2025 年 6 月 6 日 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：基本面疲弱，关注中美关税修复的可能性 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | 2507合约（收盘价） | | 60,100 | -980 | -280 | -1,000 | -5,860 | -16,380 | | 2507合约（成交量） | | 244,592 | -168,647 | -143,548 | -25,582 | 130,054 | 234,960 | | 2507合约（持仓量） | | 231,588 | -14,062 | -52,019 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a decline across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3380.82, down 0.68%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10186.45, down 1.62% [2][7] - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a shrinking trading volume and a mixed performance among sectors, with beauty and personal care showing resilience while technology sectors faced declines [9][10] Valuation Metrics - As of the latest data, the Shanghai Composite Index has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.94 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.24, indicating relatively low valuation levels compared to historical averages [3][8] - The ChiNext Index has a significantly higher P/E ratio of 26.75, reflecting a premium valuation for growth-oriented stocks [3][8] Industry Dynamics - The beauty and personal care sector has outperformed others, driven by innovations such as the synthetic production of ergothioneine, which has garnered market interest due to its antioxidant properties [9] - The coal sector has also seen a slight uptick, benefiting from its status as a safe haven amid market volatility [9] Company Updates - Hubei Yihua announced a major asset acquisition, increasing its stake in Yichang New Investment from 35.60% to 75.00%, which will enhance its production capacity across various chemical products [30][31] - DIZHE Pharmaceutical is set to present significant clinical data at upcoming international conferences, highlighting advancements in its blood cancer treatment pipeline [33][34] Economic Indicators - The National Railway Bureau reported a steady increase in passenger and freight volumes, with April seeing a 6.0% year-on-year increase in passenger numbers, indicating robust demand in the transportation sector [29] - The agricultural machinery market's sentiment index fell to 47.9%, signaling a downturn in market conditions, which may impact related industries [23]

化工一季度总结及二季度展望 20250505 摘要 • 2025 年一季度，石化企业成本端显著下降，税费和操作费用控制有效， 业绩下滑幅度小于预期。中游新能化板块大炼化企业受益于产业链开工率 下降，成品油、芳烃及部分烯烃产品供需格局改善。 • 2025 年二季度，OPEC 增产策略及需求端不乐观预期或导致石化产品需 求平淡。OPEC 通过调整增产量进行压力测试，可能导致市场进一步探底， 但预计不会大幅下跌。烯烃价格预计保持坚挺，受益于关税影响和丙烷进 口困难。 • 投资机会集中在上游高股息板块（如三桶油，业绩抗跌且可能提高分红） 以及中下游存在关税修复预期的部分品种（如涤纶长丝、乙烷产品）。 • 基础化工行业春节后出现阶段性错配，一季度氟化工（制冷剂）、农药、 复合肥等行业表现良好。二季度制冷剂进入旺季，磷肥出口政策变化可能 带来业绩修复，复合肥头部企业受益于品牌渠道和量的增长。 • 食品添加剂板块一季度表现亮眼，受益于代糖需求增加和产品结构调整。 三氯蔗糖价格上涨，I3M 有望复制提价模式。宝丰能源一季度业绩创历史 新高，内蒙项目增量逐步释放。 Q&A 2025 年第一季度石化行业的整体表现如何？ 2025 ...