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多因子选股周报:超额全线回暖,四大指增组合本周均跑赢基准-20251011
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-11 09:08
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Maximized Factor Exposure Portfolio (MFE) - **Model Construction Idea**: The MFE portfolio is designed to test the effectiveness of individual factors under real-world constraints, such as controlling for industry exposure, style exposure, stock weight limits, and turnover rates. The goal is to maximize the exposure of a single factor while adhering to these constraints[39][40] - **Model Construction Process**: - The objective function is to maximize single-factor exposure, where $f$ represents the factor values, $f^T w$ is the weighted exposure of the portfolio to the single factor, and $w$ is the vector of stock weights - The optimization model is as follows: $$ \begin{array}{ll} max & f^{T} w \\ s.t. & s_{l} \leq X(w-w_{b}) \leq s_{h} \\ & h_{l} \leq H(w-w_{b}) \leq h_{h} \\ & w_{l} \leq w-w_{b} \leq w_{h} \\ & b_{l} \leq B_{b}w \leq b_{h} \\ & \mathbf{0} \leq w \leq l \\ & \mathbf{1}^{T} w = 1 \end{array} $$ - The first constraint limits the portfolio's style exposure relative to the benchmark index, where $X$ is the factor exposure matrix, $w_b$ is the weight vector of the benchmark index constituents, and $s_l$ and $s_h$ are the lower and upper bounds of style factor exposure, respectively - The second constraint limits the portfolio's industry deviation, where $H$ is the industry exposure matrix, and $h_l$ and $h_h$ are the lower and upper bounds of industry deviation, respectively - The third constraint limits individual stock deviations relative to the benchmark index constituents, where $w_l$ and $w_h$ are the lower and upper bounds of individual stock deviations - The fourth constraint limits the weight proportion of the portfolio within the benchmark index constituents, where $B_b$ is a 0-1 vector indicating whether a stock belongs to the benchmark index, and $b_l$ and $b_h$ are the lower and upper bounds of the weight proportion - The fifth constraint prohibits short selling and limits the upper bound of individual stock weights - The sixth constraint ensures that the portfolio is fully invested, with the sum of weights equal to 1[39][40][41] - The MFE portfolio is constructed for a given benchmark index by applying the above optimization model. To avoid excessive concentration, the deviation of individual stock weights relative to the benchmark is typically set between 0.5% and 1%[41][43] - **Model Evaluation**: The MFE portfolio is used to evaluate the effectiveness of individual factors under realistic constraints, ensuring that the selected factors can contribute to the actual return prediction in the final portfolio[39][40] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. National Trust Quantitative Engineering Index Enhanced Portfolio - **CSI 300 Index Enhanced Portfolio**: - Weekly excess return: 0.63% - Year-to-date excess return: 17.65%[13] - **CSI 500 Index Enhanced Portfolio**: - Weekly excess return: 0.30% - Year-to-date excess return: 8.35%[13] - **CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Portfolio**: - Weekly excess return: 0.77% - Year-to-date excess return: 18.22%[13] - **CSI A500 Index Enhanced Portfolio**: - Weekly excess return: 1.57% - Year-to-date excess return: 11.17%[13] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: BP - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation by comparing book value to market value[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $BP = \frac{\text{Net Asset}}{\text{Total Market Value}}$[16] 2. Factor Name: Single Quarter EP - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability by comparing quarterly net profit to market value[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $Single\ Quarter\ EP = \frac{\text{Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Total Market Value}}$[16] 3. Factor Name: Single Quarter SP - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation by comparing quarterly revenue to market value[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $Single\ Quarter\ SP = \frac{\text{Quarterly Revenue}}{\text{Total Market Value}}$[16] 4. Factor Name: EPTTM - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability by comparing trailing twelve months (TTM) net profit to market value[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $EPTTM = \frac{\text{TTM Net Profit}}{\text{Total Market Value}}$[16] 5. Factor Name: SPTTM - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation by comparing TTM revenue to market value[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $SPTTM = \frac{\text{TTM Revenue}}{\text{Total Market Value}}$[16] 6. Factor Name: One-Month Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures risk by calculating the average intraday true range over the past 20 trading days[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $One\ Month\ Volatility = \text{Average of Intraday True Range over 20 trading days}$[16] 7. Factor Name: Three-Month Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures risk by calculating the average intraday true range over the past 60 trading days[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $Three\ Month\ Volatility = \text{Average of Intraday True Range over 60 trading days}$[16] 8. Factor Name: One-Year Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures momentum by calculating the return over the past year, excluding the most recent month[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $One\ Year\ Momentum = \text{Return over the past year excluding the most recent month}$[16] 9. Factor Name: Expected EPTTM - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability based on rolling expected earnings per share (EPS)[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $Expected\ EPTTM = \text{Rolling Expected EPS}$[16] 10. Factor Name: Expected BP - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation based on rolling expected book-to-price ratio[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $Expected\ BP = \text{Rolling Expected Book-to-Price Ratio}$[16] 11. Factor Name: Expected PEG - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation by comparing expected price-to-earnings ratio to growth rate[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $Expected\ PEG = \text{Expected PE Ratio / Growth Rate}$[16] 12. Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures earnings surprise by comparing actual quarterly net profit to expected net profit, normalized by the standard deviation of expected net profit[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $SUE = \frac{\text{Actual Quarterly Net Profit - Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Expected Net Profit}}$[16] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. CSI 300 Index - **Best-performing factors (recent week)**: Expected EPTTM (1.19%), One-Month Volatility (1.17%), BP (1.15%)[18] - **Worst-performing factors (recent week)**: Single Quarter Revenue YoY Growth (-0.61%), Three-Month Institutional Coverage (-0.38%), Three-Month Earnings Revisions (-0.26%)[18] 2. CSI 500 Index - **Best-performing factors (recent week)**: SPTTM (1.69%), Expected BP (1.58%), Single Quarter EP (1.56%)[20] - **Worst-performing factors (recent week)**: One-Year Momentum (-1.01%), Expected PEG (-0.38%), Standardized Unexpected Revenue (-0.29%)[20] 3. CSI 1000 Index - **Best-performing factors (recent week)**: EPTTM (2.36%), SPTTM (2.14%), Expected EPTTM (2.10%)[22] - **Worst-performing factors (recent week)**: Expected Net Profit QoQ (-0.65%), One-Year Momentum (-0.48%), Single Quarter Revenue YoY Growth (-0.39%)[22] 4. CSI A500 Index - **Best-performing factors (recent week)**: Single Quarter SP (1.99%), SPTTM (1.89%), One-Month Volatility (1.69%)[24] - **Worst-performing factors (recent week)**: Single Quarter Revenue YoY Growth (-1.07%), One-Year Momentum (-0.86%), Three-Month Institutional Coverage (-0
换手率因子表现出色,中证1000增强组合年内超额3.15%【国信金工】
量化藏经阁· 2025-04-13 05:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to track the performance of index-enhanced portfolios and stock selection factors across different indices, highlighting their excess returns and the effectiveness of various stock selection factors [1][2][14]. Group 2 - The performance of the CSI 300 index-enhanced portfolio showed an excess return of -1.25% for the week and 1.61% year-to-date [1][2]. - The performance of the CSI 500 index-enhanced portfolio indicated an excess return of -1.53% for the week and 2.17% year-to-date [1][2]. - The performance of the CSI 1000 index-enhanced portfolio recorded an excess return of -0.88% for the week and 3.15% year-to-date [1][2]. Group 3 - In the CSI 300 sample space, factors such as non-liquidity shock, three-month turnover, and one-month turnover performed well recently [4][5]. - In the CSI 500 sample space, factors like expected net profit month-on-month, non-liquidity shock, and three-month earnings adjustments showed strong performance [6][8]. - In the CSI 1000 sample space, factors including three-month institutional coverage and turnover metrics performed well [9][10]. Group 4 - The public fund index-enhanced products for the CSI 300 had a maximum excess return of 1.04% and a minimum of -2.85% for the week, with a median of -0.53% [16]. - The public fund index-enhanced products for the CSI 500 had a maximum excess return of 0.86% and a minimum of -1.80% for the week, with a median of -0.62% [18]. - The public fund index-enhanced products for the CSI 1000 had a maximum excess return of 0.86% and a minimum of -1.80% for the week, with a median of -0.62% [18]. Group 5 - The total number of public fund index-enhanced products includes 67 for the CSI 300 with a total scale of 81.5 billion, 68 for the CSI 500 with a total scale of 49.3 billion, and 46 for the CSI 1000 with a total scale of 16.9 billion [15].