公募REITs市场调整
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从喧嚣到冷静:公募REITs的价值重估时刻
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-24 18:03
Core Viewpoint - The REITs market experienced a significant downturn in the second half of the year after a strong performance in the first half, with the market index retreating nearly 8% from its peak, attributed to valuation corrections, changes in funding preferences, and a wave of unlocks in the market [1][2][3] Market Performance - The CSI REITs total return index rose by 21.55% from a low of 925.46 in December 2024 to a high of 1124.91 in June 2023, but has since entered a downward trend [1] - The REITs market is facing pressure due to a combination of factors including a hot equity market drawing funds towards higher risk returns, changes in the operational performance of infrastructure assets, and a significant increase in supply without corresponding demand [2][3] Unlocking Pressure - In November alone, five REITs with over 7 billion shares faced unlocking, creating short-term selling pressure in the market [3] - The unlocking of shares is seen as a normal phase in the REITs market's development, potentially providing long-term investment opportunities if prices drop significantly [3] Investment Logic Shift - The cooling of the secondary market is affecting the primary market, with recent REIT offerings experiencing significantly lower subscription rates compared to previous high-demand scenarios [4][5] - Investors are shifting focus from speculative trading to value-based investment, emphasizing the quality of underlying assets and rational pricing [5][6] Long-term Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustments are viewed as creating new investment opportunities, particularly for high-quality assets with stable cash flows [6][7] - Analysts recommend focusing on defensive assets with high dividend yields and growth-oriented assets that have been temporarily undervalued [6][7]
2025年公募REITs市场8月报:二级现企稳趋势,券商控盘度已达50%-20250903
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-03 02:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the public REITs market was under overall pressure due to factors such as the capital diversion effect caused by the high - sentiment stock market, the rise of the risk - free interest rate, the previous excessive increase, and the unlocking impact of some projects. The CSI REITs index fell by 2.86% in a single month, and the decline was larger than that in July. However, it showed a trend of stopping the decline and stabilizing recently [4]. - The valuation of REITs has回调 to the 60% - 65% quantile, and the difference between the property - type REITs and the dividend yield is at the 70% quantile. The institutional scramble led to the subscription multiple reaching the second - highest in history, and the safety cushion for the initial dividend of the newly issued REITs was still thick. The offline subscription yield in 2025 has reached 3.34%. The brokerage control degree has reached 50%, and the insurance holdings have declined. The valuation of the to - be - issued industrial park projects still shows a large discount [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 REITs Market Adjustment Intensifies, and the Dividend Yield Difference Remains High - **Market Performance**: In August, the A - share market rose with high elasticity, while the bond market saw a significant increase in the 10 - year Treasury yield. Affected by this, the REITs market adjustment intensified, with an 8 - month cumulative decline of 2.86% [13]. - **Sector Performance**: All types of REITs indexes declined in August. The rental - housing REITs, as long - duration assets, led the decline (-5.69%), followed by the consumer - type REITs (-3.02%), and the warehousing and logistics REITs had the shallowest decline (-0.44%). After the sharp adjustment, all types of assets showed a trend of stopping the decline and rising, with the consumer - type index rising by 3.8% from August 20th to 31st [4][18]. - **Trading Activity**: The average daily turnover rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen REITs in August was 0.55%, slightly down 0.01 percentage points from July. The turnover rate performance of various types of REITs was differentiated. From August 20th to 31st, the daily turnover rates of rental - housing and public utilities REITs increased significantly [24]. - **Dividend Yield**: The property - type REITs' dividend yield difference compared with the dividend is at the 70% historical quantile, and the difference compared with the Treasury yield is at the 42% quantile. Except for the industrial park REITs, the dividend yield quantiles of other types of REITs have increased [25][27]. - **Valuation**: The valuations of property and concession - type REITs have回调 to the 60% - 65% quantile. The P/NAV of rental - housing REITs has the largest adjustment, and the current low - valuation sectors include industrial parks (48%), transportation (60%), and rental - housing (65%) [28][29]. - **IRR**: The IRR of property - type REITs has increased, while that of concession - type REITs has decreased. Only the industrial park REITs' IRR is above the 50% quantile [30][33]. 3.2 Institutions' Scramble Pushes up the Pricing Level, and New Assets Are Actively Traded in the Initial Listing Period - **New Issuance**: In August, only the CICC Vipshop Outlet Mall REIT was issued, with an offline effective subscription multiple of 252.8 times, reaching the second - highest in history. Three REITs were listed in August, and two IDC REITs reached the daily limit on the first day of listing [4][61]. - **Pricing**: Since 2025, the lower limit of the inquiry price has continued to decline. Institutions tend to bid close to the upper limit, and the profit - sharing margin has almost disappeared. The initial dividend safety cushion of similar REITs has thickened [53][54]. - **Subscription and Allocation**: In the context of concentrated institutional quotations, the average offline subscription success rate in July - August 2025 was about 99%. The average offline allocation ratio has been continuously lower than 2% since 2025, and the offline allocation ratio of the CICC Vipshop Outlet Mall REIT in August was only 0.4% [59]. - **Return**: The first - day increase has expanded, and the offline subscription yield as of 2025 has reached 3.34% [60]. 3.3 Brokerage Control Degree Has Reached 50%, and Insurance Holdings Have Declined - **Mid - year Report**: As of August 31st, 66 public REITs released their 2025 mid - year reports. In the second half of August, 14 REITs announced dividend plans, and 3 rental - housing REITs were unlocked on September 1st [65]. - **Holder Structure**: In terms of the total share, the shareholding ratio of the original equity holders and related parties has increased to 50%, the shareholding ratio of securities companies has slightly increased to 25%, and the shareholding ratio of insurance companies has slightly decreased to 10%. In terms of the tradable share, the shareholding ratio of securities companies has increased to 50%, while that of insurance companies has decreased to less than 20% [72]. - **Sector Allocation**: The whole market increased its holdings of consumer - type REITs the most, and decreased its holdings of public - utility REITs the most. Securities companies increased their holdings of transportation and industrial park REITs the most and decreased their holdings of public - utility REITs the most. Insurance companies increased their holdings of consumer - type REITs the most and decreased their holdings of industrial park REITs the most [75]. 3.4 The Valuation of In - Review Industrial Park and Energy - Type Projects Has a Large Decline, and Chengtou Kuanting Plans to Apply for Expansion - **Queuing Projects**: As of August 31st, the CICC Vipshop Outlet Mall REIT has issued a fund share inquiry announcement. Two expansion projects have been registered and are effective, and there are 10 initial issuance projects and 3 expansion projects under review [80]. - **Valuation Update**: In August 2025, the valuations of 5 projects were updated. The valuations of the Guotai Junan Dongjiu Industrial Park REIT (expansion) and the CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang Software Park REIT (initial issuance) decreased by more than 10 percentage points compared with the application draft, and the asset valuation of the AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT (expansion) also decreased by 11 percentage points [81]. - **Tendering and Application Updates**: In August 2025, there were 5 updates on public REITs tendering information. The listed Guotai Junan Chengtou Kuanting Rental - Housing REIT plans to purchase two assets, and the Three Gorges New Energy Dalian Power Generation Co., Ltd. plans to issue public REITs for its Dalian Zhuanghe III Offshore Wind Power Project [85].