（CFP） 他表示，上述推演可能是非机密领域中最详细的战争推演。反观中国，多年来没有大规模使用过武力， 这是一个大国非凡的克制水平。 戈德斯坦引用美国战略与国际问题研究中心一份名为《下一场战争的第一场战役》的报告指出，在大约 40次针对台海局势的兵棋推演中，美国几乎在所有情况下都会在第一周内损失两个前沿部署的航母战斗 群，而战争可能会持续数年。 资料图 转自：扬子晚报 据@CCTV国际时讯 消息，近期，美国布朗大学高级研究员戈德斯坦在美国纽约举行的一场论坛上表 示，如果美国武力介入台湾问题，可能引发持续数年的战争并导致美国数十万人死亡，这并不符合其国 家利益。 "如果我们过度关注台湾以及这种日益军事化的对抗，我们将无法与中国合作应对气候变化、解决全球 发展优先事项，比如基础设施建设等。"戈德斯坦认为，美国应把更多的注意力放在本国的民生建设 上，而不是一味在军事上加大投入。 据悉，本月11日，美日启动最大规模"铁拳" 联合军演，预计将持续到3月9日。 有分析指出，本次演习的目的就是要封锁第一岛链，且距离台湾这么近，介入台海局势的企图明显。 来源：长安街知事 据央广军事援引美国军方的报道，上述演习的规模和范围均超 ...

（来源：今晚报） 转自：今晚报 【#美国日本春节想针对台海搞事#放弃幻想，提高警惕！】据央视2月16日报道，2月11日至3月9日，美 日在冲绳及周边岛屿展开联合军演，代号"铁拳"。有外媒声称，此次军演意在针对中国，特别是针对中 国在台海区域的活动。中国社科院台研所研究员谢楠表示："毫不讳言地讲，这就是对着我们来的。从 它们在选择演习的时间、地点、武器装备以及科目，美日是在实实在在地针对'台海有事可能就是日本 有事'，在做相应的准备。"（央视《海峡两岸》《防务新观察》） #解放军位南海海域进行战备警巡## 被王毅痛斥后日本急了# ...

转自：今晚报 （来源：今晚报） 【央视：#春节期间美日还想针对台海搞事##美国日本春节想针对台海搞事# 放弃幻想，提高警惕！ 】 据央视2月16日报道，2月11日至3月9日，美日在冲绳及周边岛屿展开联合军演，代号"铁拳"。有外媒声 称，此次军演意在针对中国，特别是针对中国在台海区域的活动。中国社科院台研所研究员谢楠表 示："毫不讳言地讲，这就是对着我们来的。从它们在选择演习的时间、地点、武器装备以及科目，美 日是在实实在在地针对'台海有事可能就是日本有事'，在做相应的准备。"（北京日报） ...

国台办发言人朱凤莲表示，春节是中华民族最重要的传统节日，民进党当局如果胆敢在祥和的节日里挑 起事端，必须承担由此引发的一切恶果。 在国务院台办11日举行的例行新闻发布会上，有记者问：近日，台海巡部门宣称，将于春节期间开展所 谓"安全维护工作"，动员各式舰船艇预置应处大陆灰色地带侵扰。对此有何评论？ ...

Group 1 - The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, Zhang Xiaogang, criticized certain media for speculating on the PLA's actions regarding Taiwan, stating that such actions only serve to create "war anxiety" and undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait [1][2] - Reports indicate that PLA aircraft have conducted nearly 3,600 sorties around Taiwan this year, marking a record high, and the PLA has executed 39 joint combat readiness patrols [1] - Zhang emphasized that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, and the PLA's military exercises around the island are legitimate actions to maintain national sovereignty and territorial integrity [1] Group 2 - The spokesperson reiterated that the Taiwan issue is an internal matter for China and should not be interfered with by external forces, expressing a willingness to seek peaceful reunification while reserving the right to use force if necessary [2] - Zhang warned that if the "Taiwan independence" forces provoke or cross red lines, the PLA would have to take decisive measures, asserting that the military is always ready for combat and confident in defeating any separatist or foreign interference attempts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of National Defense emphasizes that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is always ready for combat and will decisively defeat any attempts of "Taiwan independence" and foreign interference [2]. Group 1 - The spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense, Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, criticized certain media for speculating on PLA actions, claiming it undermines peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait [2]. - The Chinese government expresses a willingness to pursue peaceful reunification with Taiwan but does not rule out the use of force if provoked by "Taiwan independence" forces [2]. - The PLA is described as being in a state of constant readiness, prepared to engage in combat at any time, and confident in achieving victory [2].

Group 1 - Japan feels frustrated with the insufficient public support from the US for Prime Minister Kishi's comments regarding Taiwan, urging for more explicit backing from the Trump administration [1][12][15] - Following a diplomatic dispute between China and Japan, the US has expressed limited support, with only a statement from the US Ambassador to Japan, while other forms of public backing have been absent [1][5][16] - Reports indicate that the US has paused plans to impose sanctions on China related to alleged cyberattacks to maintain the trade truce established in late October [1][13] Group 2 - US officials have indicated that there will be no new significant export controls on China after the recent summit, aiming to avoid disrupting the improving US-China relations [2][13] - Despite the lack of public support from the US, Japan does not believe that the US will waver in its commitment to Japan, although disappointment over the absence of high-level backing persists [4][15] - Former US officials argue that the US should have welcomed Kishi's statements about Japan's potential support in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, highlighting the irony of the current lack of support [4][5][15] Group 3 - Japan's Defense Ministry reported that Chinese naval activities, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier's operations, have led to increased tensions, with Japan claiming radar lock incidents involving its aircraft [8][19] - The Chinese military has responded to Japan's claims, asserting that their training exercises were conducted within designated areas and accusing Japan of misrepresenting the situation [11][23] - The ongoing tensions have prompted China to issue travel warnings and suspend imports of Japanese seafood, which some Japanese media view as retaliatory measures [7][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the recent wargaming reports by American think tanks regarding the Taiwan Strait situation, arguing that the foundational knowledge of these experts about modern China is insufficient, leading to flawed conclusions [2][4]. Group 1: Wargaming Reports - The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report in January 2023 titled "The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan," which outlined 24 battle scenarios, with the US, Japan, and Taiwan winning in 22 of them [4][5]. - The report has been widely circulated and commented on by Japanese and Taiwanese media, indicating a coordinated narrative supporting Japanese Prime Minister's statements on Taiwan [6][7]. - CSIS has conducted wargaming exercises for three consecutive years, with different focuses each year: nuclear deterrence in 2024 and blockade scenarios in 2025, totaling 65 scenarios across all years [8][11][12]. Group 2: American Think Tanks' Perspectives - Analysts from American think tanks exhibit a "savior complex" regarding Taiwan, influenced by historical, political, and financial factors, leading to a biased perspective [9]. - The reports acknowledge the significant military and economic disparity between Taiwan and China, emphasizing that Taiwan cannot face China alone and requires US assistance to maintain its democratic system [10]. - The wargaming exercises are criticized for their limited practical military value, as they primarily serve as a basis for future propaganda rather than actionable strategies [14][15]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions - American think tanks have suggested two main responses to potential Chinese military actions: military intervention and economic sanctions, though the latter is seen as beyond their expertise [17][19]. - A new approach introduced by CSIS includes diplomatic mediation, suggesting that the US should provide China with a way to save face, such as allowing international observers in Taiwan's customs and reiterating the "1992 Consensus" [20][22]. - The article argues that ultimately, China's strategy regarding Taiwan will not be significantly influenced by American interventions, rendering the think tanks' wargaming efforts largely ineffective [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing military pressure from mainland China on Taiwan and the notably muted response from Japan, highlighting a shift in Japan's stance due to economic and security concerns [1][4][15]. Military Dynamics - Mainland China's military activities have escalated, showcasing a "systematic suppression" approach rather than mere reconnaissance, which significantly increases pressure on Taiwan [4][18]. - The recent military maneuvers include the involvement of advanced aircraft, indicating a comprehensive capability demonstration [4]. Japan's Response - Japan's previous strong statements regarding Taiwan have been replaced by a notable silence, reflecting a shift in priorities towards its own economic and security interests [6][15]. - The Japanese government has taken steps to clarify its position with China, indicating a desire to avoid further escalation [13]. Economic Implications - The potential decline in Chinese tourists and students could have a significant negative impact on Japan's economy, particularly in sectors like aviation, retail, and services [8][11]. - Japan's economic recovery is fragile, and any disruption from reduced Chinese engagement could lead to a chain reaction affecting various industries [11]. Political Context - The article suggests that some Taiwanese political figures have relied on Japan's support as a deterrent against mainland China, but Japan's recent actions reveal a more self-preserving approach [15][18]. - The dynamics of the Taiwan Strait are shifting, with Japan's focus on its own safety and economic stability taking precedence over its commitments to Taiwan [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights escalating tensions between China and Japan regarding the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing China's strong military stance against any Japanese intervention [1]. Group 1: Military and Political Statements - On November 13, the Chinese military's official account warned that any Japanese military intervention in the Taiwan Strait would be met with a decisive response from China [1]. - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that potential Chinese military action against Taiwan could pose an existential crisis for Japan, affirming that his comments align with the Japanese government's position [1]. - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated that any Japanese military intervention would be considered an act of aggression, asserting China's right to self-defense under international law [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Warnings - The Chinese government urged Japan to reflect on its historical responsibilities and cease interference in China's internal affairs, warning against provocative actions regarding Taiwan [1]. - The statement from the Chinese military emphasizes the potential consequences of Japan's involvement in the Taiwan issue, suggesting that those who "play with fire" will face dire repercussions [1].