Core Viewpoint - June export data shows strong resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, exceeding expectations and remaining consistent with the cumulative growth of 6.0% over the previous five months, indicating no signs of slowdown as of June [1][5][6] Group 1: Export Performance - The strong performance in June is likely attributed to the "tariff easing effect," where the US has removed 91% of additional tariffs on Chinese goods and suspended 24% of tariffs for 90 days as of May 14, 2025 [1][5][6] - The US manufacturing PMI for imports showed a recovery from a low of 39.9 in May to 47.4 in June, aligning with improved export growth in China and South Korea [6][7] - Exports to the EU acted as a stabilizer, while ASEAN and Africa served as accelerators, with exports to the US declining at a slower rate in June compared to April and May [2][7] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - In April, exports to the US saw a significant drop of -21%, but exports to Europe were slightly better than the overall average, while exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America maintained high growth rates of around 20% [2][7] - By June, exports to the US decreased by -16.1%, while exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, and exports to ASEAN and Africa continued to show strong growth [8] Group 3: Product Categories - High-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, ships, and integrated circuits are leading China's export growth, with automotive and ship exports growing at 23.1% and 23.6% respectively [3][8] - Labor-intensive products continue to show low growth, with textiles, bags, and clothing combined showing a -1.0% year-on-year growth, while toys saw a temporary spike of 8.1% due to tariff easing [3][8] - Electronic products displayed a mixed trend, with integrated circuits growing at 24.2%, while mobile phones and data processing equipment continued to decline [3][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The mid-term report suggests potential export slowdown due to expected economic deceleration in Europe and the US, as well as stricter origin rules in Southeast Asia [4][10] - Projections for the third quarter indicate a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.98%, while the fourth quarter may see a decline to around 2.96%, leading to an overall growth of about 4.43% for the second half of the year [4][11] - Recent credit and social financing data for June also showed positive trends, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, indicating supportive conditions for market risk appetite [4][11]