海外产能出清，炼化行业前景展望 20250826 摘要 国内炼化行业面临反内卷政策，重点在于总量控制和结构优化，鼓励 "减油增化"，淘汰老旧小型装置，新建项目需进行减量置换，以实现 产业升级和节能减排目标。 全球石化行业正经历产能清退，尤其在日韩和欧洲，以应对周期性低谷 和环保压力。韩国计划削减 270-370 万吨石化产能，欧洲预计到 2026/2027 年清退约 300 万吨乙烯产能，这将影响全球供应链和中间 原料价格。 8 月 30 日是地方政府完成企业和装置排查的关键节点，之后工信部将发 布淘汰标准，预计 20 年以上且规模小于 200 万吨的炼油装置和小于 50 万吨的乙烯装置可能被列入淘汰清单。 炼油行业将淘汰 200 万吨以下小型装置，新建项目需达 1,000 万吨以上 规模。乙烯行业面临淘汰或整合小于 50 万吨的老旧装置的压力，新建 乙烯项目审批严格，轻质化路线更受青睐。 老旧设备淘汰与改造利好一体化大型央企及民营沿海炼化企业，并带动 节能降碳、智能制造相关产业发展，如反应器、换热器、炉管及数字化 工艺等。 Q&A 当前炼化行业的盈利情况如何？ 目前炼化行业的盈利处于过去十七八年中的最低点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in profitability in the second quarter, indicating challenges in the refining and petrochemical industry due to falling oil prices and product prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 103.9 billion yuan in 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 8% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.05 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of 0.43 yuan, aligning with performance forecasts - In 2Q25, net profit attributable to shareholders was 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 47% [1] - The company received government subsidies of 800 million yuan in 1H25, an increase of 230 million yuan year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 2.3 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year [1] - Inventory impairment losses amounted to 790 million yuan, primarily due to falling oil and refining product prices [1] - Operating cash flow increased by 55% year-on-year to 19.5 billion yuan [1] Industry Trends - The refining sector experienced a decline in profitability in 2Q25, attributed to a 9 USD/barrel decrease in crude oil prices, impacting raw material inventory for refining companies [2] - Aromatics profitability decreased, with the PX price spread down 40% year-on-year to 192 USD/ton, and pure benzene price spread down 49% quarter-on-quarter to 201 USD/ton, driven by weak oil prices and increased production from refineries [2] - PTA margins remained low, with gross profit of 1.1 billion yuan in 1H25, maintaining a unit gross profit of 134 yuan/ton [2] - The company’s new materials project in Nantong has begun trial production, with full production expected by August, leading to a reduction in capital expenditure to 3.8 billion yuan in 1H25, down 30% year-on-year [2] Cost Management - Coal prices decreased by 20% year-on-year to 567 yuan/ton in 1H25, with the company consuming approximately 18 million tons of coal annually; a 100-150 yuan/ton drop in coal prices could save costs by 1.8-2.7 billion yuan [2] Market Outlook - The trend of reducing inefficient capacity is expected to enhance the value of existing assets, with China planning to eliminate smaller, outdated refining facilities and South Korea restructuring its petrochemical industry with a 25% reduction in production [3] - The slowdown in new refining capacity under the anti-involution trend may lead to a recovery in the share of quality capacity and an improvement in olefin profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the weakened profitability in aromatics, the company has lowered its 2025 net profit forecast by 8% to 6.76 billion yuan, while maintaining the 2026 profit forecast [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 18x for 2025 and 16x for 2026, with an 11% increase in the target price to 17.8 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 4.1% from the current stock price [4]

转自：北京日报客户端 记者22日从中国海油获悉，国家石化产业规划布局项目——大榭石化炼化一体化项目在宁波全面建成， 标志着我国规模最大的石化产业基地新增项目建造完成，基地烯烃总产能突破1000万吨，高端化工材料 自主可控能力取得新进展。 我国规模最大的石化产业基地 新增项目建造完成 大榭石化炼化一体化项目包括18套大型炼油、化工装置，主要生产广泛用于新能源汽车、电子行业的聚 丙烯等高端化工用品，总投资达210亿元。项目于2022年7月开工建设，建设团队采用自主研发的新型施 工技术，使工期缩短了90天，刷新了国内两器吊装工期最短纪录。 中国海油大榭石化生产技术部经理黄应禧：在项目建设过程中，因核心设备反应器、再生器的封头直径 为国内最长，项目团队首创"仰脸衬里施工技术"，将直径21米、重1145吨的巨型钢铁碗先翻身吊装至25 米高空，再由施工人员钻进两器内部进行"仰脸"衬里施工。 项目主要采用我国海洋开采的中轻质原油，进口原油作为补充。生产上采用"深度催化裂解"的全套方 案，重点往化工下游产业拓展。投产后，每年能加工原油1200万吨，还能生产百万吨级的烯烃、芳烃。 技术突破 建成全国最大重质油制烯烃基地 大榭石 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 中国石化（600028） 证券研究报告 油价下行导致业绩短期承压，"反内卷"或扭转局面 2025H1 业绩因多方面因素承压明显 2025H1 公司实现收入 14090.5 亿，同比-10.6%，归母净利润 214.8 亿，同 比-39.8%，主要是因为油价走低，库存减利，国内汽柴油销量和价差均下 行，航煤、芳烃等产品毛利下滑。 或因减油增化趋势，化工板块受产能集中投放、芳烃等产品盈利下滑、装 置集中检修等因素，上半年经营亏损 42 亿元，同比增亏 11 亿。后续我们 预计"反内卷"政策红利或扭转化工亏损局面。 面临成品油达峰问题，销量下滑明显 由于国内成品油需求达峰问题较为严峻，营销板块汽柴煤油销量同比分别 -4.9%/-6.8%/-8.4%，实现价格分别-6.4%/-8.2%/12.7%，营销板块收益 80 亿， 同比-67 亿（同比-45.7%）。 资本开支继续放缓，利好长期盈利和现金流能力 公司计划下调全年资本开支 5%左右，或利好长期盈利和现金流能力。 2025H1 资本开支 438 亿（同比-14%），其中上游/炼油/化工/销售分别 276/55/73/28 亿，主要炼油/ ...

化工 战略看多石化行业反内卷 20250821 摘要 中国石化行业正经历从"能耗双控"向"碳双控"的政策转变，对炼化 和乙烯等高耗能行业提出更严格的能耗标准，加速行业结构调整。 行业老旧装置面临加速淘汰，以 20 年为限，炼油产能占比约 32%，乙 烯产能占比约 17%，200 万吨以下炼油装置占全国总产能 6.5%，30 万吨以下乙烯装置占比 15%。 石化市场整体处于宽松底部震荡，产品价差和龙头企业盈利能力具备安 全边际，海外炼油产能因高油价和绿色转型而逐步退出，为国内企业带 来修复机会。 欧洲和日本炼厂面临高油价和运营压力，逐步退出市场，预计 2024 年 至 2027 年底欧洲将退出约 400-500 万吨乙烯产能，日本也将退出部分 产能，影响全球石化格局。 石化行业面临破产和整合风险，部分企业如英力士、壳牌欧洲等面临经 营压力，韩国石化行业寻求自救，老旧产能被新增产能取代，芳烃领域 新增项目审批严格。 油价回调至约 65 美元/桶，前期高油价风险释放，OPEC 增产和美国页 岩油成本支撑油价，为石化产业链布局提供时间窗口。 建议关注恒力石化、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、桐昆股份等炼油企业，以及 宝丰能源和卫 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical's stock price experienced a decline, reflecting challenges in the petrochemical industry and a forecasted drop in profits for the first half of 2025 [1] Company Overview - Hengli Petrochemical's main business includes the production and sales of refining, aromatics, and olefins, establishing a complete industrial chain from crude oil to new chemical materials [1] - The company focuses on the consumer market and new materials, aiming to build an integrated chemical enterprise [1] Financial Performance - The company disclosed an earnings forecast on August 18, predicting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 24.09% [1] - The forecasted net profit excluding non-recurring items is 2.296 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 35.18% [1] - The announcement indicated that the petrochemical industry's demand continues to show weak recovery, with significant downturns in the aromatics and oil products industry chain [1] Market Activity - On August 19, the stock closed at 15.01 yuan, down 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 187,740 hands and a transaction amount of 283 million yuan [1] - The intraday stock price fluctuated between 15.00 yuan and 15.28 yuan, with an amplitude of 1.85% [1] - On the same day, there was a net outflow of 2.2882 million yuan in main funds, with a cumulative net outflow of 70.7956 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The global petrochemical industry is entering an upward cycle due to significant supply-side adjustments, particularly in Europe, where major producers are exiting the market [1][2][3] - European petrochemical capacity is set to decrease by 11 million tons in 2024 and an additional 5.7 million tons of ethylene capacity in the first half of 2025, representing over 25% of total capacity [1][2] - The EU's trade deficit in petrochemical products has expanded, with a deficit of €20 billion with China and €33 billion with the US, primarily due to collapsing end-demand [1][2] Regional Insights Europe - The capacity utilization rate in Europe has dropped from 82% in 2020 to 74% in 2023 due to various factors, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - Despite economic stimulus policies, major petrochemical companies are firmly exiting the market, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity [2][3] United States - The US experienced a significant increase in ethylene capacity due to the shale revolution, adding 16 million tons from 2016 to 2024 [2][4] - However, profitability has declined since the peak in 2021, with losses expected in 2024 and Q1 2025 due to high investment costs and low ethylene prices [4] - New production in the US is nearing completion, with only Chevron Phillips planning to launch a 2.08 million ton facility in 2026 [4] Japan and South Korea - The petrochemical industry in Japan and South Korea is currently in a plateau phase, with no significant changes in capacity but a drastic drop in operating rates (70%-80% in South Korea and around 60% in Japan) [5] - Both countries are facing challenges and may consider asset sales or consolidation, although government support aims to slow down the exit from the market [5] Capacity Trends - Global ethylene capacity growth is expected to decline from an average of 4.73 million tons per year from 2016 to 2023 to approximately 2 million tons per year from 2025 to 2028 [6][7] - Refining capacity growth has also decreased, with projections dropping from 1 million barrels per year to around 400,000 barrels in the coming years [6][7] Market Impacts - The exit of European capacity is already affecting global markets, with price fluctuations in TDI and increases in prices for companies like Qixiang Tengda and Yuxin Dingtong [3][8] - The slowdown in US production and the potential for Japan and South Korea to follow Europe's lead in capacity reduction are contributing to an overall decline in the growth rate of the global petrochemical industry [7][8] Domestic Responses - Domestic private refining companies in China are adapting to declining demand for refined oil by reducing the proportion of refined oil and increasing the production of high-value-added products like olefins and aromatics [9] - Strict control of consumption tax in China is helping to reduce tax evasion, benefiting compliant companies like Sinopec, Rongsheng, and Hengli [9] Future Outlook - The price of naphtha, a key raw material for olefins and aromatics, has been strengthening since the second half of 2024, with expectations for continued support from high downstream chemical demand [10][11] - The long-term outlook for by-product markets, including naphtha, petroleum coke, and sulfur, is positive, with anticipated price strength benefiting related companies [12]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, it will maintain a stockpiling state but the absolute inventory level is not high. The current low processing fee for spot has lasted for some time. With limited inventory pressure on filament and continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade polyester at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term stockpiling pressure is not high, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The situation is good and the profit is not low. In the long term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rate, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side. It should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellites [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the futures market is still in a low range, attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Summary by Category PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of crude oil fluctuated between 69.7 - 73.2, the price of PX CFR changed from 851 to 846, and the PTA processing margin decreased from 272.0 to 242.0 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 - million - ton plant reduced its operation rate to 80% - 90%, and Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. - **Market Situation**: The operation rate of proximal TA existing plants decreased significantly while new plants started production. The polyester operation rate declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weakly maintained, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic operation rate of PX increased slightly, there were some unexpected situations overseas, the PXN weakened significantly, the profitability of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the MEG outer - market price decreased from 528 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 684 to 506 [4]. - **Device Changes**: The 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Tongliao stopped production; the 400,000 - ton plant of Xinjiang Guanghui restarted; the 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Zhonghuaxue restarted [4]. - **Market Situation**: Proximal domestic coal - based plants had some maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly. Affected by the weather during the week, both port arrivals and pick - ups decreased significantly, and the port inventory still decreased slightly. The downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from the high level [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6675 to 6600, and the short - fiber profit increased from 47 to 21 [4]. - **Device Changes**: The small - line plant of Xianglu was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The operation rate of polyester yarn remained stable, the raw material stocking decreased, the finished product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [4]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1800 to 1720, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14665 to 13910 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the absolute level was not high, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 751 to 764, and the styrene domestic profit decreased from - 147 to - 218 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of PS (East China transparent benzene) and ABS (0215A) remained stable at 7830 and 10000 respectively, and the Asian price difference (pure benzene - naphtha) decreased from 160 to 138 [6].

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry in China is facing structural overcapacity challenges due to peak demand and declining refined oil needs, leading to excess refining capacity and overproduction of chemicals like ethylene and aromatics [1] - The average profit percentile for major chemical products in the first half of 2025 is expected to be below 50%, with PDH profits dropping to a historical low of 0% [1] - The industry needs to eliminate outdated capacity and tighten new project approvals to achieve high-quality transformation [1] Group 2 - The refining sector is experiencing peak demand and decline in refined oil, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, rather than just controlling new capacity [2] - The ethylene sector is facing overcapacity due to new oil conversion capacities and requires control over new capacity and project approvals, as well as the elimination of small projects that do not meet energy and carbon standards [2] - Unlike coal, which may not have absolute overcapacity but requires control over operating rates, the petrochemical sector is experiencing overcapacity that necessitates capacity reduction and new project approval controls [2]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is facing a significant challenge due to the peak and decline in demand for refined oil products, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, rather than merely controlling new capacity [2][21] - The ethylene sector is experiencing overcapacity due to a large influx of new oil conversion capacity, which requires controlling new capacity and tightening project approvals during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][21] - The average profit margins for major chemical products in the first half of 2025 are expected to be below 50% historical percentiles, indicating a challenging profitability environment [12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2015 Petrochemical Supply-Side Reform Policies - The State Council issued guidelines to strictly control new capacity in basic chemical products and to manage the construction of new refining and ethylene projects [9] 2. Achievements of Petrochemical Supply-Side Reform - China's refining capacity has grown moderately, with no significant oversupply until 2024, but a peak in refined oil demand is anticipated [10] 3. The Environment Facing the Petrochemical Industry in 2025 - Significant increases in production capacity for major petrochemical products have been observed, with ethylene self-sufficiency rising from 57% in 2020 to 76% in 2024 [15] 4. Possible Measures for "Anti-Internal Competition" - The petrochemical industry must focus on leading sectors such as refining and ethylene capacity, with a need for capacity elimination and project approval control [21]