Group 1 - Fitch has raised its global GDP growth forecast, indicating a slowdown in the US and the job market [1] - The global growth rate is expected to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.4% this year, further slowing to 2.3% next year, and reaching 2.6% by 2027 [1] - Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has decreased, but tariffs remain high, which will weaken global growth [1] Group 2 - Increased tariffs have led to a "moderate" rise in inflation, with expectations for acceleration later this year [1] - Higher inflation is expected to suppress real wage growth, putting pressure on US consumer spending, which is projected to slow significantly by 2025 [1] - US job growth has shown a "notable" slowdown, and a weak job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more quickly [1] Group 3 - Fitch anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and December meetings, with three additional cuts expected next year [1]

Group 1 - The World Bank has revised down its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3% [1]

经合组织将2025年全球GDP增长预期下调至2.9%(之前为3.1%)，同时将2026年的预期从3.0%下调至 2.9%。 ...