Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July 30 meeting of the Central Political Bureau, emphasizing the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic challenges [2][3]. Economic Performance - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, exceeding the annual target [2][3]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining awareness of potential risks and challenges, despite the positive economic indicators [2]. Policy Direction - The meeting stressed the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that new policies may be quickly implemented in response to economic fluctuations [3][4]. - There is a focus on promoting domestic demand and the dual circulation strategy, with an emphasis on stabilizing internal demand after a period of "grabbing exports" [3]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments, particularly supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth [4]. - Fiscal policies will continue to prioritize the acceleration of government bond issuance and the effective use of funds, with a noted progress of 50.6% in new special bond issuance as of July 13 [4]. - The monetary policy will focus on reducing the overall financing costs for society, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy tools [4][6]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting highlighted the importance of fostering service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, with a strong emphasis on "high-quality" investments [5][7]. - There is a commitment to improving consumer demand through policies that enhance living standards and expand consumption, particularly in the service sector [6]. - The meeting reiterated the need to prevent the emergence of hidden debts while promoting high-quality urban renewal and infrastructure projects [7]. Conclusion - The overall message from the meeting indicates a proactive approach to economic management, with a focus on sustaining growth through strategic policy implementation and addressing potential risks in the economic landscape [2][4][5].

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 "十五五"启幕，蓝图绘新篇 ——7 月中央政治局会议学习理解 事件：7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经 济形势和经济工作，中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 ⚫ 下一步政策如何定？"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性" 7 月中央政治局会议开篇聚焦"十五五"长期规划，决定 10 月召开二十届四中全会。会 议强调"十五五"时期要"确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展"。同时，考虑到 2029 年三中全会部署的改革任务要全部完成，2030 年我国要实现"碳达峰"目标。"十 五五"规划或与经济高质量发展、关键制度改革和绿色转型等深度绑定。 会议对上半年经济表现高度肯定，总结为 "我国经济展现强大活力和韧性"；风险挑战方 面，会议删除 "外部冲击影响加大" 的表述，但仍强调 "增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维"。 上半年 GDP 实际增速达 5.3%，高于全年目标，这在美 "对等关税" 冲击下实现的经 济表现，充分体现出我国经济的强韧程度。同时，会议对下半年风险挑战仍高度关注。 上半年经济超预期表现未令政策放松警惕，会议提出 ...