Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released the "2024 Global Critical Minerals Outlook" report, highlighting increasing risks of supply disruptions in critical minerals despite current market supply seeming adequate and prices having significantly decreased from 2021 and 2022 highs [1] - The report emphasizes that the market concentration of critical minerals is rising, particularly in refining and processing stages, with the top three producers' average market share increasing from approximately 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024 [1] - IEA Director Fatih Birol stated that critical minerals have become a frontline issue for global energy and economic security amid heightened geopolitical tensions [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for key energy minerals has surged, with lithium demand projected to grow nearly 30% in 2024, significantly higher than the 10% annual growth rate of the 2010s [5] - Despite strong demand, supply growth, particularly from China, Indonesia, and parts of Africa, has exerted downward pressure on prices, especially for battery metals, which have seen supply growth rates double compared to the late 2010s [5] - The report warns of potential supply-demand imbalances over the next decade, with mineral investment momentum weakening; related spending is expected to grow only 5% in 2024, down from 14% in 2023 [5] Risks and Challenges - The copper market faces significant risks, with demand expected to surge due to accelerated grid construction, yet current copper mining projects indicate a potential supply gap of 30% by 2035 [5] - Export restrictions are increasingly impacting supply security, with 55% of the strategic minerals analyzed facing some form of export control, which is expanding to include raw materials, refined products, and processing technologies [5][6] - The report also analyzed 20 strategic minerals, revealing that while some may have smaller market sizes, disruptions could lead to substantial economic impacts, with China being the primary refining country for 19 of these minerals, holding an average market share of about 70% [6]