A 'Now Hiring' paper sits on the table as recruiters for Teleperformance company engage job seekers at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on Sept. 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.Employment growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle that seeks to fill in data gaps created by the government shutdown.The firm said its proprietary data showed job growth of just 17,000 from the month, which would be even less than the 22,000 gain ...

Economic Outlook - Weak economic data raises concerns among analysts about the potential for the U.S. economy to slide into stagflation or even recession, with consumer confidence declining for two consecutive months, job creation falling significantly short of expectations, and inflation levels continuing to rise [1][12] - The current economic situation is reminiscent of the stagflation crisis that plagued the Western world in the 1970s and 1980s, indicating a re-emergence of this long-dormant risk [3] Stagflation Definition - Stagflation is defined as a unique economic phenomenon where production stagnation coexists with inflation, leading to rising unemployment, sluggish corporate production, and soaring prices, creating a dilemma for macroeconomic policy [4] Labor Market and Inflation - Recent data shows a sharp decline in hiring activities in August, with the labor market remaining weak, while inflation has reached its highest point since January, slightly below the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year remain high at 4.8%, significantly above the current actual rate of 2.9%, indicating a potential self-fulfilling prophecy that could further elevate actual inflation [4] Political Economic Policies - The economic governance model of the Republican Party, particularly during the Trump administration, is criticized for its large-scale tariff policies that have led to increased prices for imported goods, exacerbating inflationary pressures [6] - In contrast, the Democratic Party traditionally emphasizes balanced economic policies, with historical data showing that GDP growth rates under Democratic presidents have been higher than those under Republican presidents since 1945 [8] Long-term Economic Strategies - The Biden administration's infrastructure investment plan aims to inject $1.2 trillion over the next decade to modernize infrastructure, which is expected to create numerous jobs and enhance long-term economic growth potential [8] - Democratic policies focus on structural reforms and long-term investments rather than short-term stimulus, promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth [11] Inflation Control Measures - The Democratic approach to controlling inflation includes a multi-faceted strategy, such as releasing strategic oil reserves to stabilize energy prices and implementing the Inflation Reduction Act to lower prescription drug and healthcare costs [9] - The Republican reliance on monetary tools like interest rate hikes is seen as a one-size-fits-all approach that risks leading to economic hard landings [9] Consumer Confidence and Economic Risks - The current economic landscape is precarious, with consumer spending accounting for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and declining consumer confidence, a weak job market, and rising inflation signals warrant close attention [12] - If policymakers fail to adjust economic strategies effectively, the U.S. economy may indeed face the unsettling prospect of returning to a stagflation era, impacting living costs, job opportunities, and real income for ordinary Americans [13][15]

Group 1 - Fitch has raised its global GDP growth forecast, indicating a slowdown in the US and the job market [1] - The global growth rate is expected to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.4% this year, further slowing to 2.3% next year, and reaching 2.6% by 2027 [1] - Uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has decreased, but tariffs remain high, which will weaken global growth [1] Group 2 - Increased tariffs have led to a "moderate" rise in inflation, with expectations for acceleration later this year [1] - Higher inflation is expected to suppress real wage growth, putting pressure on US consumer spending, which is projected to slow significantly by 2025 [1] - US job growth has shown a "notable" slowdown, and a weak job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more quickly [1] Group 3 - Fitch anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and December meetings, with three additional cuts expected next year [1]

Economic Growth - In Q2 2025, the Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, while the EU overall grew by 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year, the Eurozone and EU GDP increased by 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively [1] - Finland, Germany, and Italy experienced declines in GDP by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively, while Denmark, Croatia, and Romania saw increases of 1.3% and 1.2% [1] Demand Structure - Final consumption by households showed slight growth, government final consumption rebounded, while fixed capital investment declined significantly [1] - Exports decreased, imports remained stable, and overall EU imports increased by 0.3% [1] - Inventory growth contributed approximately 0.5 percentage points to the quarterly growth, while fixed capital investment negatively contributed by 0.4 percentage points [1] Employment Trends - Employment in the Eurozone and EU grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, with year-on-year growth of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively [2] - Bulgaria, Spain, and Malta experienced the fastest employment growth rates of 1.1%, 0.7%, and 0.7% [2] - The total employment in the EU is approximately 219.9 million, with the Eurozone accounting for 171.6 million [2] Productivity Improvement - Labor productivity improved, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in the Eurozone and 1.2% in the EU based on headcount [2] - When measured by hours worked, productivity increased by 1.1% in the Eurozone and 1.5% in the EU year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential shift in monetary policy due to risks in employment growth and economic slowdown, suggesting an openness to interest rate cuts in the coming months [1] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but there are signs of significant slowdown in the labor market and economic growth [1] - Powell noted that the core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, with tariffs contributing to increased prices for certain goods [1] Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve's interest rate levels are now closer to "neutral" compared to last year, and future assessments will be cautious to avoid transient price increases leading to long-term inflation issues [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the 2% inflation target to ensure long-term expectations remain stable, reflecting on the high inflation experienced over the past five years [1] Strategic Updates - The Federal Reserve released a revised statement on its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, which includes the removal of the "average inflation targeting" framework and a return to a more flexible inflation target [1]

Core Insights - Lenovo Group has established a regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, located in the iconic Majdoul Tower in Riyadh, which houses several public investment funds, government agencies, and tech companies [1][4] - The company is also constructing an advanced manufacturing facility in partnership with Saudi Eniat, expected to begin trial production in 2026, with a capacity to produce millions of laptops, desktops, mobile phones, and servers annually [2][5] - The new manufacturing base is projected to create 15,000 direct jobs and 45,000 indirect jobs, contributing an estimated $10 billion to Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy by 2030 [2][5] Company Strategy - Lenovo aims to strengthen its global presence and capitalize on growth opportunities in Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East and Africa region [5] - The company’s CEO emphasized leveraging its leading supply chain and innovation capabilities to support Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, which focuses on economic diversification, industrial development, technological innovation, and job growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision regarding whether to lower interest rates in response to weak employment growth or to maintain rates due to persistent inflation concerns [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Since April, weak job growth has led some officials to consider a rate cut as early as next month, while others remain concerned about inflation [1]. - The average job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 average from the same period last year [2]. - The current Federal Reserve benchmark interest rate stands at 4.3% [1]. Inflation Concerns - Recent inflation reports show only a mild increase in consumer-level inflation, with little evidence that tariffs have significantly raised prices [2]. - Some officials believe that the focus should shift to supporting the job market rather than worrying about inflation, given the current economic conditions [2][3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the low unemployment rate of 4.2% indicates a still-robust job market despite the slowdown in job growth [2]. Tariff Impact - There are mixed opinions among Fed officials regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing that any price increases will be temporary [3][4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that while tariffs may raise inflation in the short term, they are unlikely to force the Fed to maintain high rates for an extended period [3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that if tariffs lead manufacturers to relocate production back to the U.S. or to higher-wage countries, it could create long-term inflationary pressures [3][4]. Future Projections - The July wholesale price report indicated significant price increases before goods reach consumers, complicating the possibility of a one-time 0.5% rate cut in September [4]. - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that such a rate cut does not align with the current economic conditions and outlook [5]. - Economists suggest that the Fed may need to revise its inflation expectations upward, as current inflation is nearing the projected core inflation rate of 3.1% by year-end [5].

Labor Market Data - The U_S_ Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to continue releasing the monthly employment report [1] - A nominee suggested pausing the report's release to address issues causing significant revisions in recent employment growth data [1] - Concerns exist regarding the credibility of the employment data and its potential impact on decision-makers [1]

Group 1 - The employment rate in rural Colombia increased by 3% year-on-year as of June 2025, with the agricultural, livestock, hunting, forestry, and fishing sectors employing 3.3 million people, an increase of 48,000 individuals [1] - These sectors account for 14% of total national employment, highlighting the significance of agriculture in the country's job market [1] - The Colombian Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Valdivieso, emphasized that this achievement reflects the government's focus on agriculture as a core policy for economic recovery and job growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore ISI warn that the S&P 500 index may decline by 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months due to high market valuations, rising inflation, slowing job growth, and weak consumer spending [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Historical data indicates that August and September are typically poor-performing months for the S&P 500 index [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for the S&P 500 has exceeded 70, suggesting that the market may be "overheated" [1] Group 2: Options Market Insights - The cost of hedging against a market downturn is increasing, with the implied volatility premium for put options reaching its highest level since the regional banking crisis in 2023 [1]