Report Overview - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The prices of steel, coke, coking coal, and iron ore are expected to be volatile and strong. The steel price increase requires demand - side support. The coal - coke price is supported by cost and demand. The iron ore price is affected by the negotiation with BHP, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9][10][13] Summary of Each Section Black Variety Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side Strategy** - RB2605 (3142) and HC2605 (3295) are expected to be volatile and strong due to import restrictions on BHP iron ore, slow inventory accumulation of five major steel products, and the contradiction between low steel output and spring demand [6][9] - J2605 (1737.5) and JM2605 (1178) are expected to be volatile and strong because of the rise of iron ore price, international energy supply uncertainty, and the expected start of steel mill production [6][10] - I2605 (811.5) is expected to run strongly overall. The import restrictions on BHP iron ore lead to a short - term supply - demand gap [6][13] - **Cross - period Arbitrage** - I2605 is expected to run strongly overall, affected by supply - demand and negotiation factors [6][13] - **Cross - product Arbitrage** - Specific price data are provided for RB05 - 10, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM, but no specific strategies are given [6] Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets increased significantly in the week of March 13 (rebar + 30 - 60 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil + 40 - 80 yuan/ton) [14] - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills in China decreased for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since April 2024 (down 2.40 percentage points to 82.92%); the average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in late February slightly declined from a new high since mid - October last year [14] - **Hot Metal and Electric Furnace**: The national daily average hot - metal output decreased for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since September 2024 (down 6.39 tons or 2.81% to 221.20 tons); the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased significantly for 2 consecutive weeks from a new low since mid - February last year [17] - **Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: The weekly output of rebar in major steel mills increased for 2 consecutive weeks from a new low since early September 2024; the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased for 3 consecutive weeks from a new high since mid - December last year. The rebar inventory in major steel mills increased for 8 consecutive weeks to a new high since May 2024; the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased for 2 consecutive weeks from a new high since mid - February last year [18] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities increased for 10 consecutive weeks to a new high since May 2024; the social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities increased for 6 consecutive weeks to a new high since April 2020 [21] - **Downstream Demand**: In 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year; the national automobile production increased by 9.8% year - on - year; the national metal - cutting machine tool production increased by 9.7% year - on - year; the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by 0.7%, 1.6%, and 4.8% respectively [21] - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased for 2 consecutive weeks. The disk profit loss of rebar 2605 contract widened for 2 consecutive weeks [27] - **Spot Tons of Steel Gross Profit**: The loss of long - process and short - process steel mills' rebar spot tons of steel gross profit narrowed after widening for 2 consecutive weeks [30] Conclusion and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The news boosts the expected steel cost and price, and the steel price is expected to be volatile and strong, but further increase requires demand support. Pay attention to the BHP event and the Middle East situation [35][37] - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to fluctuate between 80 - 140 yuan/ton; the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate between - 40 - 20 yuan/ton [37][38] Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major coke spot markets generally decreased, and the prices of major coking coal markets were stable with a slight decline [40] - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants increased slightly; the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises' coke remained basically unchanged [40] - **Inventory and Profit**: The coke port inventory decreased, the steel enterprise inventory increased, and the independent coking plant inventory decreased. The independent coking enterprise's average profit per ton of coke turned from profit to loss [44] - **Mine Output, Start - up Rate, and Inventory**: The daily average output and start - up rate of 523 sample mines increased for 3 consecutive weeks from a record low since January 2021. The fine coal and raw coal inventory of sample mines decreased [44] - **Import and Inventory**: In 2025, China's coking coal imports decreased by 2.66% year - on - year. The port coking coal inventory decreased, and the coking plant and steel enterprise coking coal inventory increased [49] - **Monthly Output**: In 2025, China's raw coal output increased by 1.53% year - on - year, and the coke output increased by 3.03% year - on - year [52] Conclusion and Suggestions - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise due to cost and demand support. The downstream steel mills will resume production as the terminal demand starts [56] Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of March 12, the 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased. The spreads between some high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder changed [57] - **Inventory and Port Clearance Volume**: As of March 13, the 45 - port iron ore inventory increased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, the steel mill's imported ore inventory available days remained at 23 days, and the sintered powder ore inventory of sample steel mills decreased [61] - **Shipping and Arrival**: In the week of March 6, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. It is expected that the Australian shipments and arrival volume will remain at a low level in the short term [63] - **Domestic Mine Output and Start - up**: In 2025, the domestic iron ore output decreased by 5.59% year - on - year. As of March 13, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises increased for 2 consecutive weeks, and the iron concentrate output is expected to increase slightly [69] - **Port Transaction Volume and Hot - Metal Cost**: As of March 12, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore transaction volume at major ports increased. As of March 13, the average tax - excluded hot - metal cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [71] - **Daily Average Hot - Metal Output, Blast Furnace Start - up Rate, and Capacity Utilization**: As of March 13, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills decreased, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased, the start - up rate increased slightly, and the profitability rate increased. The hot - metal output is expected to recover quickly after the two sessions [78] - **Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: In the week of March 13, the actual weekly output of five major steel products increased, the consumption increased, the steel mill inventory increased, and the social inventory continued to accumulate [80] - **Transportation Cost**: As of March 11, the main iron ore freight rates increased. As of March 12, the Baltic Dry Index and the Capesize Freight Index decreased [86] Conclusion and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: The import restrictions on BHP iron ore lead to a short - term supply - demand gap. The iron ore price is affected by the negotiation with BHP. It is recommended to buy on dips during the price decline [89][92] - **Basis**: As of March 12, the basis between the Qingdao Port iron ore spot price and the iron ore futures 2505 contract narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton in the future [92]

Core Viewpoint - The Simandou project in Guinea has officially commenced production, marking a significant milestone in the global iron ore market and potentially reshaping supply dynamics and trade flows [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Simandou project is the largest greenfield integrated mining and infrastructure project in Africa, developed by a consortium including the Guinea government, Winning Consortium, and SimFer [2]. - The project will deliver over 600 kilometers of newly constructed multi-purpose railway across Guinea, along with supporting barge and transshipment port facilities [1]. Group 2: Production and Impact - The Simandou mine is expected to produce an initial annual output of 120 million tons of iron ore, with an average grade exceeding 65% [1]. - The commencement of the project is viewed as a historic moment for the global iron ore market, likely to directly influence medium to long-term prices and reshape the global supply and trade landscape [1].