Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, aimed at enhancing financial services and promoting the use of digital currency [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - Establishment of an interbank market trading report database [1] - Creation of an international operation center for digital RMB [1] - Formation of a personal credit reporting agency [1] - Launch of a comprehensive reform pilot for offshore trade finance services in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai [1] Group 2: Financial Innovations - Development of offshore bonds in the free trade zone [1] - Optimization and upgrading of free trade account functions [1] - Implementation of innovative structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai as a pilot [1] - Collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading [1]

Demand - New housing transactions continue to rise, with a week-on-week increase of 10% in the 20 cities monitored, although year-on-year figures show a decline of 16% [12][30] - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area increased by 3% week-on-week, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing increases of 49%, 7%, and 2% respectively, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 19% [12][21] - Second-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 13% in new housing transactions, while third-tier cities increased by 12% [12][19] Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the rebar operating rate holding steady at 42.3% and PTA operating rate slightly decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 80.9% [47][61] - The operating rate for automotive tires has turned positive, supported by the "trade-in" subsidy policy, which is expected to bolster production in the short term [47][61] Investment - Rebar apparent consumption has shown weakness, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% to 2.19 million tons, and rebar prices fell by 0.2% to 3223.6 points [61][61] - Cement prices have decreased by 0.6% to 115.0 points, with a slight decline in cement shipping rates and an increase in cement inventory ratio [61][71] Trade - Port container throughput has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, while the CCFI composite index rose by 8.0%, with significant increases in freight rates for the US West and European routes [73][81] - The CICFI composite index increased slightly by 0.5%, indicating a rise in import shipping prices [73][81] Prices - Agricultural product prices have shown weakness, with the wholesale price index declining by 0.3%, while pork and egg prices also fell slightly [85][89] - International crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising by 8.9% week-on-week, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases [91][96] Interest Rate Bonds - The upcoming issuance plan for special bonds in July exceeds 500 billion yuan, with a total of 6,956 billion yuan in bonds to be issued next week [104][109] - As of June 20, the cumulative issuance progress for new special bonds stands at 38.4%, with a total of 16,904 billion yuan issued this year [109][113]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global macro and financial economy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Factors such as the China-US reaching a phased framework agreement, the continued expansion of the US manufacturing PMI, the doubling of US consumer credit growth, China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition, the European Central Bank's 8th interest - rate cut, and Germany's expansion of military scale contribute to the economic situation. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Important Information - The "Guidance and Establishment of the US Stablecoin National Innovation Act" was passed in the US Senate with 68 votes in favor and 30 against, marking the first approval of major cryptocurrency legislation by the Senate [1] - JD Group Chairman Liu Qiangdong stated that JD hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally, aiming to reduce global cross - border payment costs by 90% and improve efficiency to within 10 seconds, and will penetrate into C - end payment after B - end payment [1] - The World Gold Council's "2025 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" showed that 95% of surveyed central banks believe global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest since 2019 and a 17 - percentage - point increase from 2024 [1] - Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said to study and promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The talks between Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and US President Trump in Canada failed to reach a consensus on tariff negotiations, pushing the Japanese economy closer to a possible recession [1] - The European Commission proposed a legislative proposal to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas and oil by the end of 2027 [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei issued a statement early in the morning, stating the need to strongly attack the Zionist entity (Israel) and never compromise with Zionists [1] - US officials revealed that if the US joins Israel's war against Iran, Iran may attack US military bases in the Middle East, lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and trap US warships in the Persian Gulf [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated. The China - US reaching a phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The final value of the US manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit growth in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing sentiment. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time, and the upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged [1]

Key Points - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, focusing on enhancing the financial market infrastructure and promoting digital currency [1][2] - The establishment of an interbank market trading report database aims to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [1] - A digital RMB international operation center will be set up to facilitate the internationalization of digital currency and support financial market innovation [1] - The creation of a personal credit agency will provide diversified credit products to financial institutions, improving the social credit system [1] - A pilot program for offshore trade finance services will be launched in the Shanghai Lingang New Area to support offshore trade development [1] - The development of offshore bonds will expand financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The optimization of free trade account functions will enhance the efficient flow of funds between quality enterprises and foreign capital [1] - Structural monetary policy tools will be innovated in Shanghai, including blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing [2] - The discussion on the international monetary system highlights the need for a balanced competition among a few strong sovereign currencies [2][3] - The potential for Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to become an international reserve currency is emphasized, requiring political consensus and operational improvements [3] - The global cross-border payment system is evolving towards greater efficiency and inclusivity, driven by emerging technologies [3] - The global financial stability framework faces new challenges, necessitating a robust international financial safety net led by the IMF [4] - The governance of international financial organizations, particularly the IMF, requires adjustments in quota shares to reflect the economic standing of member countries [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The opening of the Lujiazui Forum today announced a series of measures, such as eight financial opening - up initiatives. Overall, the released information had no obvious unexpected highlights, so the market reaction was flat, maintaining a volatile state with no significant change in trading volume. The current economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state, lacking a clear trend and having limited driving force for the index. Coupled with the turbulent external situation and the sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, there are still uncertainties overseas, posing significant resistance to the short - term upward movement of the index. However, the management is determined to stabilize the market, so the downside space of the stock index is limited. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate within a range, waiting for new driving factors [4]. Market Review - Today, except for the CSI 300 Index, all other stock indexes closed down. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1.6146 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC increased in volume and price, while IH and IM increased in price with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced eight major financial opening - up initiatives, including setting up a trading report repository in the inter - bank market, a digital RMB international operation center, and a personal credit information agency; conducting a comprehensive reform pilot of offshore trade financial services in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai; developing free - trade offshore bonds; optimizing and upgrading the functions of free - trade accounts; piloting innovative structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai; and promoting RMB foreign exchange futures trading in conjunction with the CSRC [3]. - The CSRC announced that starting from October 9, 2025, qualified overseas investors will be allowed to participate in on - site ETF options trading for hedging purposes only [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Market Observation Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.23 | 10.5667 | 1.0037 | 23.8264 | 0.0486 | | IH | 0.01 | 4.843 | - 0.2249 | 8.1317 | - 0.1259 | | IC | 0.03 | 8.8945 | 0.2632 | 21.9162 | 0.0926 | | IM | 0.10 | 18.8199 | 0.8241 | 32.1988 | - 0.7768 | [5][6] Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.24 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.52 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 1191.067 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | - 1.6146 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial policies aimed at enhancing the financial system, promoting digital currency, and supporting international trade and investment. Group 1: Financial Market Enhancements - Establishment of an interbank market trading report database to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets, aiding financial institutions and regulatory oversight [1] - Creation of a digital RMB international operation center to facilitate the internationalization of digital currency and support financial market innovation [1] Group 2: Credit and Trade Innovations - Establishment of a personal credit institution to provide diversified credit products, improving the social credit system [2] - Launch of a comprehensive reform pilot for offshore trade finance services in the Shanghai Lingang New Area to support offshore trade development [3] Group 3: Financing and Investment Facilitation - Development of offshore bonds following international standards to expand financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [3] - Optimization of free trade account functions to enhance efficient capital flow between quality enterprises and foreign funds, promoting cross-border trade and investment [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Innovations - Implementation of structural monetary policy tool innovations in Shanghai, including blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing initiatives [4] - Collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to advance RMB foreign exchange futures trading, improving the foreign exchange market product offerings [4]

Group 1 - The central bank, in collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission, is researching the promotion of RMB foreign exchange futures trading [1] - The initiative aims to improve the product series in the foreign exchange market, facilitating financial institutions and foreign trade enterprises in better managing exchange rate risks [1]