对于多家美国智库近些年陆续发布的针对台海局势的兵棋推演（wargame），笔者一直兴趣不大。原因在于这些智库里那些在其母国土生土长的所谓中国问 题专家，对于现代中国的政治、经济、军事以及中国历史、国共历史、台湾问题由来等基础性知识的储备太薄弱了。基础不牢，发布的报告就漏洞百出。 12月2日，日本媒体《President Online》在其报道中引述了这份报告。报道特别指出，战国中心设想了24种（场）战役模式，结果美、日、台联盟赢了22 场。中国只在两种情况下赢得战役，一种是"美国未对台湾有事进行军事干预"，一种是"日本采取中立立场，不允许美军使用基地"。 这篇日本媒体的报道迅速被多家台湾媒体转发和评论。 日本媒体和台湾媒体的一唱一和，是在为日本首相高市早苗有关"台湾有事"的错误言论加油打气。问题是，战国中心的这份报告，确实是一盘冷饭，炒不热 的。 因为这家智库2023年、2024年、2025年连续三年发布了关于台海冲突的兵棋推演，其中2024年推演的是核武器（核威慑），2025年推演的是围困。 结合其他美国智库的表现，笔者大致点评如下： 第一，面对台湾（问题），美国智库的学者普遍有一种圣母和救世主心态。 这种 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements in military simulation technology, particularly the development of a strategic wargaming system at the National Defense University, emphasizing the importance of integrating modern technology into military training and operations [2][3]. Group 1: Development of Wargaming Systems - The wargaming system is described as a crucial tool for simulating warfare, referred to as the "0.999th war," which helps military leaders understand modern battlefields [3]. - The first large-scale computer wargaming system was initiated at the National Defense University, leading to the successful development of the military's first strategic wargaming system [3][6]. - The transition of the wargaming system from the laboratory to practical military exercises marked a significant improvement in its usability and effectiveness [3][6]. Group 2: Leadership and Team Development - Wu Lin, a key figure in the wargaming team, emphasizes the need for continuous innovation and adaptation in wargaming technology to keep pace with modern warfare complexities [3][6]. - The team has expanded from fewer than 10 members to nearly 1,000 experts, showcasing a collaborative effort to enhance military training capabilities [8]. - Wu Lin's leadership style focuses on nurturing talent and empowering younger team members, leading to significant advancements in wargaming technology [7][8]. Group 3: Practical Applications and Challenges - The wargaming system was tested during a major military exercise, where the team faced tight deadlines and technical challenges, ultimately succeeding in simulating modern information warfare [5][6]. - Continuous feedback from military personnel during exercises has led to iterative improvements in the wargaming system, ensuring it meets the evolving needs of the military [6]. - The article illustrates a specific instance where the wargaming simulation provided unexpected insights, demonstrating its effectiveness in training and strategy development [6].