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LPG早报-20260213
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 01:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). The warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable with the local transaction center moving down. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30). The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | -281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | -305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | -282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | -274 | 296 | | Daily Change | 0 | -8 | 10 | 0 | -10 | -4 | 10 | 30 | 8 | -17 | [1] Daily Viewpoint - The 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). Warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable, with local transaction centers moving down, and the mainstream transaction price is 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1] - The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PG - FEI c1 is 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB is 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP is 10 (+13). Freight rates have increased. The actual landed cost has fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread has widened, with the latest at -44.75 (-15.75) [1] - PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature has slightly warmed up but is still low, and the rigid demand on the combustion side is still acceptable [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly focus on inventory clearance. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]
LPG早报-20260210
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 02:04
Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the LPG futures market oscillated downward mainly due to falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts were 6,902 lots (+1,035). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4,150 (+30). The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas price ratio oscillated. The internal - external spread weakened. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1] Data Summary Daily Data - **Date Range**: From February 3rd to February 9th, 2026 - **Price Changes**: The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis all had corresponding changes, with daily changes of -70, 0, 30, 1, -8, 5, 130, 50, -68, and 64 respectively [1] Daily View - **Spread and Warehouse Receipts**: On Monday, the 3 - 4 month spread dropped significantly to -347, and the 4 - 5 month spread was 90. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Yuchi increased by 30 [1] - **Spot Market**: LPG spot prices stabilized. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civil gas at 4,150. In the East China market, civil gas prices were stable, and imported gas prices rose, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan/ton. In Shandong, civil gas prices rose slightly, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,400 to 4,510 yuan/ton [1] Weekly View - **Market Trend**: The futures market oscillated downward this week, mainly affected by falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas), and the 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda increasing by 1,000 [1] - **External Market**: The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, the oil - gas price ratio oscillated, and the internal - external spread weakened. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). Freight rates rose [1] - **Profit and Supply - Demand**: PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China); refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with the PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature [1] - **Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. The domestic basis is still weak; the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1]
LPG早报-20260128
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 01:26
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly influenced by geopolitical factors and the international market. The overall internal and external valuation is moderately high. Despite the decline in PDH operation rate, the fundamentals remain tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the US and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply resumes, combined with negative feedback from poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the upward momentum will weaken. The domestic LPG spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. [4] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price and Spread Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From 2026/01/21 to 2026/01/27, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, showed fluctuations. The daily change on 2026/01/27 included a 70 - yuan increase in South China LPG, a 2 - yuan increase in East China LPG, and a 10 - yuan decrease in Shandong LPG. [4] - **Spread Data**: The 03 - 04 spread was - 274 (- 6), and the 04 - 05 spread was 88 (- 5). As of 9 pm, FEI and CP paper prices reached $539.64 and $534.64 respectively. Weekly spreads also changed, with the 03 basis at 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 spread at 64 (- 16), and 03 - 04 spread at - 261 (- 32). [4] 2. Market Conditions and Factors - **Domestic Market**: The domestic market was significantly affected by geopolitical and international factors this week. Civil LPG prices were divergent, with Shandong at 4460 (+ 20), East China at 4372 (- 151), and South China at 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+ 10). Warehouse receipts were 5898 lots (- 79). [4] - **International Market**: FEI spreads rose, while MB and CP spreads slightly declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased slightly, FEI strengthened against CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The PG - FEI c1 spread was 55.1 (- 18.7). Propane arrival discounts in East China, and FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US also changed. Freight rates decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (weekly + 9). [4] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper profits dropped significantly. [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%. Refinery storage utilization increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. [4] 4. Industry Operation PDH operation rate was 62.25% (- 10.82 pct). Juzhengyuan Phase II was under maintenance, and Ruiheng had a breakdown and stopped production, expected to resume next week. [4]
LPG早报-20260121
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 01:39
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly center. The 02-03 and 3-4 spreads form reverse spreads, and the follow - up needs to focus on the situation of warehouse receipts. Overall, the internal and external valuations are high, the supply - demand pattern of the external market is expected to weaken, while the domestic valuation is neutral [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Daily Data - From January 14 to January 20, 2026, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related products such as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil, showed different degrees of changes. The daily changes on January 20 were - 60, - 50, 0, - 4, 0, - 2, 0, - 20, - 27, - 12 respectively [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Tuesday, the futures market dropped significantly. The 02 - 03 spread was 90 (+3), the 03 - 04 spread was - 279 (-12), and the 02 - 04 spread was - 189 (-9). On Monday night at 10 o'clock, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices rose slightly to 529.45 US dollars [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly center. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4340 (-50). The warehouse receipts were 5977 lots (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared with CP and MB. The internal and external PG - FEI was 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP was 69.6 (-8). The arrival discount of propane in East China, China was 77 (-2), and the FOB discounts of propane from AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. The freight increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 27 (week - on - week +12). The PDH profit was significantly repaired but still poor. The port inventory decreased by 4.9%, the arrival of ships increased by 2.7%, and the overall shipment increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and the external supply decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February, with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline [1].
LPG早报-20260113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 01:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic market rises and then fluctuates. The 02 basis is 179 (+51), the 02 - 03 spread is 85 (-34), and the 03 - 04 spread is -192 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts is 6218 lots (-180). The price of civil gas increases, with Shandong at 4400 (+40), East China at 4467 (+70), and South China at 4840 (+75). The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4390 (-90). The absolute price of paper goods rises. The FEI and CP spreads decline slightly, and the MB spread rises slightly. The oil - gas ratio fluctuates. Both domestic and foreign markets strengthen, with PG - FEI reaching 86.7 (+9.7) and PG - CP reaching 80 (+9). The CIF discount of propane in East China, China, is 79 (+13). The AFB recovers to some extent but is still poor. The port storage capacity ratio is 0.14 pct due to limited arrivals; refineries have a small destocking of -0.47%, and external sales increase by 1.07777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777777
LPG早报-20260112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 01:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The internal market rose and then fluctuated. The 02 basis was 179 (+51), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 85 (-34), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -192 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 6218 lots (-180). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4400 (+40), East China at 4467 (+70), and South China at 4840 (+75). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after 4390 (-90). The absolute price of paper goods rose. The FEI and CP monthly spreads decreased slightly, and the MB monthly spread increased slightly. The oil - gas ratio fluctuated. Both the internal and external markets strengthened, with PG - FEI reaching 86.7 (+9.7) and PG - CP reaching 80 (+9). The CIF discount of propane in East China, China, was 79 (+13) [4]. - Overall, the internal and external valuations were relatively high. In terms of the external market drive, the short - term supply and demand remained tight, but the buying interest for Middle - East shipments in February weakened. After the fog in the United States dissipated, the supply pressure was still high, and the end of the combustion demand was approaching. It was expected that the fundamentals of the external market would weaken subsequently. The valuation of the internal 02 contract was neutral, and the drive should focus on whether there would be negative feedback under the low profit of PDH and the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts. The 3 - 4 monthly spread valuation was relatively high, and the key was to pay attention to the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Daily Situation - From January 5th to January 9th, 2026, the prices of LPG in different regions (South China, East China, Shandong, etc.), propane CFR South China, paper import profits, and other data showed certain fluctuations. For example, on January 9th, compared with previous days, there were changes such as the price of Shandong LPG at 4467, and the paper import profit at 285 [4]. - As of Monday, 8:16 am, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 515 and 522 US dollars respectively, up 10 and 4 respectively from 8 pm on Friday [4]. Weekly Situation - The port storage capacity ratio increased by 0.14 pct due to limited arrivals; the refinery inventory decreased slightly by -0.47%, and the external supply increased by 1.07% [4].
LPG早报-20251225
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PG futures price has rebounded. The Middle East resources are tight, the premium is still rising, and the winter price is hard to fall. The official January CP price is approaching. The internal and external valuations are high, but the driving force is weak, and the internal and external trading logics are differentiated. The upward driving force of FEI is limited, and the domestic market needs to focus on the negative feedback between warehouse receipts and PDH, with high uncertainty [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price Data - On Tuesday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4377 (-11), in Shandong was 4370 (+0), and in South China was 4475 (-5). The price of etherified C4 was 4580 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 135 [4] - The daily changes were: basis (+51), 01 - 02 spread 147 (-7), 03 - 04 spread -194 (-1). As of 21:00, FEI was 526 (+5) and CP was 506 (+0) dollars/ton [4] - The PG futures price rebounded. The 01 basis was 162 (-187), the 01 - 02 spread was 119 (+35), and the 03 - 04 spread was -206 (+33). The number of warehouse receipts was 3368 lots (-108) [4] - The domestic civil LPG market was differentiated. The cheapest delivery product was in Shandong at 4380 (-50); in East China at 4398 (-21), and in South China at 4500 (+80) [4] Market Relationship Data - The FEI monthly spread strengthened, the CP monthly spread weakened, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal and external relationships strengthened. PG - CP reached 99.6 (+28); PG - FEI reached 85.6 (+20); FEI - MB reached 170 (+6), and FEI - CP reached 14 (+8) [4] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 83 (-7). The FOB premiums of propane in the Middle East and the US were 13 (-24.25), 51 (+9), and 43 dollars (-4) respectively. FEI - MOPJ was -19.25 [4] Profit and Inventory Data - The spot profit of PDH was weak, and the futures profit rebounded. The arrivals decreased by 7.64%, and the port inventory decreased by -7.89%. The commercial volume of refineries increased by +0.82%, and the refinery inventory decreased by -0.03% [4] - The PDH operating rate was 75% (+2.13 pct) [4]
LPG早报-20251222
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 01:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - The LPG market is characterized by a tight supply of Middle Eastern resources, rising premiums, and high prices in winter. The 1 - month CP official price is approaching release. The internal and external valuations are high, but the driving force is weak, and the internal and external trading logics are differentiated. The upward driving force of FEI is limited, and the domestic market needs to focus on the negative feedback between warehouse receipts and PDH, with high uncertainty [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price and Basis - On December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices of Shandong LPG, propane CIF Japan, Shandong ether - after carbon four, etc. fluctuated. The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 143 and a daily change of (- 19). The 01 - 02 month spread was 145 (+ 26), the 02 - 03 month spread was 166 (+ 5), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 185 (+ 21). The FEI was 512 (+ 6) and the CP was 498 (- 1) US dollars/ton [4] Market Trends - The LPG futures price rebounded. The 01 basis was 162 (- 187), the 01 - 02 month spread was 119 (+ 35), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 206 (+ 33). The number of warehouse receipts was 3368 lots (- 108). Domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the most suitable delivery product being Shandong at 4380 (- 50), East China at 4398 (- 21), and South China at 4500 (+ 80). The FEI month spread strengthened, the CP month spread weakened, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated [4] Profit and Inventory - The PDH spot profit was weak, but the futures profit rebounded. The number of arriving ships decreased by 7.64%, and the port inventory decreased by 7.89%. The refinery commercial volume increased by 0.82%, and the refinery inventory decreased by 0.03%. The PDH operating rate was 75% (+ 2.13 pct) [4]
LPG早报-20251120
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 01:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PG main contract is running strongly. The domestic chemical industry is firm, and there are expectations for the civilian sector to strengthen during the peak season, but the market valuation is high. The international propane market pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the United States [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4325 (-10), in Shandong was 4370 (-10), and in South China was 4345 (+0). The price of etherified C4 was 4590 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -60 (-62), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 81 (+20). FEI was 502 (-10) and CP was 486 (+14) dollars per ton [4] Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery products were civil gas in East China at 4364 (-10), in Shandong at 4440 (+60), and in South China at 4460 (+10); etherified C4 was 4630 (+130). The overseas paper goods prices rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, the domestic - foreign price difference weakened, PG - CP reached 128 (-9), and PG - FEI reached 111 (-2). The discount strengthened. The arrival discount of propane in East China was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively. The freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong improved slightly, the profit of alkylation units deteriorated, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. Domestic production decreased slightly, the arrival volume was limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), Donghua Zhangjiagang restarted, and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei stopped for maintenance [4]
LPG早报-20251117
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 02:58
Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is an LPG morning report by the energy and chemical team of the research center on November 17, 2025, presenting data from November 10 - 14, 2025 [4] Group 2: Daily Changes - On Friday, for civil LPG, prices were 4364 (-4) in East China, 4400 (+0) in Shandong, and 4460 (-30) in South China; ether - post - carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 1 (-43), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (-8). FEI was 502 (-1) and CP was 481 (-1) dollars/ton [4] Group 3: Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4364 (-10), 4440 (+60) in Shandong, 4460 (+10) in South China; ether - post - carbon four was 4630 (+130) [4] - The overseas paper cargo prices rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly; the month spread strengthened; the domestic - foreign price difference weakened, with PG - CP at 128 (-9) and PG - FEI at 111 (-2) [4] - The discount strengthened. The arrival discount of propane in East China was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively [4] - Freight rates weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year [4] - The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong recovered slightly; the profit of alkylation units deteriorated; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good [4] - Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), with Donghua Zhangjiagang restarted and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei under maintenance and shut - down [4] - Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, there is an expectation of a strong peak season for civil use, but the futures price is over - valued; the international propane market pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the US [4]