Group 1: Report Core View - The LPG market showed an upward trend on the pre - holiday week, and the monthly spread fluctuated significantly due to capital behavior. The basis was - 102 (- 31), the 3 - 4 monthly spread was - 164 (+ 139), and the 4 - 5 monthly spread was 81 (- 10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+ 0). During the holiday, the overseas market price increased following the oil price due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The PDH profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term operation still showed resilience. The domestic basis was still weak. After the holiday, downstream replenishment might occur, and chemical demand was also supported, so there was room for the spot price to rebound. The 04 contract was priced based on the overseas market, and its valuation was within a reasonable range, and the 4 - 5 monthly spread valuation was neutral [1] - The overseas market was still tight in the short term, but there was an expectation of weakening in the second quarter. Geopolitical factors were still crucial and needed continuous attention [1] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | - 281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | - 305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | - 282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | - 274 | 296 | | 2026/02/13 | 4750 | 4467 | 4470 | 621 | 551 | 529 | 4460 | 7280 | - 171 | 315 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 30 | - 14 | - 20 | - 5 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 19 | [1]

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the LPG futures market oscillated downward mainly due to falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts were 6,902 lots (+1,035). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4,150 (+30). The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas price ratio oscillated. The internal - external spread weakened. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1] Data Summary Daily Data - **Date Range**: From February 3rd to February 9th, 2026 - **Price Changes**: The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis all had corresponding changes, with daily changes of -70, 0, 30, 1, -8, 5, 130, 50, -68, and 64 respectively [1] Daily View - **Spread and Warehouse Receipts**: On Monday, the 3 - 4 month spread dropped significantly to -347, and the 4 - 5 month spread was 90. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Yuchi increased by 30 [1] - **Spot Market**: LPG spot prices stabilized. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civil gas at 4,150. In the East China market, civil gas prices were stable, and imported gas prices rose, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan/ton. In Shandong, civil gas prices rose slightly, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,400 to 4,510 yuan/ton [1] Weekly View - **Market Trend**: The futures market oscillated downward this week, mainly affected by falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas), and the 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda increasing by 1,000 [1] - **External Market**: The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, the oil - gas price ratio oscillated, and the internal - external spread weakened. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). Freight rates rose [1] - **Profit and Supply - Demand**: PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China); refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with the PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature [1] - **Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. The domestic basis is still weak; the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1]