丙烯日报 | 2025-11-04 外盘丙烷价格回升，PDH利润缩窄 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6029元/吨（+20），丙烯华东现货价5950元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5840元/吨（-60）， 丙烯华东基差-79元/吨（-20），丙烯华北基差-189元/吨（-80）。丙烯开工率75%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR145美元/吨（-28），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR57美元/吨（-26），进口利润-216元/吨（+108），厂内库存45050吨（-1210）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率43%（+2.00%），生产利润45元/吨（+25）；环氧丙烷开工率69%（+1%），生产利润-488 元/吨（-68）；正丁醇开工率84%（-2%），生产利润-33元/吨（-13）；辛醇开工率89%（+1%），生产利润-227元/吨 （+93）；丙烯酸开工率67%（-7%），生产利润726元/吨（+36）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+0%），生产利润-140元/吨（+133）； 酚酮开工率78%（+0%），生产利润-478元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，装置检修高峰已过，利华益维远 ...

IPC = # el H 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/04 -P G 内院CFR华 山东烷基 CP预测合 纸面进口利润 日期 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 华南液化气 华东液化气 目似 化油 E 4274 2025/10/28 4400 4260 538 496 459 4400 7150 -3 108 2025/10/29 4274 4370 4400 4270 558 528 465 7100 -160 62 2025/10/30 4285 4280 487 4370 7100 4400 560 526 -184 2025/10/31 4279 487 4420 4400 4300 222 528 7050 -150 86 2025/11/03 4297 4360 481 4395 550 208 4680 7050 -117 84 -2 日度变化 -5 60 -5 -20 -6 260 0 33 18 |周一，民用气方面，华东4297（+18），山东4360（+60），华南4395（-5）。醚后碳四4680（+260）。最低交割地为华东，基岩4 日度变化 ß（+57），12- ...

IPC = # SH 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/03 -P G 山东烷基化 纸面进口利 内院CFR华 CP预测合 日期 华东液化气| 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 华南液化气 润 目似 油 E 4282 4270 2025/10/27 4410 540 498 461 4430 7300 -16 130 2025/10/28 4274 4400 7150 4400 4260 538 496 459 -3 108 2025/10/29 4274 4270 4370 7100 4400 558 528 465 -160 62 2025/10/30 4285 4280 487 4370 4400 560 526 7100 -184 2025/10/31 4279 487 4420 7050 4400 4300 222 528 86 l 日度变化 o IH 20 -5 2 50 -20 - -13 -6 O |周五，民用气方面，华东4279（-6），山东4300（+20），华南4400（+0）。醚后碳四4420（+50）。最低交割地为山东，基差-14 日度变化 (+55)，12-01月差 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly, while the PG main contract fluctuated upward. With no pressure on inventory and increased downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. However, propane is still greatly affected by Sino - US tariff policies, so cautious participation is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: Civil LPG prices in some regions showed small rebounds in decline. In the East China region, the price was 4285 (+11), in Shandong it was 4280 (+10), and in South China it was 4400 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4370 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The daily spread was 27 (+69), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 82 (-5). The CP official price was announced slightly higher than expected, with propane and butane at 475 (-20) and 460 (-15) respectively. The FEI price increased to 513.62 (+1.62) dollars/ton [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The domestic civil LPG price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable product was East China civil LPG at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). The number of warehouse receipts was 2416 lots, with 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas market price increased significantly [1]. Market Indicators - **Basis and Month Spreads**: The basis was - 69 (-49), the 11 - 12 month spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 113 (-1) [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows and Spreads**: The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPI spread narrowed but the switching window was still open. The latest value was - 82.5 (-11.5). The PG - CP spread was 114 (-17); the PG - FEI spread was 79 (-33). The FEI - CP spread was 35 (+15) [1]. Industry Conditions - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The profit of PDH decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but the second - phase of Zhongjing shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume production [1]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The arrival volume was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventories and factory warehouses decreased. Chemical demand provided support, and the expectation of combustion demand improved [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PG main contract fluctuates upward. The basis is -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread is 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread is 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices have dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); Shandong is at 4360 (+160), and South China is at 4405 (-55). [4] - Outer - market prices have risen sharply; FEI spread is -6.25 USD (+3.75), CP spread is -8 USD (-4). PG - CP reaches 114 (-17); PG - FEI reaches 79 (-33). FEI - CP reaches 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window is open. [4] - PDH profit declines. Arrivals are at a low level, external supply decreases, and both port and factory inventories have decreased; chemical demand provides support, and the expectation of combustion demand is warming up. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the decline of civil gas continued. East China was at 4274 (+0), Shandong at 4270 (+10), and South China at 4400 (+0). Ether - post carbon four was at 4370 (-30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -109 (-27), the 11 - 12 spread of 74 (+15), and the 12 - 01 spread of 87 (-17). FEI and CP increased to 512 (+11) and 466 (+4) USD/ton respectively. [4] Weekly Views - The PG main contract fluctuates upward. The basis, spreads, domestic civil gas prices, outer - market prices, spreads between different benchmarks, and the status of arbitrage windows have changed as described above. [4] - PDH operating rate is 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II has shut down again. Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume next week. [4] - Overall, with no pressure on inventory and increased downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. Propane is still greatly affected by the China - US tariff policy. [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upwards. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66), Shandong at 4360 (+160), and South China at 4405 (-55). With no pressure on inventory and an increase in downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. Propane is still greatly affected by the Sino - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended. [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Daily Changes - On Monday, the decline of civil gas continued. In East China, it was 4282 (+3), in Shandong 4270 (-90), and in South China 4410 (+5). Ether - after carbon four was 4430 (-40). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -83 (-14), the 11 - 12 spread was 80 (-10), and the 12 - 01 spread was 106 (+1). FEI and CP increased to 495 (+3) and 458 (+4) dollars/ton respectively. [4] Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upwards. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66), Shandong at 4360 (+160), and South China at 4405 (-55). There were 2416 lots of warehouse receipts, including 2300 from Wanhua, an increase of 64 from Yunda, and an increase of 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas market prices rose sharply. The FEI spread was -6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP spread was -8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP reached 114 (-17), PG - FEI reached 79 (-33), and FEI - CP reached 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China CIF discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, at -82.5 (-11.5). PDH profit decreased. The arrival volume was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased. Supported by chemical demand and with the expectation of a recovery in combustion demand, the PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II shut down again. Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume next week. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas. The warehouse receipt was 2416 lots. The overseas price soared. The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased. With chemical demand support and the expectation of warming combustion demand, it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase. Propane is still greatly affected by the Sino - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, civil gas continued to rebound slightly. East China was 4279 (+12), Shandong was 4360 (+20), and South China was 4405 (+5). Ether - after carbon four was 4470 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 94 (-45), and the November - December spread was 68 (-52). FEI and CP increased, reaching 492 (+6) and 455 (+1) US dollars per ton respectively [4] 3.2 Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 69 (-49), the November - December spread was 90 (-47), and the December - January spread was 113 (-1). The domestic civil gas price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). There were 2416 lots of warehouse receipts, including 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas price soared; the FEI monthly spread was - 6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP reached 114 (-17); PG - FEI reached 79 (-33). FEI - CP reached 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, with the latest at - 82.5 (-11.5). The PDH profit decreased. The arrival was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventory and factory inventory decreased; supported by chemical demand and with the expectation of warming combustion demand. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but Zhongjing Phase II shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume. Overall, there is no pressure on inventory, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and it is expected that the spot will maintain a slight increase [4]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The PDH profit improvement may lead to increased demand for CP cargo purchases. One can focus on narrowing the PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of the low - opening of the end - of - month CP official price [1] Group 2: Market Data and Changes Daily Changes - On Thursday, civil gas prices declined. In East China, it was 4369 (-5), in Shandong 4280 (-70), and in South China 4500 (-30). Ether - post carbon four was 4460 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 28 (-174), and the November - December spread was 137 (+8). FEI and CP increased to 474 (+8) and 450 (+1) dollars per ton respectively [1] - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); in Shandong it was 4450 (-100), and in South China 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 (+0). Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected. The FEI monthly spread was - 15 dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was - 8.75 dollars (+0.25). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. AFEI was at a discount of - 18.75, and the South China CIF discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 126 (-5) and the Middle East - Far East at 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to - 83 (-28) [1] Market Conditions - The inventory pressure is small, the supply is abundant, the chemical demand provides strong support, and the combustion demand is gradually picking up. The PDH operating rate is 70.88% (-1.64pct), with some plants like Haiwei, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing is expected to resume next week [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - DH profit improvement may lead to increased demand for CP cargo purchases. Consider narrowing PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of a low CP official price at the end of the month [1] - The PG market has declined significantly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. The basis and 11 - 12 month spread have changed. Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price was the lowest in two years [1] - The inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually recovering. PDH operating rate has decreased, and some plants have shut down with one expected to resume next week [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: On October 15, compared with the previous day, civil gas prices in East China decreased by 9 to 4374, in Shandong by 90 to 4350, and remained unchanged in South China at 4530. Ether - post - carbon four decreased by 20 to 4460 [1] - **Weekly Changes**: PG prices in different regions changed. The basis and 11 - 12 month spread changed. FEI and CP had small fluctuations. PDH profit, inventory, and supply - demand situations also had corresponding changes [1] Market Indicators - **Price and Spread**: The 10 - month CP official price was 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected. FEI and CP month spreads, and various internal and external spreads (PG - CP, PG - FEI, FEI - CP) changed [1] - **Arbitrage Window**: The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. AFEI and CP South China arrival discounts are given. Freight rates have dropped significantly [1] - **Profit**: PDH propylene production spot profit changed little, and PP production profit rebounded from a low level [1] - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: Inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually recovering. PDH operating rate is 70.88% (-1.64pct) [1]

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/3 0 | 4640 | 4363 | 4550 | 570 | 493 | 70 | 522 | 4550 | 7620 | -29 | 226 | | 2025/10/0 9 | 4600 | 4380 | 4430 | 520 | 463 | 67 | 470 | 4620 | 7580 | 318 | 408 | | 2025/10/1 0 | 4590 | 4384 | 4450 | 530 | 471 | 64 | 478 | 4590 | 7560 ...