泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 文娱用品 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523070003 Email：yansy@zts.com.cn 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 1,341.54 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,341.54 | | 市价(港元) | 229.80 | | 市值(百万港元) | 308,286.62 | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 308,286.62 | 1、《势能向上，展望积极》2025-10-22 2、《坚定信心，立足长远》2025-09-21 3、《三周期共振，生态化延展》 2025-09-05 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 文娱用品 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523070003 1、《势能向上，展望积极》2025-10-22 2、《坚定信心，立足长远》2025-09-21 3、《三周期共振，生态化延展》 2025-09-05 Email：yansy@zts.com.cn 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 1,341.54 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,341.54 | | 市价(港元) | 229.80 | | 市值(百万港元) | 308,286.62 | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 308,286.62 | 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

证券研究报告 策略 PPI 上行如何影响 AH 权益？ 需求拉动型通胀：由于内生需求回暖推动价格上行，全产业链利润扩张，风 险偏好提升，行业轮动呈现明显的上游->大金融->消费的顺序，回测上看， 非金属材料、能源金属、乘用车、光伏设备、其他电源设备、玻璃玻纤等板 块主要受益，消费电子、专业服务、一般零售、厨卫电器、通信服务等板块 可能受损。 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 专题研究 宏观视角，PPI 同比有望于 5-6 月转正 考虑到 PPI 中石油化工相关商品价格、CPI 中运输和与能源相关性较高的分 项或表现强于此前预期。此外，随着 AI 投资相关需求以及外需走强，叠加 国内"反内卷"政策的稳步推进，对 PPI 波动率贡献较为显著的黑色系、有 色系上游商品价格有望延续温和回升态势，中下游（光伏设备、汽车等）价 格亦有望企稳，共同推动 PPI 指标同比降幅收窄。华泰宏观团队预测中国 PPI 或将在今年 5-6 月转正，为 2022 年 10 月来首次；2026 全年平均 PPI 或将从去年的-2.6 回升至+0.1%，而今年年底 PPI 可能达到 1%左右（《PPI 何时转正?》2026 年 3 ...

Market Overview - The entertainment products sector experienced a decline of 0.82% on February 4, with Qunxing Toys leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qunxing Toys (002575) saw a significant drop of 9.62%, closing at 7.33, with a trading volume of 1.3171 million shares and a transaction value of 1 billion yuan [2] - Other notable declines included: - Qixin Group (002301) down 2.82% to 7.57 [2] - Yingpais (002899) down 2.79% to 31.72 [2] - Conversely, some stocks in the sector showed slight gains, such as: - Shuhua Sports (662599) up 1.04% to 11.68 [1] - Zhujiang Piano (002678) up 0.52% to 5.78 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The entertainment products sector experienced a net outflow of 184 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 130 million yuan [2] - The following stocks had notable capital flows: - Zhujiang Piano had a net inflow of 22.83 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Hailun Piano (300329) had a net inflow of 5.11 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - However, stocks like Huali Technology (301011) and Yingpais experienced net outflows from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The entertainment products sector increased by 0.82% on February 3, with Zhejiang Natural leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the entertainment products sector showed various performance, with Zhejiang Natural at 26.61, up 3.22%, and Qunxing Toys at 8.11, up 2.40% [1] Group 2 - The entertainment products sector experienced a net outflow of 110 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 45.42 million yuan [2] - The main funds' net inflow for Tongda Chuangzhi was 19.79 million yuan, while Zhejiang Natural had a net inflow of 8.49 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a negative net inflow for several stocks, including Tongda Chuangzhi with -29.84 million yuan and Zhejiang Natural with -9.38 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The entertainment products sector increased by 0.14% on February 2, with Zhujiang Piano leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down by 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down by 2.69% [1] - Zhujiang Piano's stock price rose by 10.08% to 5.79, with a trading volume of 240,100 shares and a transaction value of 135 million [1] Group 2 - The entertainment products sector saw a net inflow of 154 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 55.67 million [2][3] - Key stocks in the sector included Qunxing Toys, which had a net inflow of 133 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 68.99 million from retail investors [3] - Zhujiang Piano had a net inflow of 55.24 million from institutional investors, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 31.66 million [3]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the resilience of the A-share market amidst multiple overseas risks and signals of regulatory easing in China, suggesting that the relationship between market performance and regulatory changes warrants further consideration [5][12] - It highlights the significant outperformance of the A-share market compared to other major indices, particularly the CSI 300, which has faced substantial redemption pressure [5][12] - The report suggests that investors should not overly worry about the CSI 300's performance, as it has already aligned with regulatory easing requirements, reducing the necessity for further pressure [5][12] Group 2: Economic Insights - China's exports continued to show strong performance in December, driven by overseas investment during a global easing cycle, positively impacting sectors like electrical and mechanical equipment [6][13] - Domestic consumption is recovering, with a rebound in per capita consumer spending in the fourth quarter, aligning with the report's annual strategy predictions [6][13] - The report notes that recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing real estate are expected to support synchronized recovery in both domestic and external demand [6][13] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Recommendations - The report identifies a dual focus for 2026 on physical assets and Chinese assets, with thematic investments being essential [7][16] - Recommended sectors include physical assets such as copper, aluminum, tin, gold, lithium, and oil, alongside Chinese equipment export chains like electrical grid equipment and renewable energy [7][16] - The report also highlights sectors benefiting from capital market expansion and improving long-term asset returns, such as non-bank financials and consumer sectors like aviation and duty-free retail [7][16] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - **Yunnan Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ)**: The report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and a strong balance sheet, with potential for increased dividends [18] - **Hua Aluminum (600301.SH)**: The company is seen as a strong growth candidate due to rising tin and antimony prices and its position as a key beneficiary of metal consolidation in Guangxi [19] - **Yingliu Co. (603308.SH)**: The report anticipates a surge in global gas turbine demand, positioning the company to increase its market share in turbine blades [20] - **Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ)**: The company is recognized for its strong cash flow from cement operations and potential for significant dividends [21] - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in the entertainment market through IP incubation and diverse monetization strategies [22] - **China Duty Free Group (601888.SH)**: The company is projected to strengthen its market position in the duty-free sector, benefiting from increased inbound tourism and overseas expansion [24] - **China Southern Airlines (1055.HK)**: The airline is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics and a large fleet size [25] - **Li Auto (2015.HK)**: The company is focusing on advancements in AI and smart driving technology, with expectations for increased vehicle sales [26] - **Lante Optics (688127.SH)**: The company is positioned to benefit from strong demand in automotive and smart imaging sectors [27] - **InnoCare Pharma (9606.HK)**: The company is advancing in the ADC field with a robust pipeline and partnerships, with several products nearing clinical registration [29]

Group 1 - The entertainment products sector increased by 1.66% on January 29, with Zhejiang Natural leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the entertainment products sector showed significant price increases, with Zhejiang Natural rising by 10.02% to a closing price of 26.90 [1] Group 2 - The entertainment products sector saw a net inflow of 90.47 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 46.39 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Zhujiang Piano and Zhejiang Natural had substantial net inflows from main funds, with Zhujiang Piano receiving 66.66 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a negative trend in several stocks, with significant outflows from Zhujiang Piano and Zhejiang Natural [3]

Market Overview - The entertainment products sector experienced a decline of 1.69% on January 28, with Gao Le Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the entertainment products sector included: - Qunxing Toys (002575) with a closing price of 7.11, up 3.19% [1] - Chuangyuan Co., Ltd. (300703) at 26.32, up 2.53% [1] - Jinling Sports (300651) at 23.39, up 1.96% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Gao Le Co., Ltd. (002348) at 6.15, down 8.48% [2] - Zhejiang Zhengte (001238) at 52.67, down 4.74% [2] - Yuan Pet (001222) at 22.09, down 3.37% [2] Capital Flow - The entertainment products sector saw a net inflow of 54.57 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 98.10 million yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors showing interest while retail investors withdrew [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Qunxing Toys (002575) had a net inflow of 70.98 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors withdrew 51.05 million yuan [3] - Chuangyuan Co., Ltd. (300703) saw a net inflow of 23.63 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors withdrawing 22.80 million yuan [3] - Gao Le Co., Ltd. (002348) had a net inflow of 2.75 million yuan from institutional investors but faced a significant retail outflow of 52.45 million yuan [3]

Market Overview - The entertainment products sector experienced a decline of 0.69% on January 27, with Shuhua Sports leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Gaole Co., Ltd. (002348) saw a closing price of 6.72, with an increase of 4.19% and a trading volume of 424,700 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 279 million yuan [1] - Shuhua Sports (605299) closed at 11.20, down 3.20%, with a trading volume of 230,400 shares and a transaction value of 258 million yuan [2] - Other notable performers include Yingpais (002899) with a closing price of 33.46, up 0.90%, and Jinling Sports (300651) remaining flat at 22.94 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The entertainment products sector saw a net outflow of 114 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.06 billion yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Gaole Co., Ltd. had a main fund net inflow of 22.91 million yuan, while Shuhua Sports experienced a net outflow of 1.22 million yuan [3] Summary of Capital Flows - Gaole Co., Ltd. had a main fund net inflow of 22.91 million yuan, with a retail net outflow of 34.04 million yuan [3] - Zhujiang Piano (002678) recorded a main fund net inflow of 9.10 million yuan, but also saw a retail net outflow of 7.50 million yuan [3] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among investors, with main funds withdrawing while retail investors are more active in the market [2][3]