固定收益 | 固定收益定期 国际油价升至年内高位 证券研究报告 高频经济跟踪周报 20250621 需求：新房成交续升，汽车消费回暖 （1）地产方面，本周 20 城商品房成交面积环比续升，同比由正转负。二 线城市新房成交增幅较大，重点城市二手房成交面积环比大多下降。 （2）消费方面，乘用车零售日均销量和批发日均销量环比大幅上升，观影 消费低于季节性，出行表现有所分化，全国迁徙规模指数环周回暖，一线 城市地铁客运量环周回落。 生产：工业生产平稳向好，下游开工率回升 （1）中上游方面，螺纹钢开工率基本持平，PTA 开工率与石油沥青装置开 工率环周小幅下降，涤纶长丝开工率环周上升，指向基建开工或边际改善。 （2）下游方面，汽车全钢胎开工率由降转升，半钢胎开工率较上周小幅上 升，半钢胎绝对值仍高于历年同期水平，以旧换新补贴政策支持下短期内 对生产端或有一定支撑。 投资：螺纹钢表观消费偏弱，水泥价格有所回落 螺纹表观消费表现偏弱，螺纹钢价格环周下降，随着下游需求淡季到来， 螺纹钢需求或将呈现环比下滑的态势；水泥发运率下降，水泥库容比上升， 水泥价格有所回落。 贸易：港口吞吐量下降，出口集运价格续涨 （1）出口方面，港口 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global macro and financial economy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Factors such as the China-US reaching a phased framework agreement, the continued expansion of the US manufacturing PMI, the doubling of US consumer credit growth, China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition, the European Central Bank's 8th interest - rate cut, and Germany's expansion of military scale contribute to the economic situation. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Important Information - The "Guidance and Establishment of the US Stablecoin National Innovation Act" was passed in the US Senate with 68 votes in favor and 30 against, marking the first approval of major cryptocurrency legislation by the Senate [1] - JD Group Chairman Liu Qiangdong stated that JD hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally, aiming to reduce global cross - border payment costs by 90% and improve efficiency to within 10 seconds, and will penetrate into C - end payment after B - end payment [1] - The World Gold Council's "2025 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" showed that 95% of surveyed central banks believe global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest since 2019 and a 17 - percentage - point increase from 2024 [1] - Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said to study and promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The talks between Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and US President Trump in Canada failed to reach a consensus on tariff negotiations, pushing the Japanese economy closer to a possible recession [1] - The European Commission proposed a legislative proposal to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas and oil by the end of 2027 [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei issued a statement early in the morning, stating the need to strongly attack the Zionist entity (Israel) and never compromise with Zionists [1] - US officials revealed that if the US joins Israel's war against Iran, Iran may attack US military bases in the Middle East, lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and trap US warships in the Persian Gulf [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated. The China - US reaching a phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The final value of the US manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit growth in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing sentiment. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time, and the upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged [1]

Key Points - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, focusing on enhancing the financial market infrastructure and promoting digital currency [1][2] - The establishment of an interbank market trading report database aims to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [1] - A digital RMB international operation center will be set up to facilitate the internationalization of digital currency and support financial market innovation [1] - The creation of a personal credit agency will provide diversified credit products to financial institutions, improving the social credit system [1] - A pilot program for offshore trade finance services will be launched in the Shanghai Lingang New Area to support offshore trade development [1] - The development of offshore bonds will expand financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The optimization of free trade account functions will enhance the efficient flow of funds between quality enterprises and foreign capital [1] - Structural monetary policy tools will be innovated in Shanghai, including blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing [2] - The discussion on the international monetary system highlights the need for a balanced competition among a few strong sovereign currencies [2][3] - The potential for Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to become an international reserve currency is emphasized, requiring political consensus and operational improvements [3] - The global cross-border payment system is evolving towards greater efficiency and inclusivity, driven by emerging technologies [3] - The global financial stability framework faces new challenges, necessitating a robust international financial safety net led by the IMF [4] - The governance of international financial organizations, particularly the IMF, requires adjustments in quota shares to reflect the economic standing of member countries [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The opening of the Lujiazui Forum today announced a series of measures, such as eight financial opening - up initiatives. Overall, the released information had no obvious unexpected highlights, so the market reaction was flat, maintaining a volatile state with no significant change in trading volume. The current economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state, lacking a clear trend and having limited driving force for the index. Coupled with the turbulent external situation and the sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, there are still uncertainties overseas, posing significant resistance to the short - term upward movement of the index. However, the management is determined to stabilize the market, so the downside space of the stock index is limited. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate within a range, waiting for new driving factors [4]. Market Review - Today, except for the CSI 300 Index, all other stock indexes closed down. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1.6146 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC increased in volume and price, while IH and IM increased in price with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced eight major financial opening - up initiatives, including setting up a trading report repository in the inter - bank market, a digital RMB international operation center, and a personal credit information agency; conducting a comprehensive reform pilot of offshore trade financial services in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai; developing free - trade offshore bonds; optimizing and upgrading the functions of free - trade accounts; piloting innovative structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai; and promoting RMB foreign exchange futures trading in conjunction with the CSRC [3]. - The CSRC announced that starting from October 9, 2025, qualified overseas investors will be allowed to participate in on - site ETF options trading for hedging purposes only [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Market Observation Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.23 | 10.5667 | 1.0037 | 23.8264 | 0.0486 | | IH | 0.01 | 4.843 | - 0.2249 | 8.1317 | - 0.1259 | | IC | 0.03 | 8.8945 | 0.2632 | 21.9162 | 0.0926 | | IM | 0.10 | 18.8199 | 0.8241 | 32.1988 | - 0.7768 | [5][6] Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.24 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.52 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 1191.067 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | - 1.6146 | [6]

刚刚，在2025陆家嘴论坛上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布8项重磅金融政策。 八是会同证监会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易。推动完善外汇市场产品序列，便利金融机构和外贸企业 更好管理汇率风险。 本文来源：央视新闻 作者孙艳 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 三是设立个人征信机构。为金融机构提供多元化、差异化的个人征信产品，进一步健全社会征信体系。 四是在上海临港新片区开展离岸贸易金融服务综合改革试点。创新业务规则，支持上海发展离岸贸易。 五是发展自贸离岸债。遵循"两头在外"的原则和国际通行的规则标准，拓宽"走出去"企业及"一带一路"共 建国家和地区优质企业的融资渠道。 六是优化升级自由贸易账户功能。实现优质企业与境外资金高效融通，提升跨境贸易投资自由化便利化 水平，助力上海高水平对外开放。 七是在上海"先行先试"结构性货币政策工具创新。包括开展航贸区块链信用证再融资业务、"跨境贸易再 融资"业务、碳减排支持工具扩容等试点。积极推动上海首批运用科技创新债券风险分担工具，支持私 募股权机构发行科创债券。 一是设立银行间市场交易报告 ...

Group 1 - The central bank, in collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission, is researching the promotion of RMB foreign exchange futures trading [1] - The initiative aims to improve the product series in the foreign exchange market, facilitating financial institutions and foreign trade enterprises in better managing exchange rate risks [1]