Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the document. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the sentiment of news is expected to dominate the market, and continuous attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation. Due to high short - term geopolitical risks, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the expected decline in propane prices, PDH profits may experience a phased repair in the short - term, but due to downstream over - capacity, opportunities to short PDH profits at high levels within the year can be sought [1]. - Last week, the market went up, mainly affected by geopolitical factors and Saudi device failures. The basis was - 342 (-76), the April - May spread was 73 (-8), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6679 (-83). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civilian gas at 4200 (+50). The FEI spread was 47.5 US dollars (+27.5), and the oil - gas price ratio declined significantly. The March CP official price was lower than expected, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+0). The domestic and international markets were strong first and then weak [1]. - The Saudi Juaymah pipeline facility failure may have a relatively limited impact on domestic imports; the Iran situation is the biggest risk factor, and continuous attention should be paid to Iranian docks, energy facilities, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The domestic basis is weak, the April - May spread is moderately low, and with the escalation of geopolitical risks, the market is expected to be strong in the short - term; the tight supply pattern of overseas propane in April is difficult to ease, and the strategy of shorting the domestic - international spread can still be considered in the short - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot/盘面价格变动情况描述 - PG04 slightly declined, closing at 5150 at night. The April - May spread was 115. The FEI near - month spread was 58 (-2). The mainstream price of Shandong civilian gas remained stable today, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4650 to 5050 yuan/ton [1]. Important Data Updates + Comments - The sample inventory of Chinese LPG ports was 230.75 million tons, an increase of 8.39 million tons or 3.77% from the previous period. The production - sales rate of Chinese LPG sample enterprises was 103%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic propane dehydrogenation plants this period was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. Hot News Summary + Comments - Trump: Further measures will be taken to ease the pressure in the oil market. Iranian Foreign Minister: There is no request for a cease - fire, and preparations are made to deal with a US ground invasion. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on the premise that the US proposes a satisfactory alternative. The Deputy Foreign Minister of the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed during the war [1]. 主力合约走势观点 - In the short - term, it is expected that the sentiment of news will dominate the market, and continuous attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation [1]. Recommended Strategies (Short - term/Medium - to - long - term) - In the short - term, due to high geopolitical risks, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the expected decline in propane prices, PDH profits may experience a phased repair in the short - term, but due to downstream over - capacity, opportunities to short PDH profits at high levels within the year can be sought [1]. Weekly Viewpoints - The inventory of Chinese LPG ports increased by 7.27 million tons (+1.74%). The PDH operating rate was 63.23% (-1.61 pct), chemical demand was resilient, and combustion demand would gradually enter the off - season as the weather got warmer. The Saudi Juaymah pipeline facility failure may have a relatively limited impact on domestic imports; the Iran situation is the biggest risk factor, and continuous attention should be paid to Iranian docks, energy facilities, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The domestic basis is weak, the April - May spread is moderately low, and with the escalation of geopolitical risks, the market is expected to be strong in the short - term; the tight supply pattern of overseas propane in April is difficult to ease, and the strategy of shorting the domestic - international spread can still be considered in the short - term [1]. Market Conditions in Different Regions - In the South China market, prices rose sporadically, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4800 to 4950 yuan/ton, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm remained. In the East China market, refineries were optimistic, the number of arriving ships at docks was limited, and both imported and domestic products increased in price. FEI c1 dropped to 43.9 (-5.5). The arrival premium of propane in East China was 107 (+14); the FOB premiums of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 20 (-7), 78.15 (+13), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 22 (+20). PDH spot profits increased slightly, while futures profits decreased significantly. The port inventory ratio was 33.12% (+2.77 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 100%, and the external supply was 5 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term market sentiment will dominate the LPG futures market, and continuous attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation [1] - In the short - term, due to excessive geopolitical risks, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, propane prices are expected to decline, which may lead to a short - term phased repair of PDH profits. However, due to the over - capacity of downstream industries, opportunities to short PDH profits at high levels within the year can be sought [1] - The domestic LPG futures market is expected to be strong in the short - term due to geopolitical risks, and the tight supply of overseas propane in April is difficult to ease. The strategy of shorting the domestic - foreign price difference can still be considered in the short - term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On March 4, 2026, the LPG futures market continued to rise. The main contract 2604 closed at 5304 (+257), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 112 (+37). At night, 04 closed at 5139 (-177), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 123 (+11). FEI near - month was 677 (+32) during the day and 651.5 (-25.5) at night, with a month spread of 60 (+8.5) during the day and 55 (-5) at night [1] - The prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong all increased on March 4 compared to the previous day, with increases of 90, 117, and 210 respectively. The prices of propane CFR South China and CP forecast contract price also increased, while the paper import profit decreased by 43, and the main contract basis decreased by 61 [1] Important Data Updates - PDH devices such as Wanhua in March, Jiangsu Hengrui in Q2, Ningbo Formosa Plastics at the end of March, and Donghua Maoming at the end of March all have maintenance plans [1] Hot News - The conflict between Iran and the US - Israel shows signs of extension. Iran's Supreme Leader's senior assistant said Iran has no intention to negotiate with the US. According to Iranian media, a member of the Assembly of Experts said the candidate for the Supreme Leader has been determined, and the Leadership Council is currently running the country and will appoint a new Supreme Leader soon [1] Weekly Data - Last week, the LPG futures market rose, mainly affected by geopolitical factors and a Saudi device failure. The basis was - 342 (-76), the 4 - 5 month spread was 73 (-8), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6679 (-83). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civil LPG at 4200 (+50) [1] - The FEI month spread was 47.5 US dollars (+27.5), the oil - gas price ratio decreased significantly. The March CP official price was lower than expected, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+0). The domestic - foreign price relationship was strong first and then weak, with PG - FEI c1 at 43.9 (-5.5) [1] - The East China propane arrival premium was 107 (+14); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 20 (-7), 78.15 (+13), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 22 (+20) [1] - PDH spot profit increased slightly, while futures profit decreased significantly. The port inventory ratio was 33.12% (+2.77pct), the sales - production ratio of LPG sample enterprises was 100%, and the external supply was 57.27 tons (+1.74%). The PDH operating rate was 63.23% (-1.61pct) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 3rd, the LPG futures market nearly hit the daily limit due to geopolitical factors, with the night - session closing at 5417. The 4 - 5 month spread fluctuated significantly. The market is in a game between supply risks from geopolitical tensions and weak demand [1]. - Last week, the futures price increase was mainly affected by geopolitical issues and a Saudi device malfunction. The basis weakened, and the 4 - 5 month spread was neutral to low. Geopolitical risks have escalated, and the futures market is expected to be strong in the short term. The tight supply of overseas propane in April is expected to continue, and a strategy of shorting the domestic - foreign price difference can be considered in the short term [1]. 3. Summary of Key Data and Information Price Data - From February 25th to March 3rd, prices of LPG in different regions and related products changed. For example, the price of South China LPG rose from 4770 to 5070, and the price of propane CFR South China increased from 641 to 789 [1]. - The daily change on March 3rd showed that South China LPG rose by 90, East China LPG by 50, and Shandong LPG by 10 [1]. Market Conditions in Different Regions - In Shandong, the civil LPG market stabilized with local increases, with mainstream transactions at 4600 - 4650 yuan/ton. Due to the tense Middle East situation, subsequent imports will be restricted, but the downstream's further price - increasing power is limited [1]. - In East China, the market continued to rise but at a slower pace, with mainstream transactions at 4400 - 4800 yuan/ton. The short - term market may see a slowdown in growth and then stabilize [1]. - In South China, the domestic LPG price was in the range of 5050 - 5100 yuan/ton, and the imported LPG was at 5100 - 5320 yuan/ton. The market is in a game between supply risks and weak demand [1]. Other Key Data - The basis was - 342 (- 76), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 73 (- 8). The number of warehouse receipts was 6679 (- 83) [1]. - The FEI monthly spread was 47.5 US dollars (+ 27.5), and the oil - gas price ratio decreased significantly. The March CP official price was lower than expected, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+ 0) [1]. - PDH spot profit increased slightly, while futures profit decreased significantly. The port inventory ratio was 33.12% (+ 2.77 pct), the production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 100%, and the external supply was 57.27 tons (+ 1.74%). The PDH operating rate was 63.23% (- 1.61 pct) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On March 2, the LPG futures market hit the daily limit due to geopolitical factors. The main contract 04 closed at 4,794 yuan/ton during the day and 4,983 yuan/ton at night. The 4 - 5 month spread and PG/FEI ARB changed accordingly. The domestic spot market was affected by geopolitical conflicts, with downstream buyers entering the market due to fear of price increases. The Shandong ether - post market is expected to see high - price drops and low - price increases tomorrow. [1] - Last week, the futures price increased mainly due to geopolitical factors and a Saudi device failure. The basis, 4 - 5 month spread, and other indicators changed. The 3 - month CP official price was lower than expected. The port inventory ratio increased, and the PDH spot profit slightly increased while the futures profit decreased significantly. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting the domestic - overseas spread can be considered. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From February 24 to March 2, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil changed. The paper import profit and main contract basis also had corresponding changes. The daily change on March 2 showed significant increases in most prices. [1] Daily Viewpoint - On March 2, the LPG futures market was affected by geopolitical factors. The main contract 04 closed at 4,794 yuan/ton during the day and 4,983 yuan/ton at night. The 4 - 5 month spread and PG/FEI ARB changed. The domestic spot market saw downstream buyers entering the market due to fear of price increases. The Shandong ether - post market is expected to adjust tomorrow. [1] Weekly Viewpoint - Last week, the futures price increase was due to geopolitical factors and a Saudi device failure. The basis, 4 - 5 month spread, and other indicators changed. The 3 - month CP official price was lower than expected. The port inventory ratio increased, and the PDH spot profit slightly increased while the futures profit decreased significantly. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting the domestic - overseas spread can be considered. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints -节前 week, the futures price mainly went up, and the monthly spread fluctuated greatly due to capital behavior. The basis was -102 (-31), the 3 - 4 monthly spread was -164 (+139), and the 4 - 5 monthly spread was 81 (-10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+0). During the holiday, the external market price increased following the oil price due to geopolitical tensions. PDH profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term operating rate still had resilience. The domestic basis was still weak. After the holiday, downstream replenishment might occur, and chemical demand was also supported, so the spot price had room for rebound. The 04 contract was priced based on the external market, and its valuation was within a reasonable range, while the 4 - 5 monthly spread valuation was neutral. The external market was still tight in the short term, but there was an expectation of weakening in the second quarter, and geopolitics was a key factor that needed continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Quotes - On February 24, PG2604 closed up at 4582 (+119) during the day session, with the 3 - 4 monthly spread at -285 (-129) and the 4 - 5 monthly spread at 79 (-18); it fell to 4535 (-47) during the night session, with the 3 - 4 monthly spread at -280 (+5) and the 4 - 5 monthly spread at 81 (+2). The absolute price of the external market increased slightly, with the FEI monthly spread at 26 (-2) and the CP monthly spread at 14 (+0) [1]. - The cheapest deliverable in the domestic spot market was Shanghai civil gas at 4150. In Shandong, the price of civil LPG was stable with a slight decline, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4450 to 4580 yuan/ton. Downstream had replenishment demand, but external resources were flowing in, so there was an expectation of short - term stabilization or decline. In the East China market, the price was generally stable, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4150 to 4700 yuan/ton. The market transportation capacity had not fully recovered, and refineries needed to digest inventory accumulated during the holiday, so they were not willing to adjust prices. It was expected that the East China market would run stably in the short term. In the South China market, the price was generally stable with minor adjustments, and some areas had a slight increase. The mainstream price of domestic LPG in South China was 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton, and that of imported LPG was 4700 - 5100 yuan/ton. The prices of major refineries in western Guangdong and Guangxi increased slightly, but in the Pearl River Delta, the post - holiday replenishment demand was lower than expected, the upstream supply was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand recovered slowly. The market supply - demand fundamentals were loose, so the price increase momentum was insufficient [1].

Group 1: Report Core View - The LPG market showed an upward trend on the pre - holiday week, and the monthly spread fluctuated significantly due to capital behavior. The basis was - 102 (- 31), the 3 - 4 monthly spread was - 164 (+ 139), and the 4 - 5 monthly spread was 81 (- 10). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+ 0). During the holiday, the overseas market price increased following the oil price due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The PDH profit increased slightly but remained poor, and the short - term operation still showed resilience. The domestic basis was still weak. After the holiday, downstream replenishment might occur, and chemical demand was also supported, so there was room for the spot price to rebound. The 04 contract was priced based on the overseas market, and its valuation was within a reasonable range, and the 4 - 5 monthly spread valuation was neutral [1] - The overseas market was still tight in the short term, but there was an expectation of weakening in the second quarter. Geopolitical factors were still crucial and needed continuous attention [1] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | - 281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | - 305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | - 282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | - 274 | 296 | | 2026/02/13 | 4750 | 4467 | 4470 | 621 | 551 | 529 | 4460 | 7280 | - 171 | 315 | | Daily Change | 0 | 0 | 30 | - 14 | - 20 | - 5 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 19 | [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). The warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable with the local transaction center moving down. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30). The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | -281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | -305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | -282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | -274 | 296 | | Daily Change | 0 | -8 | 10 | 0 | -10 | -4 | 10 | 30 | 8 | -17 | [1] Daily Viewpoint - The 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). Warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable, with local transaction centers moving down, and the mainstream transaction price is 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1] - The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PG - FEI c1 is 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB is 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP is 10 (+13). Freight rates have increased. The actual landed cost has fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread has widened, with the latest at -44.75 (-15.75) [1] - PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature has slightly warmed up but is still low, and the rigid demand on the combustion side is still acceptable [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly focus on inventory clearance. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the LPG futures market oscillated downward mainly due to falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts were 6,902 lots (+1,035). The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4,150 (+30). The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas price ratio oscillated. The internal - external spread weakened. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1] Data Summary Daily Data - **Date Range**: From February 3rd to February 9th, 2026 - **Price Changes**: The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis all had corresponding changes, with daily changes of -70, 0, 30, 1, -8, 5, 130, 50, -68, and 64 respectively [1] Daily View - **Spread and Warehouse Receipts**: On Monday, the 3 - 4 month spread dropped significantly to -347, and the 4 - 5 month spread was 90. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Yuchi increased by 30 [1] - **Spot Market**: LPG spot prices stabilized. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai civil gas at 4,150. In the East China market, civil gas prices were stable, and imported gas prices rose, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan/ton. In Shandong, civil gas prices rose slightly, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4,400 to 4,510 yuan/ton [1] Weekly View - **Market Trend**: The futures market oscillated downward this week, mainly affected by falling oil prices and a weakening basis of PG itself [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas), and the 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda increasing by 1,000 [1] - **External Market**: The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, the oil - gas price ratio oscillated, and the internal - external spread weakened. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). Freight rates rose [1] - **Profit and Supply - Demand**: PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China); refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external supply increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with the PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The demand for combustion was still good due to the low temperature [1] - **Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly actively discharge inventory. The domestic basis is still weak; the downward space for civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors remain crucial and need continuous attention [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are strong, and the fundamental driving force is downward. In the short term, the market focuses on the geopolitical situation in Iran, with strong emotional support. In the medium to long term, as the supply reduction gradually returns and the demand - side PDH is in deep loss, the driving force is downward [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The upward driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances. Next week, with the expected return of fluctuating PDH devices, the tight - balance pattern of propylene may improve, and its trend is more driven by the cost and supply sides [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - The US dollar cost of LPG maintains a strong and volatile trend, and domestic civil prices rise steadily. The freight rate has increased, the spot premium has declined, and the US Gulf - Far East arbitrage window remains open [12]. - The lowest deliverable product is East China civil LPG [15]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 543,000 tons (+1.9%), including 232,000 tons of civil gas (+1.6%) and 169,000 tons of ether - after carbon four (+2.9%). The propane import volume has decreased by 43,000 tons compared with the previous period [63][74]. - The total US LPG shipment volume is stable month - on - month, the Canadian shipment volume is stable, and the Middle East LPG shipment volume has increased month - on - month [42][45]. - **Demand & Inventory** - The PDH operating rate has further declined slightly, and the MTBE operating rate is flat month - on - month. The LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in 2025, and there is regional differentiation in the civil gas refinery inventory. The LPG terminal imported cargo inventory continues to decrease [81][83][93][107]. - **Balance Sheet** - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, the supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [119]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - Geopolitical risks have intensified, costs have increased, and propylene's own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, rising and then stabilizing. The PDH profit has weakened after a brief recovery [122]. - International/US - dollar prices have increased month - on - month, and the import window remains closed. Domestic prices were strong at the beginning of the week and gradually stabilized in the middle of the week [126][132]. - **Balance Sheet** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The oil - based operating rate has increased, while the PDH and MTO operating rates have declined. Downstream varieties have more load - reduction than load - increase [142]. - The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions are analyzed in detail, including the production, import, export, and consumption of each month from 2025 to 2026 [146][163][166]. - **Supply** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The refinery/main - operating rate has further increased to 80%, the ethylene cracking operating rate is 85.1% (+3.0%), the PDH capacity utilization rate is 60.7% (-1.5%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 80.9% (-3.4%) [173][184][194][199]. - Some PDH and MTO devices have undergone maintenance and restart operations [198][203]. - **Demand** - The PP capacity utilization rate is 74.8% (-1.3%), the PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32.1% (+1.3%), the PO capacity utilization rate is 73.3% (+0.3%), the acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-6.2%), the acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 84.2% (+2.6%), the n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 86.1% (-1.4%), the octanol capacity utilization rate is 91.0% (-5.0%), the phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the ECH capacity utilization rate is 54.3% (-3.7%) [215][234][246][259][264][277][282][287][297]. - Some devices in each downstream industry have undergone start - stop and load - adjustment operations [219][238][250][263][276][281][286][292]. - **Downstream Inventory** - PP production enterprise inventory, PP powder inventory, and other downstream inventories have changed to varying degrees [301][303][304].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central value. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was -250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after 4340 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 5977 lots (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI reached 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP reached 69.6 (-8). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China was 77 (-2); the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. Freight rates increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was -27 (weekly +12). PDH profits significantly recovered but were still poor. Port inventories decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external releases decreased by 0.19%. PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February (Juzhengyuan Phase II and Zhongjing Phase II), with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, domestic and foreign valuations were high; the expected supply - demand pattern in the foreign market weakened, as the impact of the US fog was expected to be small, and although the Middle East was tight in the short term, it would be loose later; the combustion demand was coming to an end in February, and the PDH operating rate decreased. The domestic valuation was neutral, with 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads in reverse arbitrage, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory Daily Data - From January 16 to January 22, 2026, the prices of South China LPG changed from 5035 to 4815, East China LPG from 4523 to 4428, Shandong LPG from 4440 to 4480, propane CFR South China from 597 to 610, propane CIF Japan from 549 to 595, CP forecast contract price from 527 to 537, Shandong ether - after C4 from 4340 to 4360, Shandong alkylate from 7150 to 7150, paper import profit from 254 to -65, and the main basis from 486 to 394. The daily changes on January 22 were -25, -39, 10, 6, 24, 6, 30, 20, -74, -104 respectively [1] Daily View - On Thursday, the 02 - 03 spread was 67 (+2), the 03 - 04 spread was -275 (-11), and the 02 - 04 spread was -208 (-9). At 9:30 PM on Thursday, the FEI and CP paper prices reached 551.19 and 534.19 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly View - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, with the weekly central value slightly shifting upward. The 02 basis decreased by 41, the 02 - 03 spread increased by 15, and the 03 - 04 spread decreased by 58. Civil gas prices increased, and the cheapest deliverable decreased by 50. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 241. The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic - foreign spreads decreased, the CIF discount in East China decreased, the FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States changed, the freight rate increased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread increased week - on - week. PDH profits recovered but were still poor. Port inventories decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external releases decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate decreased by 2.54 pct, and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February, with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, domestic and foreign valuations were high, the expected supply - demand pattern in the foreign market weakened, the domestic valuation was neutral, with 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads in reverse arbitrage, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]