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LPG早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 04:21
报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]
LPG早报-20250721
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PG futures prices have been oscillating downward. Although the chemical demand outlook is relatively strong, the decline in oil prices and the weakening of international LPG prices have led to a weaker futures market. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis has strengthened to 433 (+93). The inter - month reverse arbitrage has strengthened due to weak spot prices and the shift of the main contract. The number of registered warrants is 8804 lots (+500), with 500 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The external market prices have continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. [1] - Despite the strong chemical demand expectations, under the suppression of weak combustion demand, the domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillating trend. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data Summary - On July 18, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4530, 4486, and 4610 respectively. The propane CFR South China was 553, propane CIF Japan was 505, MB propane spot was 71, and CP forecast contract price was 538. The price of Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4890, and Shandong alkylated oil was 8000. The daily changes were - 40, 0, 20, - 2, - 2, 1, - 8, 40, 80 respectively. The PG futures price decreased, the monthly spread declined, and the 08 - 09 spread was 63. The US - Far East arbitrage window opened. [1] Weekly View Summary - **Market Trend**: The PG futures market oscillated downward. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand, despite strong chemical demand expectations. [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse arbitrage strengthened. The number of registered warrants increased to 8804 lots (+500). [1] - **External Market**: The external market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The regional spreads such as PG - CP, FEI - MB, FEI - CP, and FEI - MOPJ changed, and the US - Asia arbitrage window opened. [1] - **Profit Situation**: The PDH profit improved, while the MTBE export profit declined. [1] - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventories increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% due to reduced supply in South China, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China. [1] - **Chemical Demand**: Chemical demand is strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate increased. MTBE export orders increased. [1]