsha attract more residents [6]. - This trend will likely lead to stronger housing demand in cities with continuous population inflow, supporting price increases [6]. Developer Strategies - Developers are shifting their focus from quantity to quality, emphasizing high-quality housing projects and improving standards and amenities [6]. - This change in supply strategy is expected to significantly impact the price structure of the housing market in 2026, with high-quality properties potentially commanding higher prices while ordinary homes may struggle to attract buyers [6]. Conclusion - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to reflect a complex interplay of factors, with significant opportunities in new first-tier cities experiencing population growth, while areas with declining populations may see substantial price drops [7][10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global macro and financial economy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Factors such as the China-US reaching a phased framework agreement, the continued expansion of the US manufacturing PMI, the doubling of US consumer credit growth, China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition, the European Central Bank's 8th interest - rate cut, and Germany's expansion of military scale contribute to the economic situation. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Important Information - The "Guidance and Establishment of the US Stablecoin National Innovation Act" was passed in the US Senate with 68 votes in favor and 30 against, marking the first approval of major cryptocurrency legislation by the Senate [1] - JD Group Chairman Liu Qiangdong stated that JD hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally, aiming to reduce global cross - border payment costs by 90% and improve efficiency to within 10 seconds, and will penetrate into C - end payment after B - end payment [1] - The World Gold Council's "2025 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" showed that 95% of surveyed central banks believe global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest since 2019 and a 17 - percentage - point increase from 2024 [1] - Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said to study and promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The talks between Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and US President Trump in Canada failed to reach a consensus on tariff negotiations, pushing the Japanese economy closer to a possible recession [1] - The European Commission proposed a legislative proposal to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas and oil by the end of 2027 [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei issued a statement early in the morning, stating the need to strongly attack the Zionist entity (Israel) and never compromise with Zionists [1] - US officials revealed that if the US joins Israel's war against Iran, Iran may attack US military bases in the Middle East, lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and trap US warships in the Persian Gulf [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated. The China - US reaching a phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The final value of the US manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit growth in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing sentiment. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time, and the upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged [1]