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【兴证张忆东(全球策略)团队】青山遮不住——论本轮牛市本质及估值体系重建
张忆东策略世界· 2025-03-06 14:27
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a primary upward trend in the Chinese stock market, driven by a "technology bull market" and supported by domestic demand, despite potential fluctuations and challenges ahead [1][9][10]. Group 1: Market Overview - The Chinese stock market's primary upward trend was confirmed after experiencing some fluctuations, with a recommendation to maintain a bullish mindset and progress with the market [1][9]. - The "technology bull market" is identified as the backbone of the current market rally, initiated after the "924" meeting in 2024, with significant contributions from AI breakthroughs and advancements in robotics [10][12]. - Historical comparisons are drawn to previous market phases, such as the Internet 1.0 and mobile Internet eras, highlighting the importance of technological penetration rates in driving market trends [2][11][13]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current market turbulence is viewed as an opportunity to buy "core technology assets," particularly during short-term adjustments [5][17]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a contrarian approach, capitalizing on short-term market fluctuations to acquire AI-related core assets, which are expected to lead the market in the coming years [6][24]. - The article suggests focusing on companies that embrace AI technology, particularly internet platforms and robotics, as they are likely to benefit from the ongoing technological advancements [24][25]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Analysis - Recent market fluctuations are attributed to external factors, such as trade risks associated with the Trump administration, and the need for investors to adapt to these uncertainties [16][19]. - The Chinese government is expected to implement policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing technological innovation, which will support the ongoing "technology bull market" [19][21]. - The analysis of the U.S. interest rate environment indicates a potential decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which could positively impact the Hong Kong stock market [21][22]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The article identifies specific sectors poised for growth, including AI technology, renewable energy, and consumer sectors, suggesting that these areas will benefit from policy support and technological advancements [24][26]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of selecting stocks with strong fundamentals and growth potential, particularly those that can leverage AI technology for operational efficiency [25][26].