民生证券股份有限公司张骁瀚,黄文鹤,陈佳裕近期对南方航空进行研究并发布了研究报告《2025年半年报 点评：Q2投资损失收窄，看好全货机盈利潜力释放》，给予南方航空买入评级。 南方航空(600029) 2025年8月28日公司发布2025年中报：2025H1公司营收863亿元，同比+1.8%，归母净亏15.3亿元（24H1归 母净亏12.3亿元），扣非归母净亏20.3亿元（24H1扣非归母净亏34.6亿元）。25Q2公司营收429亿元，同 比+6.7%，归母净亏7.9亿元（24Q2归母净亏19.8亿元），扣非归母净亏8.7亿（24Q2扣非归母净亏40.1亿 元），公司同比减亏主要由于油价下降以及确认川航投资损失减少。25H1公司税前利润同比增长，归母 净亏损主要为计提较大金额所得税费用所致。 25Q2客公里收益同比降幅收窄，看好全货机潜力盈利释放。我们测算25Q2公司整体客收下滑4.9%，其中 国内同比-3.9%、国际同比-8.0%，国内和国际客公里收益降幅均较25Q1收窄（25Q1国内同比-6.0%、国际 同比-10%），国际线降幅较大我们认为或与公司加大短途国际航线运力投放有关（25H1公司国际ASK同 比 ...

Group 1 - Minsheng Securities issued a report on September 2, recommending Southern Airlines (600029.SH, latest price: 5.94 yuan) [1] - The report highlights that the year-on-year decline in passenger kilometer revenue is narrowing in Q2 2025, indicating potential profitability from all-cargo aircraft [1] - Unit fuel costs increased year-on-year in Q2 2025, but the decline in oil prices alleviates the pressure from rising unit costs [1] - The report notes that the investment loss from Sichuan Airlines has narrowed, but increased income tax expenses have negatively impacted after-tax profits [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 863 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 15.3 billion yuan [1] - The reduction in investment losses from Sichuan Airlines and the decline in oil prices contributed to the improvement in financial performance [3] - The company is optimistic about the profit potential of its all-cargo aircraft and the recovery of ticket prices in the industry [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 429 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with a net loss of 7.9 billion yuan [1] - The overall passenger revenue decline narrowed to 4.9% in Q2 2025, with domestic and international passenger kilometer revenue declines of -3.9% and -8.0%, respectively [2] - The logistics subsidiary, China Southern Airlines Logistics, generated a revenue of 94.0 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [2] Cost and Profitability Analysis - In Q2 2025, the unit cost decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, while the unit fuel cost decreased by 22% [3] - The company recorded a pre-tax profit of 6.0 billion yuan in H1 2025, up from 1.6 billion yuan in H1 2024, despite a significant increase in income tax expenses [3] - The report forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.4 billion yuan for 2025, with projections of 42.4 billion yuan and 76.7 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][5]