证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 08 日 中无人机（688297.SH） 重大合同签订反映军贸高景气度，下半年内贸有望高增 中游制造/军工 2025 年 9 月 30 日，公司发布公告，与中航技签订日常经营销售合同，合同总 额 6.15 亿人民币（不含税）。 ❑ 风险提示：产品订单低于预期，产品交付进度低于预期 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2664 | 685 | 3375 | 4231 | 4887 | | 同比增长 | -4% | -74% | 393% | 25% | 15% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 328 | (68) | 371 | 484 | 564 | | 同比增长 | -19% | -121% | -643% | 30% | 17% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 303 | (54) | 290 | 378 | 441 | | 同比增长 | -18% | -118% | - ...

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 439 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.77 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 182.76% [1] - The significant year-on-year recovery in performance is primarily driven by military trade, with 97.27% of the revenue coming from related sales, mainly associated with AVIC International [1] - In Q2, the company reported operating revenue of 203 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.93 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230.98% [1] Group 2 - The overall gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 26.55%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Management expenses amounted to 55.91 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.95%, primarily due to increased production scale and investments in information technology [2] - Research and development expenses were 43.41 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 46.66%, influenced by the capitalization of certain projects [2] Group 3 - As of the first half of 2025, the company's inventory reached a historical high of 3.628 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 38.48% compared to the end of the previous year [3] - The company plans to repurchase shares for employee stock ownership plans, with a budget of 100 million to 200 million yuan, indicating confidence in future development [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are net profits of 290 million, 378 million, and 441 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 138, 106, and 91 times [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [4]. Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes that domestic trade and military trade continue to drive demand in the industry [10][48]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The "New Era of China's National Security" white paper was released on May 12, outlining China's strategic focus on national security and its interaction with global stability [48]. - Recent defense sales agreements were made with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, totaling approximately $4.3 billion, indicating strong international demand for military equipment [49][50][51]. Market Performance - The military industry index (801740) decreased by 1.18% from May 12 to May 16, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.12% [19]. - The military index has increased by 0.68% since 2025, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 1.16%, showing relative strength in the long term [21]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [54]. - Domestic Trade: Companies such as Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, and others are highlighted [54]. - Foreign Trade: Companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are recommended [55]. - Self-Sufficiency: Companies involved in commercial engines and nuclear fusion are noted [56]. Financial Insights - As of May 16, the military industry index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 65.05, indicating a high valuation but potential for recovery in demand by 2025 [53][38]. - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs have increased, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [32].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][71]. Core Viewpoints - The military industry is experiencing a comprehensive rise, with the Shenwan Military Industry Index (801740) increasing by 0.28% from April 7 to April 11, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.87%, resulting in an excess return of 3.16 percentage points [2][43]. - The military sector demonstrates strong anti-volatility capabilities due to rigid domestic demand, self-control, and resistance characteristics, especially in the context of escalating international trade tensions [3][43]. - The military industry is expected to see significant demand recovery in 2025, driven by the acceleration of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Centenary of the Army" goals, making it a key area for investment [3][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Military Industry Index ranked third among 31 first-level industries this week, showing strong performance [8][14]. - From the beginning of 2025, the Shenwan Military Industry Index has decreased by 1.64%, while the CSI 300 Index has decreased by 4.69%, indicating a relative outperformance of 3.05 percentage points [16]. Fund Flows and Valuation - There has been a significant increase in passive fund sizes and shares, with a net inflow of 2.788 billion yuan into military ETFs, marking the largest net inflow since the beginning of 2025 [27][44]. - As of April 11, the current TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Industry Index is 61.38, with a percentile rank of 78.04%, indicating a high configuration value at this time [44][44]. Key Recommendations - The report strongly recommends focusing on two main lines: "Domestic Trade" and "Self-Control" [44]. - Suggested stocks for "Domestic Trade" include Tianqin Equipment, LIGONG Navigation, and Optical Electronics, while for "Self-Control," recommended stocks include Hangyu Technology and Xiling Power [44].