图1：大庆市的磕头机，从地下抽取原油 资料来源：经济 专题：分析师回乡见闻 探寻中国经济多层次发展脉络 作者：申万宏源研究农林牧渔团队 胡静航 儿时，家乡是作文中最常出现的载体，如今，再次写起家乡，离家已十余年。乡音虽已淡薄，但昼夜不 停的磕头机、天空中高耸的烟囱、漫天的飞雪依旧存在着，构成了故乡最美的风景。 观察报，申万宏源研究 源研究 一、新中国石油工业的长子 1959年9月26日松基三井喷出工业油流，恰逢新中国成立十周年之际，故命名为大庆油田，取"大喜大 庆、普天同庆"之意，纪念油田发现与国庆10周年双重盛事。同年，黑龙江省正式设立大庆区，1979 年，国务院批准更名为大庆市。 说起大庆，一定离不开另一个名字，铁人王进喜，也是每一个大庆人从小就熟知的名字。作为新中国第 一代钻井工人，王进喜立下誓言"宁肯少活二十年，拼命也要拿下大油田"。1960年石油大会战启动，王 进喜率队参战来到大庆，无吊车，率队人拉肩扛3天3夜，把钻机运到井场。无水管线，破冰取水，5天4 小时打出会战第一口井。井喷危急时，为保住油井，王进喜不顾腿伤跳进浆池，用身体搅拌水泥3个多 小时，最终成功压制井喷，但身体却被碱性很大的泥浆烧起了 ...

Group 1 - India has made significant progress in trade negotiations, reaching agreements with the EU and the US, marking a major shift in its foreign trade strategy [1] - The agreements involve substantial tariff reductions, with over 90% of bilateral tariffs being cut, and commitments in sectors like automotive and wine, alongside strategic cooperation in defense and technology [1] - India has pledged to procure $500 billion worth of US goods and cease oil purchases from Russia, shifting its imports to the US and Venezuela [1][2] Group 2 - India's commitment to stop purchasing Russian oil will significantly alter the global crude oil trade, as it was previously importing about 40% of its oil from Russia [2] - The shift in oil sourcing will impact India's domestic refining costs, as it transitions from cheaper Russian oil to potentially more expensive US oil or Venezuelan heavy crude [2] - The Indian chemical industry is expected to face cost pressures due to changes in feedstock sourcing, which may affect its competitiveness in export markets [2] Group 3 - The EU's stringent environmental and chemical management standards will likely influence India's industrial standards, necessitating compliance for Indian manufacturers to benefit from tariff reductions [3] - The trade agreements may drive India’s chemical industry towards higher value-added production and innovation, supported by investments from Europe in green energy and advanced materials [3] - The Indian chemical sector is at a critical transformation point, moving from scale-driven growth to value-led and innovation-driven models, influenced by sustainability and digitalization [3] Group 4 - The Indian chemical market is projected to grow from $220 billion in 2023 to between $400 billion and $450 billion by 2030, with potential to reach $850 billion to $1 trillion by 2040 [4] - The growth is driven by increasing per capita consumption of polymers, which is currently low at 15 kg, and geopolitical shifts that position India as a strategic alternative to China [4] - The demand for petrochemical products in India is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8% to 10%, outpacing GDP growth, fueled by urbanization and infrastructure development [4] Group 5 - S&P predicts that under the influence of the trade agreements, India's petrochemical demand will have a compound annual growth rate of 8% over the next decade, potentially surpassing the US to become the second-largest polyethylene market by 2034 [5]

当历史的指针划过"十四五"的刻度，惠州交出了一份令人瞩目的答卷：地区生产总值（GDP）年均增长 6%，位居全省第一。年均增长6%，这对惠州意味着什么？ "十四五"时期我国经济年均增长5.4%，广东省的地区生产总值年均增长率为4.7%，惠州的6%已经超越 了全国全省的平均增速了。这不仅仅是一个经济增速的数字，更是一个城市转型升级的生动注脚，一种 发展路径的战略选择。 A 数字背后的前瞻布局 年均6%的增长速度，对惠州而言，首先意味着发展模式的根本性转变。在房地产行业进入下行通道之 前，惠州展现出难得的战略清醒和行动果决，果断切入以工业为主要支撑的发展轨道。这一前瞻性布 局，为惠州经济稳健增长构筑了坚实底座。 "十四五"期间，惠州规上工业增加值年均增长8.7%，同样位居全省第一。这一数据与GDP增速的协同提 升，揭示了增长的内在逻辑：不是依靠短期刺激或泡沫堆积，而是源于实体经济的扎实根基。 企业梯队建设成效显著，超10亿元企业由2020年的97家增至151家，超百亿企业由10家增至16家。高新 技术企业数量翻番，培育了1110家省级专精特新中小企业、69家国家专精特新"小巨人"企业、28家 （次）制造业单项冠军企 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The aromatics market stopped falling and rebounded, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. The market may further rebound, but short - term observation of market sentiment and inventory changes is needed [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 27, the total inventory of styrene in the mainstream storage areas of East China's Jiangsu Province fluctuated between 94,500 and 123,300 tons. The inventory of major ports in East China was still at a historically low level, and spot liquidity remained tight [1] - As of the week of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.71%, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing up prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The capacity utilization rate of PS was 57.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Although the Nanjing plant resumed production and Guangxi Changke restarted, Lianyungang Petrochemical and Ningbo Liwan each reduced one production line. The industry supply was temporarily stable, the total supply was flat, market shipments were average, and inventory started to rise [1] - The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Manufacturers' supply was still very tight, mainly controlling shipments. After entering January, most of the goods were high - priced. After the Spring Festival, market inquiries increased, trading volume expanded, and prices rebounded. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of UPR was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, remaining stable month - on - month [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The US ADP employment number in January was lower than expected - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The market fluctuated within the day and may further rebound. Attention should be paid to the previous high for upward pressure. Short - term observation of market sentiment and inventory changes is required [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of Huizhou's development is on artificial intelligence and robotics, with significant achievements in the industry, including Shenghong Technology holding the largest global market share in high-density multilayer PCB for graphics cards, Stone Technology aiming for the top global shipment of service robots by 2025, and Desay SV holding the leading position in smart cockpits and intelligent driving in China [1][2][3] Group 2 - Huizhou's industrial layout includes petrochemical energy new materials, electronic information industry, and health industry, with the petrochemical sector being the largest in Guangdong Province, accounting for 25% of refining, 54% of ethylene, 50% of aromatics, and 68% of PTA production capacity in the province [2] - In the electronic information sector, Huizhou has achieved over 100 billion RMB in four sub-sectors: smart terminals, new energy storage, core basic electronics, and ultra-high-definition video, with service robots and smart TVs accounting for 30% of Guangdong's production, lithium batteries for 20%, and smart speakers for 40% [2] Group 3 - Huizhou plans to invest in 199 projects by 2026, with a minimum investment of 20 billion RMB, and aims to enhance connectivity with Shenzhen through infrastructure projects such as highways and railways [2] - The establishment of the Huizhou Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Bureau is planned to target future industrial development, with the creation of Guangdong's first 10,000-card computing power cluster by Runze Group and a top-three global ranking for Xinqiang Electronic's server heat sink [3]

-100 -200 -300 -400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 基差: 混合 - RU主力 ● 2013 ● 2014 ● 2015 ● 2016 ● 2017 据思想出 元 - 2020 · 2021 · 2022 1,000 _ ● 2018 ● 2019 ● 2020 600 = 2023 · 2024 · 2025 · · 2026 2025 - 2026 400 0 200 -1,000 0 -2,000 -200 -3,000 -400 -600 -4,000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 月差:RU:05-09 价差: NR主力 - 美金泰标 唱片受剧 ↓ 2021 ↓ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 ● 2019 ● 2020 ● 2021 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 900 ● 2024 ● 2025 ● 2026 500 - � 2026 400 600 300 200 | 0 -300 -600 - ...

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Insights - US natural gas prices saw a significant increase on January 25, with futures prices reaching $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [1] - EIA forecasts a natural gas average price of $3.46 and $4.59 per million British thermal units for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a downward adjustment in price expectations [2] - Companies involved in the natural gas industry include Sinopec, which engages in the entire value chain from extraction to end supply [3] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with EIA predicting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day in global crude oil supply by 2026 [2] - The average crude oil prices are projected to be $56 and $54 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Sinopec is involved in upstream oil resource development, while Shanghai Petrochemical focuses on refining and production of refined oil products [5][6] Group 3: Petrochemical Industry Insights - Sinopec manufactures basic petrochemical products such as olefins and aromatics, covering multiple segments of the petrochemical value chain [8] - Hengli Petrochemical operates in an integrated refining and petrochemical business model, processing raw materials into manufactured products [8] - Hongchuan Wisdom provides storage and logistics services for petrochemical products, participating in the warehousing and distribution segment of the petrochemical industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical futures market is experiencing strong performance, particularly in the aromatics sector, driven by multiple factors including cost dynamics, improved supply-demand balance, and macroeconomic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical sector shows a strong upward trend, with certain products like PX, PTA, styrene, and pure benzene leading the gains, while others like plastics and methanol have more moderate increases [1]. - The recent extreme cold in North America has triggered a chain reaction in the global energy market, leading to a 63% increase in U.S. HH natural gas prices from January 20 to 22, which has positively impacted the prices of propane and ethane, subsequently boosting domestic chemical products [1]. Group 2: Economic Support - The recovery in domestic economic conditions is providing support for the chemical sector, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for 2025 and a manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% in December, indicating strong recovery momentum [2]. - External factors, such as the temporary suspension of tariffs on eight European countries by the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are enhancing market risk appetite and directing funds towards undervalued sectors like chemicals [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The leading performance of aromatics futures is attributed to the slower growth of aromatics production compared to olefins, with no new PTA capacity expected and only one PX and EB unit coming online in the third quarter [2]. - The relatively modest gains in olefins and coal chemical futures are due to high inventory levels and weak downstream demand for products like plastics and methanol [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of "demand verification" for the sustainability of the current chemical sector rally, noting that if demand falls short post-Spring Festival, it could lead to increased supply and potential imbalances [2][3]. - The ongoing dynamics in the chemical sector will be influenced by the interplay between cost pressures and fundamental demand, with expectations of reduced supply pressure and marginal demand recovery being likely [3].

Core Viewpoint - Liaohe Petrochemical Company is leveraging innovation and lean management to enhance quality and efficiency, achieving a target of 276 million yuan in improvements for 2025, exceeding initial goals [1] Group 1: Top-Level Layout and Resource Potential - The leadership of Liaohe Petrochemical maintains strategic focus and enhances top-level design to explore potential for efficiency improvements [2] - In 2025, the company aims to increase crude oil processing by 115,000 tons, setting a historical record for domestic crude processing [2] - The company has implemented precise strategies for resource allocation, resulting in an additional 810,000 yuan in efficiency gains from optimizing crude oil procurement [2] Group 2: Market Analysis and High-Value Products - Product structure adjustment is crucial for enhancing quality and efficiency, with a focus on producing high-value products [3] - Liaohe Petrochemical successfully produced 170,000 tons of industrial white oil in 2025, increasing market share in high-viscosity industrial white oil [3] - The company adapted to market changes by shifting production to light white oil, generating an efficiency gain of 970,000 yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Cost Control and Efficiency - Liaohe Petrochemical emphasizes energy conservation and cost reduction as key strategies for enhancing competitiveness and sustainability [4] - The company reduced refining energy consumption by 1.57 kg standard oil per ton in 2025, saving significant resources and costs [4] - Comprehensive budget management has been implemented to minimize expenses, achieving a tax reduction of 4.48 million yuan and equipment cost savings of 4.5 million yuan through various measures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has led to significant development in Jieyang, showcasing transformations in various sectors, including industrial growth, urban renewal, cultural heritage preservation, and improvements in public welfare [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Development - The Dannan Sea Petrochemical Industrial Park has transformed from a barren tidal flat into a thriving industrial hub, covering an area of 45.6 square kilometers and attracting over 700 billion yuan in investments [5]. - The park aims to become a "world-class green petrochemical industry base," with the China National Petroleum Corporation's Guangdong Petrochemical project generating over 300 billion yuan in output since its launch in 2023, serving as a key driver for economic growth [5]. - Jieyang has initiated 1,748 industrial investment projects with a total investment of 1,597 billion yuan, focusing on green petrochemicals and marine economy as new pillars, with an expected industrial scale of 6,397 billion yuan by 2025 [6]. Group 2: Cultural and Urban Development - The "Fangyuan Taiji Pavilion" in Xinxing Village has attracted over 500 martial arts students from various countries, exemplifying the promotion of traditional Chinese culture and rural revitalization [9]. - Jieyang has invested 12.6 billion yuan in the preservation and revitalization of its ancient city, completing 29 protective development projects, which has led to a significant increase in tourism, with over 12 million visitors expected by 2025 [11]. - The city has improved its urban infrastructure, with the Chaoshang International Airport upgraded to a 4E-level airport, handling over 10 million passengers annually, and maintaining the highest cargo throughput in Eastern Guangdong [11]. Group 3: Education and Public Welfare - The establishment of Guangdong University of Technology's Jieyang campus has addressed the long-standing lack of higher education resources, fulfilling the local demand for quality education [14]. - Jieyang has implemented various public welfare initiatives, improving healthcare, employment, and social security, with over 100,000 new urban jobs created under the "Million Talents Gather in South Guangdong" initiative [14].