然而，政策正常化必须审慎。高田创特别强调，缩减国债购买规模应放慢速度，并指出央行"正处于应 就资产负债表规模进行审议的阶段"。他警告，超长期日本国债面临投资需求疲软，若市场出现剧烈波 动，"日本国债市场存在功能恶化甚至失灵的风险"。 日本央行审议委员高田创（Soichiro Takata）26日明确表示："人们普遍认识到日本经济已不再处于通缩 状态"，并强调"对重回通缩的担忧已消除"。 高田创表示，"摆脱通缩的路径终于成形"，当前薪资上涨势头正由国内结构性因素推动，而非仅依赖海 外成本传导。"我期望日本这次能够迎来'真正的黎明'；换句话说，'这次不一样了'。"他呼吁央行在沟 通中应基于"物价稳定目标已接近实现"的前提，逐步调整政策叙事。 在货币政策操作上，高田创主张以渐进方式进一步加息。他透露自己曾在1月会议上提议加息，理由 是"日本的实际短期利率仍显著为负"，即便在2025年12月加息后亦如此，且远低于海外水平。他警告， 若2026年起全球进入复苏与加息周期，日本央行存在"无意中落后于形势的风险"。 为此，他提出极端情况下可考虑"灵活应对措施"，凸显其对市场稳定的高度重视。他要求央行在6月对 购债计划进行中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as Japan's new Prime Minister marks a new phase for the struggling Japanese economy, which is now facing new challenges. The government's macroeconomic policy aims to stimulate consumption and investment while controlling inflation through a combination of tax cuts and cautious interest rate hikes [1]. Fiscal Policy - Kishi Sanae's government inherits the expansionary fiscal policy tradition of Abenomics, emphasizing macroeconomic intervention to address structural stagnation. The government plans to implement expansionary fiscal policies, maintain loose monetary policies, and pursue structural reforms [2]. - The fiscal policy focuses on three main areas: controlling inflation, investing in growth industries, and enhancing national security. Plans include lowering fuel taxes, increasing personal income tax exemptions, and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises [2]. - The government aims to boost investment in sectors such as semiconductors, AI, quantum technology, aerospace, advanced healthcare, and advanced manufacturing to drive economic recovery through technological innovation [2]. Monetary Policy - Kishi Sanae's government intends to maintain a loose monetary policy to prevent rising financing costs from hindering economic recovery. However, the approach is more cautious compared to the previous administration's extreme monetary easing [4]. - The primary goal of the current monetary policy is to maintain a stable financial environment while using expansionary fiscal policies to stimulate demand and promote innovation [4][6]. - Kishi Sanae has previously expressed skepticism about raising interest rates, attributing current inflation primarily to rising raw material costs rather than domestic economic growth [5]. Economic Challenges - Japan's economy is at a critical juncture, facing the challenge of balancing inflation control, economic growth, and government debt crisis prevention. This balance will test Kishi Sanae's macroeconomic policies [7]. - The government debt has reached a record high of 1,323.72 trillion yen, increasing by 26.55 trillion yen from the previous fiscal year. This raises concerns about potential debt crises if fiscal expansion continues [8]. - The core consumer price index (CPI) has been rising for 48 consecutive months, with inflation exceeding 3% since January. This situation necessitates prioritizing inflation control while managing the risks associated with high government debt [9].