转自：新华财经 调查报告称，"受访者认为'关税影响'是美国经济前景最大的下行风险。"更严格的移民执法也被视为抑 制经济增长的因素，而生产力的提高则被认为是推动经济增长高于预期的最可能因素。 此外，预计今年底通胀为2.9%，略低于10月调查预测的3%，明年料仅小幅降至2.6%，其中关税预计贡 献0.25至0.75个百分点。 按历史标准衡量，就业增长预计仍将较为温和，每月新增约6.4万个就业岗位，远低于近期的平均水 平。失业率预计将在2026年初升至4.5%，并全年维持该水平。由于通胀居高不下且失业率仅略有上 升，美联储预计将在12月降息25个基点，但明年料仅再降息50个基点，接近货币政策的大致中性利率水 平。 编辑：王姝睿 新华财经北京11月24日电 全美商业经济协会（NABE）在年度预测调查中表示，美国经济增速明年将略 加快，但就业增长仍将疲弱，美联储将放缓进一步降息的步伐。这项调查涵盖42位专业预测人士，结果 显示，经济增长预测中值为2%，高于10月调查的1.8%。 个人支出和企业投资的增加预计将推动经济增长走高，但专业预测人士几乎一致认为，特朗普政府的新 进口关税给增长率带来至少0.25个百分点的拖累。 ...

11月21日，美国劳工统计局最新公布的数据显示，美国9月非农就业意外大增11.9万人，显著高于市场预期的5万人。这在一定程度上增加了美联储下个月不 降息的可能性。 但特朗普总统的得力经济助手之一、美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）周四表示，由于政府停摆影响了第四季度的经济增长，现在将是 美联储暂停降息的"非常糟糕的时机"。 哈塞特表示，他预计政府停摆将使第四季度GDP下降1.5个百分点。与此同时，他指出，9月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）显示，通胀情况好于预期。 "我不认为（暂停降息）是一个审慎的做法，我认为第四季的不利因素确实很强，"他在接受最新采访时表示。他还指出，9月就业报告的强劲程度不足以抵 消其他因素。 但美联储大部分官员的观点似乎都与特朗普政府相左，市场对12月降息的预期也越来越低。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克周四就警告称，目前进一步降息 可能对经济带来广泛风险。 "鉴于通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标，为了支持劳动力市场而降低利率，可能会延长高通胀周期，同时还可能刺激金融市场的风险偏好。"她说道。 当天，哈塞特还进一步解释称，航空公司高管向他抱怨，政府关门对旅行造成了多大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September shows a significant increase in employment, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions moving forward [2][3][6]. Employment Data Summary - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 jobs, exceeding economists' expectations of 50,000, marking the strongest monthly increase since April [3]. - The August non-farm payroll was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 jobs, and July's increase was also slightly revised down to 72,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 33,000 jobs for July and August combined [3]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4% in September, attributed to nearly 500,000 individuals rejoining or entering the labor force, while economists had anticipated it to remain at 4.3% [6]. - The report is significant as it provides the first official reading on this key economic indicator since the government shutdown began on October 1 [6][7]. Market Reactions - Following the report's release, U.S. stock index futures rose, and all major indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq index gaining over 2% [8]. - Despite the positive employment numbers, the interest rate swap market indicates that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December remains low, although traders have increased bets on a potential cut [10]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed a growing divide among policymakers regarding the appropriateness of further rate cuts, with some members suggesting that maintaining current rates may be more suitable [7][11]. - Analysts noted that while the employment data is positive, the rising unemployment rate and slowing wage growth could keep the Fed's options open for a potential rate cut in December [11]. Inflation and Financial Stability Concerns - Cleveland Fed President Beth Harmack warned that lowering rates to support the labor market could prolong high inflation and increase financial stability risks [12][14]. - Harmack emphasized the need to apply downward pressure on inflation to return to the Fed's 2% target, indicating a cautious approach to further rate cuts [14].

Job growth accelerated in the month heading into the government shutdown. ...

Job growth accelerated in the month heading into the government shutdown. ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicated that the slowdown in job growth is related to changes in labor supply, and tariffs continue to exert upward pressure on prices, with inflation remaining high and facing upward risks [1] Group 1 - Job growth is slowing down due to changes in labor supply [1] - Tariffs are contributing to increased price pressures [1] - Inflation remains elevated and is subject to upward risks [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Singapore's labor market is performing better than expected, supported by continuous economic growth, with an increase in total employment and stable low unemployment and layoff rates [1][2]. Group 2 - In Q3 2025, total employment (excluding foreign domestic workers) increased by 24,800, significantly higher than the 10,400 increase in Q2 and the 22,300 increase in the same period last year, driven by both resident and non-resident employment [1]. - Resident employment growth is mixed, with strong increases in financial services and health and social services, while sectors like information and communication, professional services, and wholesale trade show weak performance, particularly with a significant decline in wholesale trade employment [1]. - The overall unemployment rate remained stable at 2.0% in September, with resident unemployment at 2.8% and citizen unemployment at 3.0%, all consistent with the previous quarter and within normal ranges for non-recession periods [1]. - The number of layoffs in Q3 remained stable at 3,500, with a layoff rate of 1.4 per 1,000 employees, similar to the previous quarter's figures, primarily due to business restructuring or structural adjustments [1]. Group 3 - Looking ahead to Q4 2025, recruitment sentiment has slightly improved, with 44.1% of surveyed companies indicating a willingness to hire, which is a slight increase from the previous quarter [2]. - However, the proportion of companies planning to increase salaries has decreased slightly to 19.3%, indicating that wage growth is expected to slow down due to cost pressures, and some outward-facing industries may see an increase in layoffs [2].

Core Insights - The World Bank plans to expand its aid projects in Kenya, focusing on key sectors such as minerals, pharmaceuticals, digital economy, and energy transition [1] - The new initiative aims to enhance local pharmaceutical production capacity, develop critical mineral resources, and promote green energy and digital projects [1] - The Kenyan delegation indicated that this collaboration would help localize supply chains and boost employment growth [1] - This meeting is part of Kenya's efforts to broaden international financing channels and deepen partnerships for development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the high inflation rate of 3% in September, the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will proceed with an interest rate cut next week, raising questions about the rationale behind this decision given the persistent inflation above the target level since January 2021 [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The current benchmark interest rate of 4%-4.25% is seen as high and is believed to be suppressing economic growth, leading to a consensus among economists that a policy shift is necessary [2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation concerns to the state of the labor market, with many officials now prioritizing employment issues over inflation [2] Group 2: Employment Market - The U.S. employment market has shown signs of significant weakness, with private sector job growth nearly stagnating, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the last three months compared to 209,000 in the last three months of the previous year [3][4] - Trade uncertainties have led companies to slow down hiring, and when unable to pass on tariff costs to consumers, they often resort to layoffs, as evidenced by General Motors announcing layoffs of 200 employees [4] Group 3: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown since October 1, causing delays in the release of key economic data, including monthly employment figures and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5] - Despite the data gap, the Federal Reserve has indicated that the core trends, such as employment weakness, remain unchanged, and the uncertainty in economic outlook is still high [6] Group 4: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a divergence of opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December, with some economists believing that the rationale for the October cut will persist, while others express caution due to signs of rising inflation risks [7] - The decision for a potential December rate cut will heavily depend on forthcoming economic data, with the ongoing government shutdown complicating the availability of official data [7]

Employment Growth - Employment growth in September was essentially flat, with Carlyle reporting a job increase of only 17,000, lower than the 22,000 gain in August according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data [2][3] - ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, indicating a challenging hiring environment [3] Economic Indicators - Despite weak employment data, other economic indicators showed positive trends, with GDP growth at an annualized pace of 2.7% in September and business investment accelerating by 4.8% [4] - Consumer prices for energy decreased by 3.8%, while services excluding shelter rose by 3.3%, which are key metrics for the Federal Reserve [4] Data Sources and Comparisons - Carlyle's data is derived from its extensive global portfolio, which includes 277 companies and 730,000 employees [5] - Goldman Sachs reported a contrasting view, indicating an underlying job growth of 80,000 positions in September, suggesting a loosening labor market with more workers than jobs [5]