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12月浆价提涨关注造纸,智能手机销量向好3C包装龙头受益
Huafu Securities· 2025-12-07 09:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a tight supply of wood chips leading to an increase in pulp prices, with Jin Ying Group announcing a $20/ton increase for hardwood pulp in Asia for December. The anticipated shutdown of certain softwood pulp lines in Canada has halted the decline in softwood pulp prices. This price increase is expected to support the cost structure for wood pulp companies, with a continued recommendation for Sun Paper [3][7] - According to Counterpoint Research, Apple's smartphone shipments in October increased by 12% year-on-year, achieving a market share of 24.2%, the highest monthly global market share on record. The report recommends Yutong Technology based on this growth [3][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, with an index increase of 1.86% compared to the 1.28% increase in the CSI 300 index for the week ending December 5, 2025 [13] - Within the light industry, the packaging and printing index rose by 3.96%, while the paper index increased by 1.18% [13] 2. Home Furnishing - In October, residential construction area decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, with cumulative sales of residential properties from January to October down by 7% [30] - Furniture retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 9.6% in October, but furniture exports fell by 12.7% [34] 3. Paper and Packaging - As of December 5, 2025, prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with white cardboard prices up by 10 CNY/ton and boxboard prices up by 15 CNY/ton [39] - The report notes a decline in waste paper prices, with the average price for waste yellow board at 1909 CNY/ton [52] 4. Consumer Goods - The report indicates that the fourth quarter is a peak season for e-commerce sales, with recommendations for companies in the personal care sector to expand their marketing channels [109] - The report also highlights the performance of the stationery sector, with a recommendation for Morning Glory Co., which is expected to see a recovery in operations [109] 5. New Tobacco Products - The EU is discussing revisions to the Tobacco Tax Directive, which could significantly increase taxes on tobacco and nicotine products, potentially impacting the industry [6] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International, which is expected to benefit from the growing market for heated tobacco products [6] 6. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the industry index declining by 1.6% [23] - The report notes increased demand for warm and sports apparel due to colder weather, recommending companies like Anta and Li Ning [23]