Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the production and sales of the four major iron ore mines remained at a high level. Vale had a significant year-on-year increase, Rio Tinto's production returned to a high range after recovering from the weather impact in Q1, FMG's shipments increased steadily, and BHP improved quarter-on-quarter. The overall supply rhythm was stronger than that in Q3 [1]. - In terms of production in Q4, Rio Tinto and BHP increased quarter-on-quarter, Vale maintained a high level, and FMG declined slightly. For the whole year of 2025, Vale and FMG contributed the main increments. In terms of sales, Rio Tinto's annual shipments were lower than the mid - point of the guidance target range due to the weather impact in Q1. In 2025, the sales of Vale and FMG increased year-on-year, and BHP maintained a stable release rhythm [2]. - Despite the weather disturbances in Q1, the four major mines achieved overall production and sales growth in 2025 thanks to the strong recovery in the following three quarters. It is expected that the total production of the four major mines will continue to grow in 2026 [2]. Summary by Company Rio Tinto - In Q4 2025, the iron ore production in the Pilbara region reached about 89.67 million tons (100% equity), with a year-on-year increase of about 3.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 6.7%. The production and shipment gaps caused by the cyclone in Q1 were gradually repaired in Q2 and Q3. The annual Pilbara production was about 327 million tons (100% caliber), basically the same as in 2024; the annual shipment was 326.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, at the lower end of the guidance range [7]. - In terms of product structure, the sales proportion of SP10 decreased significantly year-on-year. In Q4, the sales of SP10 were about 10.5 million tons (100% equity), a year-on-year decrease of about 50%. The average realized price for the whole year was $82.8 per wet ton (FOB), lower than the 2024 level, affected by both the decline of the price index and the product structure change [7][9]. - The Simandou project achieved its first shipment in Q4, marking the official entry of new supply in West Africa into the realization stage. Rio Tinto set its Simandou shipment guidance target for 2026 at 5 - 10 million tons, and the Pilbara shipment guidance target at 323 - 338 million tons. In 2026, the production rhythm is expected to remain stable [9]. BHP - In Q4 2025 (Q2 of BHP's 2026 fiscal year), the iron ore production of BHP WAIO was about 76.33 million tons (100% equity), a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.7% and a year-on-year increase of about 4.4%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative production of WAIO was 147 million tons (100% caliber), a year-on-year increase of 1%. The material extraction at the mine increased by 9% year-on-year, and the supply chain bottlenecks caused by the cyclone and railway maintenance have been basically digested. After the completion of the CD3 reconstruction and the promotion of the railway technology upgrade project, the system operation efficiency continued to improve [12]. - In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the production of Samarco was 4 million tons (BHP's equity caliber), a year-on-year increase of 48%. After the restart of the second concentrator, it has been running stably, and the concentration efficiency and recovery rate have improved. The company has approved the third - stage expansion plan, and it is expected to increase the production capacity to about 26 million tons per year (100% equity) in the next few years [12]. - BHP's annual production guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged in the range of 284 - 296 million tons (100% equity). Considering the progress in the first half of the fiscal year and the operation intensity in Q4, it is estimated that it can reach the upper half of the range. BHP is still negotiating the annual contract terms with China National Mineral Resources Group, and the subsequent negotiation progress needs attention [13]. FMG - In the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, Fortescue's iron ore shipments were 50.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative shipments were 100.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, setting a new high for the first half of the fiscal year. In Q4, the ore mining volume was 61.4 million tons and the processing volume was 49.8 million tons, operating at a high load. The shipments of traditional hematite were 48.3 million tons, basically the same year-on-year, indicating that the operation rhythm of the main mining areas was stable without obvious capacity disturbances [16]. - In the Iron Bridge project, the concentrate shipments in Q4 were 2.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 44%. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the cumulative shipments were 4.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The project's operation stability has improved significantly, and the concentrate shipment rhythm has become more normalized. As the production line gradually enters a stable stage, the increase in the proportion of concentrate supplements the overall shipment structure [16]. - FMG's annual shipment guidance for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged in the range of 195 - 205 million tons (100% equity), including 10 - 12 million tons from the Iron Bridge project. Based on the progress in the first half of the 2026 fiscal year and the current quarterly operation intensity, it is optimistic that it can achieve the guidance target [16]. Vale - In Q4 2025, Vale's iron ore production was 90.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. Although it slightly declined from the high in Q3, it was still at a relatively high level in recent single - quarters. The annual iron ore production in 2025 reached 336 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the highest level since 2018 [20][23]. - In terms of different systems, the production of the northern system in Q4 was 44.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5 million tons, mainly affected by the recoverable resource structure of the Serra Norte mine and phased maintenance; the annual production of S11D reached 86 million tons, maintaining a high - level operation. The production of the southeast system in Q4 was 23.9 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase. The stable operation of Brucutu and the continuous ramping up of the Capanema project contributed the main increments, and the single - quarter production of Capanema was about 3 million tons, expected to reach full production in Q2 2026. The production of the southern system in Q4 was 13.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase, and the operation of the Vargem Grande and Paraopeba systems improved significantly [23]. - In terms of sales, the iron ore sales in Q4 were 84.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, basically matching the production rhythm. The annual sales were 314 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The company adjusted the product portfolio according to the market premium changes, and the proportion of medium - grade ore and blended ore increased, making the shipment structure more balanced [23]. - Vale's annual production guidance target for 2025 was previously 325 - 335 million tons, and the actual production was 336 million tons, at the upper end of the guidance range. The production guidance target for 2026 is further increased to the range of 335 - 345 million tons. The new production mainly comes from the ramping up of existing projects and system recovery, and it is expected that the increment in the second half of 2026 will be higher than that in the first half [24].

Company Initiatives - Vale has launched a large-scale green fleet renewal plan, set to take place from February 9 to 10, 2026, with plans to order up to 30 new bulk carriers, potentially totaling $3.4 billion, aimed at increasing self-owned capacity, optimizing supply chain efficiency, and supporting its 2030 emissions reduction targets [1] Financial Performance - Vale plans to pay a special dividend of 3.58 Brazilian Reais per share, totaling approximately $2.9 billion, to shareholders in March 2026, as a reward for strong operational performance and high iron ore prices in 2025. The dividend payment scheduled for January 2026 has been executed as planned [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant shift in Australia’s approach to international trade, particularly in the context of using the Chinese yuan for iron ore transactions, marking a move towards de-dollarization [1][6] - BHP Group, one of Australia's largest mining companies, has successfully completed its first iron ore trade settled in yuan with Shandong Port Group, indicating a historic milestone in trade relations between Australia and China [3][5] - The transaction, while small in scale compared to global dollar-denominated iron ore trades, carries substantial symbolic significance for China's progress in establishing the yuan as a currency for commodity pricing [5][6] Group 2 - The use of yuan in iron ore trade represents a breakthrough for China's efforts to internationalize its currency, which has been historically limited by the dominance of the US dollar in global trade [8][10] - The initiation of yuan-denominated iron ore transactions allows China to gain more pricing power in the international market, addressing the long-standing issue of being a price taker in commodity markets [10][14] - This development may enable Australia to adopt a more neutral stance between the US and China, reducing its historical dependence on the US and allowing for greater diplomatic flexibility in the future [14]

从来没想过，铁矿石这么个看似没啥烟火气的东西。也能搅起国际大风浪。2025年，钢企老板们终于等 到了一句"暂停采购"，而澳洲那边的矿业巨头。直接懵了。 几十年里，铁矿石买卖都是"别人说了算"，中国钢厂只能认命，价格一涨。利润就被原料吃得干干净 净。 现在，局面突然变了——中国矿产资源集团一纸通知，美元计价的必和必拓海运铁矿石，暂停采购。船 货不许卸。这下轮到澳洲人着急了。想想以前，这种事根本不敢想。 矿商的货轮在海上晾着，东南亚谁吃得下？澳洲港口工人也开始担心失业——万一中国真不买了，日子 还怎么过？说到货币结算，澳洲坚持美元。背后还有更深的算盘。 美元体系稳了几十年，矿石定价全靠它，中国每年进口量那么大。汇兑成本不是小数。切换人民币，澳 洲当然不乐意——怕影响全球价格体系。怕失去话语权。 可中国这边想得更远：汇率波动风险大，清算依赖太多，钢企被动买单。谁都心里不爽。这次谈判破 裂，直接全面暂停采购。就是给对方一个"时代变了"的信号。 澳洲矿商，尤其是必和必拓，早就把中国当成"长期饭票"，价格定得高，结算必须美元。谈判时一 副"你爱买不买"的架势。中国钢厂各自为战，谁都没底气跟他们叫板。 结果，钢企赚的少。矿 ...

为了一座矿，中国竟在国外建了条重载铁路，这就是几内亚的西芒杜铁矿。这座矿到底有多重要，为啥值得我们如此费心费力？ 1997年和2003年，矿业巨头力拓集团陆续取得了西芒杜铁矿的探矿权和采矿权。核算之后发现不划算，便选择搁置开采计划。但几内亚国家还指望这座矿带 来财富，于是在2008年收回了北部矿区的矿权。后来几经转手，在2011年交给了中国铝业、宝武钢铁等中国企业。 这么好的矿难道就没被西方国家发现吗？答案是发现了，但开采难度太大了。这个难度不是指采矿，而是开采后如何运出来。铁矿地处海拔800多米的非洲 热带雨林无人山区，距离最近的港口要600多公里。几内亚内部基建又相对欠佳，想开发矿产几乎要从零开始搞基建。 目前北部矿区几内亚政府占股15%，剩下85%均由中企主导的赢联盟占有。南部矿区我们也积极参与，几内亚政府占股15%，中国铝业和力拓集团合资的公 司占股85%。至此咱们拥有了这座铁矿的主要开发权。 图标制作：21世纪经济报道 西芒杜铁矿位于非洲几内亚东南部的凯鲁阿内省，已探明铁矿储量44亿吨，预估总储量超50亿吨，是目前世界最大的未开采铁矿。 为了西芒杜铁矿，我们还派出中铁十八局，修建了一条东起西芒杜矿区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transfer of exploration rights for the Huahonggou Iron Mine to Wukuang Century Mining (Benxi) Co., Ltd. has been completed, marking a significant investment in the mining sector in Liaoning Province, with a total investment plan of 11 billion yuan for the project [1][2]. Group 1 - The exploration rights for the Huahonggou Iron Mine were transferred for a record price of 2.355 billion yuan, setting a new benchmark in Liaoning's exploration rights transfer history [1]. - Wukuang Century Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Minmetals Mining Holdings Co., Ltd., is established to ensure professional and efficient management of the Huahonggou Iron Mine project [1]. - The project aims to implement advanced mining techniques, including underground filling methods, to enhance resource conservation and environmental protection [2]. Group 2 - The total planned investment for the Huahonggou Iron Mine project is 11 billion yuan, with a construction period of 9 years [2]. - Upon completion, the mine is expected to produce 15 million tons of iron ore annually, with a maximum capacity of 20 million tons, significantly contributing to the stability and competitiveness of the regional steel supply chain [2]. - The project is positioned as a key initiative for the green transformation and high-quality development of the mining economy in Benxi City and Liaoning Province, supporting the establishment of a national iron ore base [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights concerns over oversupply in the iron ore market, driven by increasing inventories in China and higher-than-expected production from Vale [1] - Iron ore prices have fallen for three consecutive days, with futures dropping 1.7% to $97.90 per ton, potentially marking the longest losing streak since June if it continues for a fifth week [1] - Chinese port inventories of steelmaking raw materials rose by 0.5% week-on-week to approximately 161 million tons, marking an 11-week increase and nearing historical highs, indicating that supply growth has outpaced demand [1] Group 2 - Vale reported an iron ore production of 90.4 million tons in the last quarter, exceeding analyst expectations and annual production guidance, surpassing competitor Rio Tinto [1] - Increased supply from Australia and Brazil, coupled with weak demand, continues to exert downward pressure on iron ore prices, which have declined by approximately 7% this year [1]

⾹港交易及結算所有限公司及⾹港聯合交易所有限公司對本公佈的內容概不負責, 對 其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明, 並明確表示概不就因本公佈全部或任何部分內 容⽽產⽣或因倚賴該等內容⽽引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Baoli Technologies Holdings Limited 中國寶力科技控股有限公司 甲⽅： 本公司 本集團主要從事礦⽯乾磨乾選（「乾磨乾選」）業務及融媒體業務。 ⼄⽅：桌盈環球礦業有限公司 （於百慕達註冊成⽴之有限公司） （股份代號：164） ⾃願公告 戰略合作協議 本公告由中國寶⼒科技控股有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱「本集團」） ⾃願作出，旨在向本公司股東及潛在投資者提供本集團業務發展之最新情況。 本公司董事會（「董事會」）欣然宣佈，於⼆零⼆六年⼆⽉⼗⼀⽇，本公司與桌盈環 球礦業有限公司（「桌盈環球」）訂⽴合作協議（「合作協議」），就蒙古⼀鐵礦的開 採⽣產建⽴⻑期戰略合作。本次合作標誌著本集團乾磨乾選技術落地應⽤的第⼀步， 亦是重要⾥程碑，並將成為本集團與其他礦業項⽬合作的示範案例。 合作協議之主要條款 合作協議訂約⽅ 桌盈環球為⼀間於英屬處⼥群島註冊成⽴之有限 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and investment suggestions for each commodity [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][8][9]. - **Silver**: The price is expected to fall from a high level, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][8][9]. - **Platinum**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][29][30]. - **Palladium**: The price is expected to oscillate within a box, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][13]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][16]. - **Lead**: Due to losses in the recycling sector, attention is paid to the lower - level support, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Technical repair is underway, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the departure of funds before the holiday, the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesia, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the downside space is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][44]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday spot transactions, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand expectation is weakening, and the price is oscillating and falling, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The apparent demand decreases month - on - month, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][53]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand decreases month - on - month, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][53]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sentiment of the sector is weak, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][57]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: The sentiment of the sector is weak, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Long - position holders take profits, and the price oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][61]. - **Coking Coal**: Long - position holders take profits, and the price oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][62]. - **Log**: The demand expectation is poor, and the price is falling, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][65]. - **Para - Xylene**: It is in a unilateral oscillating market, and the month - spread is weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **PTA**: It is in a range - bound market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **MEG**: Interval operation is recommended, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][81]. - **LLDPE**: Spot transactions have stagnated, and funds are seeking risk - aversion, showing an oscillating market, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][84]. - **PP**: The valuation repair is limited, and the weekly export orders are declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][87]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][90]. - **Pulp**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][100]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][102]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to oscillate with support, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][108]. - **Styrene**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][111]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][114]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][118]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand remains tight, and the upward driving force is weakening, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][118]. - **PVC**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price rebounded at night, and the short - term weakness was temporarily alleviated, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][128]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][128]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the opening guidance of the near - month contract; a light long position can be established in the 7 - 9 positive spread, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][130]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][145]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][149]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental driving force is limited, and the price is supported by energy prices, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][153]. - **Soybean Meal**: It may oscillate following the US soybean, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][158]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong, with a trend intensity of +1 [2][158]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate narrowly, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][161]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][164]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][168]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][173]. - **Live Pig**: The peak season is confirmed not to be prosperous, and the release of the backlog has begun, with a trend intensity of - 2 [2][176]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][181].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 6 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2455.60 万吨，环比减 213.60 万吨，再度回落并降至相对低位。减量主要源于 巴西矿，环比降 341.50 万吨，而澳矿、非澳巴矿则是周环比增 77.40 万吨、50.50 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运大幅回落，全球矿石发运总量为 2535.30 万吨，环比减 559.30 万吨。主流矿商发运 均有所回落，四大矿商发运环比减 486.67 万吨；细分地区看澳矿环比减 540.61 万吨，因飓风扰动所致； 巴西矿环比降 31.58 万吨，非澳巴矿环比微增 12.90 万吨。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将回落，海外供应短期收缩，关注持续性。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度 ...