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格林大华期货早盘提示-20250619
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global macro and financial economy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Factors such as the China-US reaching a phased framework agreement, the continued expansion of the US manufacturing PMI, the doubling of US consumer credit growth, China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition, the European Central Bank's 8th interest - rate cut, and Germany's expansion of military scale contribute to the economic situation. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Important Information - The "Guidance and Establishment of the US Stablecoin National Innovation Act" was passed in the US Senate with 68 votes in favor and 30 against, marking the first approval of major cryptocurrency legislation by the Senate [1] - JD Group Chairman Liu Qiangdong stated that JD hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally, aiming to reduce global cross - border payment costs by 90% and improve efficiency to within 10 seconds, and will penetrate into C - end payment after B - end payment [1] - The World Gold Council's "2025 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" showed that 95% of surveyed central banks believe global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest since 2019 and a 17 - percentage - point increase from 2024 [1] - Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said to study and promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The talks between Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and US President Trump in Canada failed to reach a consensus on tariff negotiations, pushing the Japanese economy closer to a possible recession [1] - The European Commission proposed a legislative proposal to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas and oil by the end of 2027 [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei issued a statement early in the morning, stating the need to strongly attack the Zionist entity (Israel) and never compromise with Zionists [1] - US officials revealed that if the US joins Israel's war against Iran, Iran may attack US military bases in the Middle East, lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and trap US warships in the Persian Gulf [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated. The China - US reaching a phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The final value of the US manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit growth in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing sentiment. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time, and the upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged [1]