Core Market Trends - The real estate market in key cities showed a slight cooling in October after a high performance in September, with a notable divergence in market conditions [1][2] - New home prices experienced a slight increase nationally, while second-hand home prices continued to adjust downward [5][6] City-Specific Performance - In Beijing, the second-hand home transactions decreased by 23.7% month-on-month in October, with 12,087 units sold, while new home transactions were 3,453 units [2] - Shenzhen's total residential transactions (new and second-hand) fell by 10.3% in October, with new home sales down 14.1% and second-hand sales down 7.7% [2] - Shanghai's second-hand home market saw a 9.3% decrease in transactions, totaling 18,483 units, but daily sales showed a positive trend towards the end of the month [3][4] Price Dynamics - The average price of new homes in 100 cities rose by 0.28% month-on-month to 16,973 yuan per square meter, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.84% to 13,268 yuan per square meter [5][6] - In Shenzhen, the average transaction price for second-hand homes was 58,900 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% [6] Market Outlook - The end of the year is expected to see real estate companies striving to meet performance targets, with an increase in new supply in core cities potentially supporting new home sales [7] - The second-hand home transaction volume is anticipated to continue a moderate recovery, although short-term prices may remain under pressure [7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed strong performance during the "Golden Week" holiday, with significant sales figures reported [2][4][5] - In contrast, Guangzhou's market experienced a slight decline in overall sales, attributed to the lack of new policies and pre-holiday sales activities [2][6][8] Group 1: Market Performance - Beijing's new home average daily sales reached 0.61 million square meters during the holiday, a 52% year-on-year increase [5] - Shanghai's new home average daily sales were 0.62 million square meters, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [5] - Guangzhou's new home average daily sales were 0.81 million square meters, showing a 4% year-on-year decline [2][5] Group 2: Policy Impact - New policies implemented in August in Beijing and Shanghai contributed to the improved sales figures, with Beijing lifting purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring and Shanghai easing limits for eligible families [5][6] - The policies led to a recovery in market activity, with developers increasing their sales efforts during the holiday [4][5] Group 3: Notable Sales - In Beijing, projects like Xiangshan Yuyue achieved sales of 1.04 billion yuan, while in Shanghai, the Poly Tianyi project sold 1.96 billion yuan [4][6] - In Guangzhou, several projects exceeded 1 billion yuan in sales, with the Yuexiu South TOD project achieving 200 million yuan in a single day [6][8] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Despite the overall decline in Guangzhou, certain "red plate" projects performed exceptionally well, indicating that there is still purchasing power in the market [8][9] - The market remains polarized, with some properties experiencing high demand while others struggle to attract buyers [3][9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that while buyers have the financial capacity, many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, impacting overall market activity [10]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market in 2026 may not simply follow a downward trend but could exhibit a more complex pattern of differentiation, influenced by various factors such as policy changes, supply-demand dynamics, and population movements [1][7]. Policy Changes - Since August 2023, local governments have implemented unprecedented easing policies aimed at lowering home purchase barriers, such as allowing the use of housing provident funds for down payments on second-hand homes and introducing measures to alleviate developers' financial burdens [1][2]. - The central government has signaled a commitment to stabilize the real estate market, suggesting that more supportive policies may be forthcoming [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a significant decline in new housing starts, with a 19.5% year-on-year decrease in new construction area from January to August 2025, and an 18.3% drop in residential new starts [2]. - Concurrently, cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are experiencing rapid population growth, with Hangzhou adding 195,000 residents and Chengdu 237,000 in the first half of the year, leading to an increasing supply-demand gap that is expected to push up housing prices in 2026 [3][6]. Inflation and Investment Trends - Global inflation pressures are anticipated to persist, with forecasts suggesting an average global inflation rate of 3.9% in 2026, which may drive investment into real estate as a hedge against inflation [5]. - The demand for housing in core cities is expected to increase as individuals seek to protect their assets from inflation, even if property prices do not rise significantly [5]. Population Movement and Urbanization - The "Matthew Effect" in population movement is becoming more pronounced, with traditional first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing slower population growth, while new first-tier cities like Hangzhou and Changsha attract more residents [6]. - This trend will likely lead to stronger housing demand in cities with continuous population inflow, supporting price increases [6]. Developer Strategies - Developers are shifting their focus from quantity to quality, emphasizing high-quality housing projects and improving standards and amenities [6]. - This change in supply strategy is expected to significantly impact the price structure of the housing market in 2026, with high-quality properties potentially commanding higher prices while ordinary homes may struggle to attract buyers [6]. Conclusion - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to reflect a complex interplay of factors, with significant opportunities in new first-tier cities experiencing population growth, while areas with declining populations may see substantial price drops [7][10].