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中国稀土(000831):稀土价格企稳回升,公司量增明显
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-01 14:01
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in performance, with a notable increase in sales volume and a rebound in rare earth prices. The revenue for Q1 2025 reached 728 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141% [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a core listed entity of the China Rare Earth Group, benefiting from substantial resource advantages, including exclusive mining rights in Hunan province [3]. - Profitability is on a recovery path, with a gross margin of 9.77% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.46% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 24% year-on-year, primarily due to falling rare earth prices. However, projections for 2025 and beyond indicate a recovery, with expected revenues of 3.47 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.43 billion yuan in 2026 [11][14]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -286.91 million yuan in 2024, but is projected to return to profitability with 285.61 million yuan in 2025 and 502.52 million yuan in 2026 [14][11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 15.75%, with expectations of improvement in subsequent years [15][14]. Sales and Production Insights - The sales volume of rare earth oxides and metals increased significantly in Q1 2025, with respective volumes of 6,512 tons and 1,906 tons, marking year-on-year increases of 80% and 142% [2]. - The company’s mining output reached 2,384 tons, with smelting and separation primarily conducted by its subsidiaries [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized for its unique resource advantages, being the only operator of ion-type rare earth mines in Hunan, and is classified as a "national green mine" [3]. - The company is actively working on exploration and mining efficiency improvements through partnerships, such as with Huaxia Jiyuan [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to benefit from its position within the China Rare Earth Group, with projected net profits of 286 million yuan in 2025, 503 million yuan in 2026, and 765 million yuan in 2027 [4][11].