然而，政策正常化必须审慎。高田创特别强调，缩减国债购买规模应放慢速度，并指出央行"正处于应 就资产负债表规模进行审议的阶段"。他警告，超长期日本国债面临投资需求疲软，若市场出现剧烈波 动，"日本国债市场存在功能恶化甚至失灵的风险"。 日本央行审议委员高田创（Soichiro Takata）26日明确表示："人们普遍认识到日本经济已不再处于通缩 状态"，并强调"对重回通缩的担忧已消除"。 高田创表示，"摆脱通缩的路径终于成形"，当前薪资上涨势头正由国内结构性因素推动，而非仅依赖海 外成本传导。"我期望日本这次能够迎来'真正的黎明'；换句话说，'这次不一样了'。"他呼吁央行在沟 通中应基于"物价稳定目标已接近实现"的前提，逐步调整政策叙事。 在货币政策操作上，高田创主张以渐进方式进一步加息。他透露自己曾在1月会议上提议加息，理由 是"日本的实际短期利率仍显著为负"，即便在2025年12月加息后亦如此，且远低于海外水平。他警告， 若2026年起全球进入复苏与加息周期，日本央行存在"无意中落后于形势的风险"。 为此，他提出极端情况下可考虑"灵活应对措施"，凸显其对市场稳定的高度重视。他要求央行在6月对 购债计划进行中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% while raising inflation outlook, closely monitoring the impact of previous rate hikes on the economy and awaiting election results that may affect national spending plans [1][3]. Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged aligns with the expectations of all surveyed economists, maintaining borrowing costs at a 30-year high [3]. - The voting results showed that one committee member supported a rate hike, while the others preferred to maintain the current rate [3]. Inflation Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that potential inflation is expected to rise moderately, and if the economic situation develops as anticipated, further rate increases will be considered [4]. - Ueda emphasized that the effects of the last rate hike will take time to permeate through the economy and prices, and the bank will closely examine these impacts [4][5]. Currency and Financial Environment - The yen has been weakening, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 159 for the first time since January 14 [6]. - Ueda noted that the BOJ will flexibly conduct bond operations under special circumstances to stabilize yields, particularly due to the unstable supply and demand for long-term Japanese government bonds [4]. Economic and Price Forecast - The BOJ's report on economic and price outlook indicates a slow recovery in the Japanese economy, supported by policy measures and a rebound in overseas economies, with a forecasted GDP growth of 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.8% for fiscal years 2025-2027 [9]. - Short-term inflation is expected to narrow, with core consumer prices projected to fall below 2% in the first half of 2026, influenced by government measures and a decrease in food price inflation [10]. Financial Stability - The current financial environment in Japan remains accommodative, with a stable financial system and smooth financial intermediation activities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is adjusting its monetary policy in response to a resilient economic recovery, raising interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75% while aiming for a stable inflation target of 2% [3][5][12]. Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy - Japan's economy is showing moderate recovery despite external pressures such as U.S. tariff policies and corporate earnings facing downward pressure [2][10]. - The central bank's decision to raise interest rates reflects a careful assessment of the economic situation, marking a turning point from a decade-long period of aggressive monetary easing [9][10]. Wage and Price Dynamics - The tightening labor market has led to significant changes in corporate behavior regarding wage and price setting, with expectations of wage increases continuing into the next year's labor negotiations [4][16]. - A "virtuous cycle" of wage and price dynamics is being established, where increased corporate earnings lead to higher wages, stimulating consumer spending and further driving up prices [17][21]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan anticipates that the inflation rate will stabilize around the 2% target by the second half of 2026 to 2027, supported by a solid wage-price pass-through mechanism and improved inflation expectations [24]. - Current consumer price inflation, excluding fresh food, is around 3%, with expectations of gradual price increases in food and other goods due to rising wages [22][23]. Structural Reforms and Future Projections - The government is implementing a "strong economic comprehensive strategy" to support the virtuous cycle through measures that reduce corporate burdens and improve wage-setting environments [23]. - The ongoing structural changes in the labor market, driven by a declining working-age population, necessitate improvements in labor productivity to address supply constraints [23].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is steadily approaching its 2% price stability target and is open to further interest rate hikes when conditions allow [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The formation of a virtuous cycle of wage growth is occurring, reducing the likelihood of Japan returning to a "zero-normal" state where wages and prices remain unchanged [1] - The labor market is tightening, leading to significant changes in corporate wage-setting and pricing behavior [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan's policy stance remains consistent following the interest rate increase to 0.75% on December 19 [1] - Future adjustments to monetary policy will depend on economic and price trends aligning with the central bank's expectations [1] - A gradual normalization of policy is aimed at achieving the inflation target smoothly while supporting long-term economic growth and business confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level in 30 years, amid ongoing inflationary pressures and expectations for further rate hikes in the coming year [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Bank of Japan's policy committee, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, unanimously agreed to increase the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75% [4]. - The decision reflects an increasing likelihood of achieving economic outlooks, with 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting the rate hike [4]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November, marking 51 consecutive months of increase and remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 44 months [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Bank of Japan emphasized that if the projections in the 2025 outlook report are realized, it will continue to raise policy rates and adjust monetary policy based on economic activity and price improvements [4]. - Governor Ueda indicated that as long as wages continue to rise, core inflation is unlikely to decline, and the transmission of wage increases to prices is ongoing [8]. - The central bank is closely monitoring the impact of the weak yen on future prices, as well as the potential effects of tariffs on consumers [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the interest rate announcement, the yen continued to decline against the dollar, reaching a low of 156.16, indicating that the market had already priced in the rate hike expectations [5]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds hit 2%, the highest level since 2006, while the Nikkei 225 index rose by 1% [5]. Group 4: Future Rate Hikes - Ueda stated that the pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic and inflation data, and it is challenging to determine the neutral interest rate level in advance [7]. - The central bank will assess the impact of the current rate increase on the economy and prices before deciding on further hikes, with most observers expecting a frequency of rate increases to be about once every six months [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, reiterated that the Japanese economy has achieved a "moderate recovery," despite a temporary negative GDP growth in Q3 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - Ueda emphasized that uncertainties regarding the economic outlook are diminishing as companies continue to raise wages and prices, alongside a gradual recovery in the overseas economy [1] - The minimum wage for FY2025 is expected to increase by over 5% year-on-year, likely leading to broader corporate wage hikes [1] Inflation Expectations - Core consumer inflation is projected to temporarily fall below 2% in the first half of FY2026, before accelerating again [1] - Ueda highlighted that inflation levels are expected to align with the 2% target during the latter half of the Bank of Japan's three-year outlook period [1] - Attention is required on recent price trends that may influence inflation expectations and potential inflation risks [1] Monetary Policy - Ueda stated that it is necessary to adjust the monetary easing measures appropriately to achieve price stability, indicating that any interest rate hikes should neither be too late nor too early [1] - Even with potential interest rate increases, a loose financial environment will be maintained, with rate hikes viewed as "moderately easing the accelerator" rather than "slamming the brakes" [1] Data Review and External Risks - The Bank of Japan will review various data in its December meeting to assess domestic and international economic activities and price conditions, weighing the pros and cons of interest rate hikes [2] - Despite signs of weakness in the overseas economy, a gradual recovery is noted, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the global economy has not been significantly observed [2] - Actual interest rates remain at very low levels, and exchange rate movements are more likely to affect domestic prices due to changes in corporate pricing behavior [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda anticipates that the negative GDP growth is only a temporary phenomenon, with actual interest rates remaining very low [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan maintains its basic judgment that the Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery [1] - There is an expectation that the minimum wage will increase by over 5% year-on-year in the fiscal year 2025, which is likely to drive broader corporate wage increases [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Japanese economic outlook appears to be gradually diminishing [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - In the December meeting, the Bank of Japan will review and discuss domestic and international economic activities, price conditions, and market dynamics based on various data [1] - The necessity to adjust the easing measures in a timely manner is emphasized to achieve the price stability target, ensuring that adjustments are neither too late nor too early [1] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The transmission of wage increases to prices is ongoing, with moderate increases observed not only in food prices but also in goods and services [1] - There is a growing consensus that the impact of tariff policies on corporate profits will be limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% during its monetary policy meeting on October 30, following six consecutive meetings without change since the rate was raised in January. The BOJ is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Japanese economy [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ has kept the uncollateralized overnight call rate target at 0.5% since its increase in January [2]. - Two policy board members opposed maintaining the rate, advocating for an increase to 0.75%, citing that the inflation stability target has been largely achieved and that inflation risks are increasing [4]. - The BOJ plans to update its economic and price outlook report every three months, providing forecasts for real GDP growth and consumer price index changes [5]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The BOJ forecasts real GDP growth rates of 0.7% for both 2025 and 2026, and 1.0% for 2027 [5]. - The consumer price index, excluding fresh food, is projected to be 2.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027 [5]. - The BOJ maintains its prediction for achieving the 2% inflation stability target between the latter half of 2026 and 2027 [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations - There is a significant market expectation for a rate hike in December, with a 60% probability according to recent statistics [6]. - The BOJ's President, Ueda, is under scrutiny regarding how he will articulate the rate hike policy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's inflation rate remained stable at 2.0% in July, aligning with the European Central Bank's price stability target, despite significant fluctuations in specific sectors [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Eurozone inflation rate for July is 2.0%, unchanged from June [1] - Fresh food prices surged by 5.4% year-on-year, marking the highest increase for the month [1] - Service price growth slightly decreased from 3.3% in June to 3.1% in July [1] - Energy prices experienced a decline of 2.5% [1]