1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pre - holiday urea price remains firm, with the 05 contract being relatively resistant to decline. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the industry's inventory accumulation after the holiday. The 05&09 spread may continue to oscillate strongly due to the optimistic expectation of peak - season demand. The industry profit is improving but the upside may be limited due to the overall loose supply - demand situation [6][8][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The 05 contract of urea rebounded this week, reaching a new high on Thursday. The UR2605 contract closed at 1843 yuan/ton on Thursday. The pre - holiday urea market is strong. Although the demand is ending, the downstream replenishment is active, the factory orders are good and the inventory is controllable. The 05 contract may resist decline after the holiday supported by the spring - plowing demand [6] - The spot prices in various regions are firm, with the downstream actively replenishing. The factory's offer prices are gradually rising, and the market sentiment is positive. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong is about 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton [8] - The basis of the 05 contract in Shandong and Henan oscillated and declined this week. As of Thursday, the basis of Shandong's 05 contract was about - 43 yuan/ton, and that of Henan's was about - 33 yuan/ton. The UR03&05 spread was about - 19 yuan/ton, and the UR05&09 spread was about 40 yuan/ton, and the latter may continue to oscillate strongly [8] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts has been falling from a high level recently. As the warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled in February, the number will further decline. As of Thursday, there were about 10,949 urea warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Huilong Group, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [9] Device Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea device maintenance volume was about 143,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons from the previous period. The coal - based device maintenance volume was about 93,500 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, and the gas - based device maintenance volume was about 49,700 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The supply pressure may continue to recover [12] - As of February 12, the domestic urea operating rate was about 90.59%, a rise of about 1.45% from the previous period. The weekly urea output was about 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 23,900 tons from last week, and the average daily output was about 213,300 tons, a slight increase of 3,400 tons. The inventory device load may further increase [14] Demand Side - The compound fertilizer operating rate decreased significantly this week. As of February 12, it was about 36.19%, a decline of 5.6% from last week. The profit was generally stable. The inventory increased by 5.02% to about 787,100 tons. During the Spring Festival, the load will remain low and then gradually recover, which will put pressure on soda ash [15][16] - The melamine operating rate increased slightly to about 60.77% as of February 12, and the output also increased slightly. The resumption of some devices drove the load to rebound, and the market fluctuation is relatively limited due to sufficient pending orders [18] Inventory and Pre - orders - As of February 11, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 834,700 tons, a decrease of about 83,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of about 9.12%. The port inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons to about 166,000 tons. The pre - order days increased to about 11.12 days. After the holiday, the inventory may rise and put pressure on the price [20] Industry Profit - As of February 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 82 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry profit was about 291 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the natural - gas profit was about - 208 yuan/ton. The industry profit has been improving and may continue to improve after the holiday, but the upside is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). The warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable with the local transaction center moving down. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30). The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | -281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | -305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | -282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | -274 | 296 | | Daily Change | 0 | -8 | 10 | 0 | -10 | -4 | 10 | 30 | 8 | -17 | [1] Daily Viewpoint - The 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). Warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable, with local transaction centers moving down, and the mainstream transaction price is 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1] - The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PG - FEI c1 is 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB is 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP is 10 (+13). Freight rates have increased. The actual landed cost has fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread has widened, with the latest at -44.75 (-15.75) [1] - PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature has slightly warmed up but is still low, and the rigid demand on the combustion side is still acceptable [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly focus on inventory clearance. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The LPG futures market showed a volatile decline this week mainly due to the fall in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+30). The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost oscillated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China), refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. Overall, the internal basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The outer market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors are still crucial and need continuous attention [1] Summary According to the Catalog Daily Data - From February 4 to February 10, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil changed. The daily changes on February 10 were -15, 0, 20, 2, 2, 4, 80, 0 respectively for these items. The paper import profit decreased by 24, and the main basis decreased by 57 [1] Daily Views - On Tuesday, the 3 - 4 month spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at -297 (+50) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 91 (+1). Warehouse receipts changed with Shanghai Yuchi +5 and Haiyu Petrochemical -175. LPG spot prices stabilized with a slight downward adjustment expected. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai Gaoqiao civil gas at 4150, with a basis of -122. Domestic spot prices were generally stable. The mainstream transaction price in East China was 4150 - 4800, and refineries shipped stably before the festival. Shandong civil gas prices continued to rise, with the mainstream price at 4400 - 4530. With the approaching Spring Festival, there was an expectation of a decline under increased supply. The mainstream price of ether - post carbon four rose, and the low - supply situation led to smooth sales [1] Weekly Views - The futures market oscillated down this week. The basis strengthened, the 3 - 4 month spread decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened. Freight rates rose, and the actual landed cost oscillated weakly. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity, ship arrivals, and refinery storage capacity decreased, while external sales increased. Chemical demand increased, and the PDH operating rate rose. The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. The internal basis is still weak, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival, the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the outer market is still tight in the short term [1]

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the LPG futures market oscillated downward mainly due to falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts were 6,902 lots (+1,035). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4,150 (+30). The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas price ratio oscillated. The internal - external spread weakened. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1] Data Summary Daily Data - **Date Range**: From February 3rd to February 9th, 2026 - **Price Changes**: The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis all had corresponding changes, with daily changes of -70, 0, 30, 1, -8, 5, 130, 50, -68, and 64 respectively [1] Daily View - **Spread and Warehouse Receipts**: On Monday, the 3 - 4 month spread dropped significantly to -347, and the 4 - 5 month spread was 90. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Yuchi increased by 30 [1] - **Spot Market**: LPG spot prices stabilized. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civil gas at 4,150. In the East China market, civil gas prices were stable, and imported gas prices rose, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan/ton. In Shandong, civil gas prices rose slightly, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,400 to 4,510 yuan/ton [1] Weekly View - **Market Trend**: The futures market oscillated downward this week, mainly affected by falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas), and the 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda increasing by 1,000 [1] - **External Market**: The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, the oil - gas price ratio oscillated, and the internal - external spread weakened. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). Freight rates rose [1] - **Profit and Supply - Demand**: PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China); refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with the PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature [1] - **Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. The domestic basis is still weak; the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined mainly due to the drop in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), and the March - April spread was -303 (-9). The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots, with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1]. - The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6). The FEI - MB spread was 185.6 (+16.6), and the FEI - CP spread was 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased [1]. - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature warmed slightly this week but remained low, the rigid demand for combustion was acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will actively discharge inventory [1]. - Overall, the domestic basis remains weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the price of civil LPG may not have much room to fall during the pre - festival inventory discharge; the March - April spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/02 | 4870 | 4428 | 4480 | 616 | 540 | 526 | 4250 | 7150 | -40 | 373 | | 2026/02/03 | 4860 | 4428 | 4480 | 613 | 532 | 524 | 4240 | 7130 | -22 | 334 | | 2026/02/04 | 4845 | 4428 | 4470 | 624 | 560 | 535 | 4250 | 7200 | -125 | 277 | | 2026/02/05 | 4845 | 4446 | 4470 | 634 | 573 | 536 | 4250 | 7230 | -198 | 373 | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | Daily Change | -10 | 29 | -30 | 1 | -4 | -4 | -10 | 0 | -15 | -56 | Capacity and Demand Data - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94% [1]. - Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic market rose significantly affected by geopolitical and external market factors. Although the PDH operation rate decreased, the fundamentals remained tight in the short - term due to the US cold wave and the peak combustion season. As the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply returns, the negative feedback under poor PDH profits and the March maintenance season will weaken the driving force. The domestic market month - spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support positive spreads, but attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Daily Quotes - 03 - 04 month - spread was - 288 (- 13), 04 - 05 month - spread was 110 (+5). As of 9 p.m., FEI and CP paper prices reached $572 and $545 respectively. The 03 basis was 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 month - spread was 64 (- 16), 03 - 04 month - spread was - 261 (- 32). Civil gas prices were differentiated, with Shandong at 4460 (+20), East China at 4372 (- 151), and South China at 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 lots (- 79). FEI month - spread rose, MB and CP month - spreads fell slightly, the oil - gas ratio declined slightly, FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP strengthened. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI c1 was 55.1 (- 18.7). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China, was 85 (+8). The FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 36 (- 1.75), 20 (- 9), and $62.52 (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPI spread was - 18 (weekly YoY: +9) [4] 3.2 Weekly Views - Spot profits fluctuated, and paper profits dropped significantly. Port inventories decreased by 1.53%, ship arrivals decreased by 13.21%, and demand narrowed. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21%, and external releases increased by 2.11%. The PDH operation rate was 62.25% (- 10.82%), with the second - phase of Juzhengyuan under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic market rose significantly due to geopolitical and external market factors. Although the PDH operating rate decreased, the fundamentals remained tight in the short - term due to the US cold wave and the peak combustion season. As the cold wave ends, Middle - East supply returns, and with the negative feedback of poor PDH profits and the March maintenance season, the driving force will weaken. The domestic market's monthly spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support positive spreads, but attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Quotes - 03 - 04 monthly spread is - 275 (- 1), 04 - 05 monthly spread is 105 (+ 17). As of 9 pm, FEI and CP paper cargo prices reached 550.57 and 538.57 US dollars respectively. The 03 basis is 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 monthly spread is 64 (- 16), 03 - 04 monthly spread is - 261 (- 32). Civil gas prices are differentiated: Shandong is 4460 (+ 20), East China is 4372 (- 151), South China is 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after 4350 (+ 10). Warehouse receipts are 5898 lots (- 79). FEI monthly spreads rose, MB and CP monthly spreads fell slightly, the oil - gas ratio declined slightly, FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP strengthened. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI c1 is 55.1 (- 18.7). The CIF discount of propane in East China, China is 85 (+ 8); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane are 36 (- 1.75), 20 (- 9), and 62.52 US dollars (+ 11.72) respectively. Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPI spread is - 18 (week - on - week; + 9) [4] 3.2 Weekly Outlook - Spot profits fluctuated, and paper cargo profits declined significantly. Port inventories decreased by 1.53%, ship arrivals decreased by 13.21%, and demand narrowed. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21%, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate is 62.25% (- 10.82%), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Overall, both domestic and international valuations are relatively high. In terms of external market drivers, short - term supply and demand remain tight, but the buying interest for Middle - East shipments in February has weakened. After the fog in the US dissipates, the supply pressure is still significant, and the end of the combustion demand is approaching. It is expected that the fundamentals of the external market will weaken. The valuation of the domestic 02 contract is neutral, and the drivers should focus on whether there will be negative feedback under the low profit of PDH and the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts. The valuation of the 3 - 4 month spread is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily Situation - On Tuesday, due to rising geopolitical risks, the futures market rose significantly. The 02 - 03 month spread was 77 (-12), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -213 (-6). As of 9 pm on Tuesday, the FEI and CP paper prices were 521.84 and 526.84 US dollars respectively, up 7.34 US dollars compared to 8 pm on Monday [4]. - The domestic market rose and then fluctuated. The 02 basis was 179 (+51), the 02 - 03 month spread was 85 (-34), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -192 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 6,218 (-180). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4,400 (+40), East China at 4,467 (+70), and South China at 4,840 (+75). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4,390 (-90). The absolute price of paper goods increased. The FEI and CP month spreads decreased slightly, while the MB month spread increased slightly. The oil - gas ratio fluctuated. Both domestic and international markets strengthened, with PG - FEI reaching 86.7 (+9.7) and PG - CP reaching 80 (+9). The CIF discount of propane in East China, China was 79 (+13) [4]. Weekly Situation - The AFB margin has recovered but is still poor. The port storage capacity ratio increased by 0.14 pct due to limited ship arrivals. Refineries had a small destocking of -0.47%, and external sales increased by 1.07% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].