风险资产反弹，避险资产依旧受青睐。 在特朗普最新关税表态导致全球市场在刚刚过去的周末巨震时，基于此前经验，多家海内外机构均淡定地表示， 这将是"TACO（特朗普总是会退缩）交易2.0"。 果不其然，特朗普12日在社交媒体上已开始向投资者暗示，表示他可能不会兑现对中国"大幅提高关税"的威 胁，"美国想帮助中国，而不是伤害中国。" 高盛首席经济学家哈组斯（Jan Hatzius）在最新报告中写道："我们预计最终的解决方案将是将目前的关税暂停延 长到11月10日之后，同时双方做出一些新的但有限的让步。" 13日亚太交易时段，全球市场的TACO交易疑似已然 开启。 美股期货、加密货币反弹 美股股指期货亚太早盘即开始反弹，标普500指数期货涨0.88%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨1.14%，道琼斯指数期货 涨0.7%。 历史数据也为美股乐观主义者提供了支撑。据机构CFRA统计，二战以来的13轮美股牛市中，有7轮持续至第四 年，平均累计涨幅为88%。此次，标普500指数于2022年10月12日触底后开启了本轮牛市，迄今的涨幅累计达到 83%，市值增长约28万亿美元，以史为鉴仍有上涨空间。 13日早盘，亚太股市普遍下跌。日本 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：变富路上的冠杰 来源：雪球 朋友们，国庆假期好！ 白驹过隙，转眼间距离去年那场波澜壮阔的"924行情"已整整一年。我还清晰地记得，当时A股连 续数日千股涨停，打开盘面，是望不到尽头的一片火红。短短5天时间，我的账户就从亏损500万 变成了盈利300万，那种感觉至今记忆犹新。 一年过去了，市场却上演了极致的分化。许多朋友踩中了科技的风口，资产翻了几倍甚至十倍； 而当初选择了消费的朋友，绝大多数至今仍在深坑里煎熬。甚至当中有些人，已经忍不住去追高 科技了。 这里我想问问，那些仍在坚守消费的朋友们：此刻你的内心，是否已经动摇？你是否已对消费彻 底失去信心，后悔当初的10月8日应该一开盘就割肉离场，去追逐那辆疾驰在风口上的科技战车。 这篇文章无法决定大家的投资方向，但或许能给大家带来一丝启发，那便值得了。 看到文章的标题了吗？在科技股狂飙突进的这一年，坚守传统的你，是否成了"小登"眼中那个浪 费了一年光阴的"老登"呢？ 可能有些新朋友还不懂，我先简单科普下 "小登" 和 "老登" 这两个词 ...

中国资产大爆发，港A股领涨全球! 万得中概股100指数、恒生科技指数、万得全A、沪深300霸榜2025年三季度全球大类资产涨幅榜TOP4，上证指数、恒生指数紧随其后。 今年以来，科创100、创业板50领跑A股。 科技牛市中，ETF成为锋利的矛! 三季度，通信ETF、5G通信ETF涨超80%;5GETF、人工智能ETF、锂电池ETF、电池ETF涨超70%;通信设备ETF、科创芯片ETF、双创龙头ETF、双创 ETF、双创50ETF等涨超65%。 今年以来 ，港股医药领涨，港股创新药ETF、港股创新药50ETF、港股通医疗ETF富国、恒生创新药ETF翻倍;通信ETF、黄金股ETF、创业板人工智能ETF 涨幅居前。 (本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议) 三季度，创业板50、创业板指涨超50%;科创50、科创100涨超40%。 恒生科技、恒生指数、万得全A今年以来领涨全球主要指数。 ETF规模突破5万亿。截至9月30日，国内ETF规模达5.63万亿，较年初规模增长1.89万亿。其中，股票型ETF最新规模3.71万亿，占比66%。 从资金流向看，三季度超3147亿元资金净流入ETF，年初至今ETF市场吸 ...

北京商报讯（记者 郝彦）2025年四季度将启，基金公司的最新调研动向也备受关注。东方财富Choice 数据显示，截至9月29日，近一个月，超百家公募密集调研逾700家上市公司。其中，光伏设备、机械设 备行业个股最受公募关注。而在近一个月中，朱红裕、闫思倩等知名基金经理也参与调研有色金属、家 用电器行业个股。有业内人士表示，公募机构可能关注到相关行业个股景气度存在回升态势，同时也可 能聚焦"反内卷"推动下的投资机会。在科技牛市持续上演的背景下，若后续赚钱效应持续提升，将促使 公募机构的调研积极性进一步增强。 除上述个股外，调研家数排名前十的个股还包括多氟多、安克创新、中联重科、深南电路以及绿联科 技，近一个月均被超42家公募调研，所属行业包括化学制品、消费电子、机械设备及电子元件。 科方得智库研究负责人张新原表示，光伏设备行业受益于全球能源转型和政策支持，国内光伏产业链技 术领先、成本优势明显，出口需求持续增长。机械设备则与制造业升级、高端装备国产化趋势相关，尤 其在自动化、新能源相关设备领域需求强劲。 北京财富管理行业协会特约研究员杨海平认为，部分个股获得公募调研关注度较高或与相关行业个股景 气度存在改善有关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the increasing probability of a new round of fiscal stimulus, suggesting that a shift in market style is beginning to take root, with expectations for a turning point in fiscal policy and prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable divergence in the market, with indices performing well but individual stocks showing mixed results, particularly in the technology sector, which has been driven by a few companies in the ChiNext board [1] - The extreme rise in technology stocks may lead to increased caution among investors, as the perception of risk grows, prompting a potential shift from technology to traditional sectors such as liquor, consumer goods, and cyclical industries [1] Group 2: Short-term Style Shift - A short-term style shift is anticipated, particularly in traditional industries that have been undervalued, as fiscal policies aimed at stimulating consumption may come into play [2] - The potential for a temporary rally in traditional sectors cannot be entirely dismissed, given the prolonged stagnation in CPI [2] Group 3: Technology Sector Resilience - Even if a style shift occurs, it is viewed as a temporary interlude, with technology stocks likely to remain strong and not lose their leading position in the market [4] - Historical examples suggest that technology has been the driving force behind major market rallies, indicating that a fundamental shift away from technology is unlikely [4] Group 4: Importance of Technology - The current bull market is heavily reliant on technology, which has reached a market capitalization share of 25%, highlighting its growing significance in the A-share market [4] - The emphasis on technology reflects a broader understanding that sustainable wealth creation and future growth depend on technological advancements rather than traditional sectors alone [4]

2024年9月24日，A股市场在一揽子政策"组合拳"发布后，开启狂飙行情。近一年中，沪指经历震荡后 冲高，并创下近十年新高。一轮轮市场热潮中，主动权益类基金的赚钱效应凸显，近一年，99%主动权 益基金实现正收益，超800只产品成为"翻倍基"。与此同时，主要投向权益市场的股票ETF、跨境ETF规 模也迎来爆发式增长。有业内人士表示，公募基金在近一年不同阶段的牛市行情中都起到了引领及带动 上涨的作用，在推动中长期资金入市中发挥了重要作用。未来，市场赚钱示范效应吸引场外资金入市， A股有望从局部牛市转向全面牛市。 收益率排行前十的产品中，还有永赢先进制造智选混合A/C、华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开混 合以及信澳业绩驱动混合A，收益率均超过247%。 除业绩外，基金新发规模扩容同样印证着市场热度的持续升温。Wind数据显示，截至9月24日，近一 年，主动权益类基金发行总规模为1196.43亿元，较2023—2024年同期的768.9亿元同比增长55.6%。 产品业绩、发行规模双升 降准、降息、创设新工具支持资本市场，2024年9月24日的重磅政策"组合拳"令A股迎来了久违的历史 性大涨。彼时，国庆长假前最后一个 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (August 25 - August 29, 2025), the A - share market continued to oscillate upwards, with the Wande All - A Index rising 1.90%. The technology track was the focus of investors, and the ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50 rose 7.74% and 9.27% respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 recorded a 7.49% increase [2][11]. - The "AI+" market is currently concentrated on upstream infrastructure - type hardware. With reference to the experience of the mobile Internet, the technology bull market follows a rotation rhythm from hardware to software and from stories to performance. In the future, domestic AI applications will shift from overseas - benchmarked speculation to statement - end growth verification [4][12]. - The mid - year reports of A - share listed companies in 2025 are basically disclosed. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of the net profit attributable to the parent of all A - shares and all A - shares excluding finance and petrochemicals in 2025H1 are 3.36% and 4.27% respectively, and the performance bottom - warming trend is still on the way [4][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The A - share market continued to oscillate upwards last week. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3900 points on Monday, adjusted in the middle of the week, and showed an upward trend again on Thursday and Friday. The Wande All - A Index rose 1.90%, and the ChiNext Index, ChiNext 50, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 had significant increases. The communication and electronics sectors led the gains, while the Wande Micro - Cap Index fell 3.78% and the CSI Dividend Index declined 1.10%. The market trading was active, with the trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 13 consecutive trading days, and the average daily trading volume was 2983.1 billion yuan, an increase of 395.651 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate was 2.579%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous week [11]. - **"AI+" Market**: The current "AI+" market is concentrated on upstream infrastructure - type hardware. Overseas - chain optical modules and PCBs started in June, and domestic computing power began to make up for the increase in mid - August. With reference to the mobile Internet experience, the technology bull market has a rotation rhythm. The North American AI application is booming, and in the future, domestic AI applications will shift to statement - end growth verification. On August 26, 2025, the State Council issued an opinion, marking the acceleration of China's AI application under policy promotion [4][12]. - **Full A Mid - year Report Disclosure**: The mid - year reports of A - share listed companies in 2025 are basically disclosed. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of the net profit attributable to the parent of all A - shares and all A - shares excluding finance and petrochemicals in 2025H1 are 3.36% and 4.27% respectively, down 0.83% and 2.39% from 2025Q1. The technology sector has a relatively high marginal improvement in performance, while the upstream resource sector is under pressure [4][13]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Mobile phones are still the most mainstream hardware for users to interact with AI. Since 2025, more AI consumer hardware has tried to become an extension of mobile phones. In the long run, the interaction paradigm of AI hardware is expected to evolve towards "senselessness" [4]. 1.2. Public Offering Fund Market Dynamics - As of the end of July 2025, there were 164 public offering fund management institutions in China, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public offering qualifications, managing a total net asset value of 35.08 trillion yuan. In July, the net values of stock and hybrid funds increased by 4.07% and 3.76% respectively month - on - month, while the shares decreased by 0.33% and 1.22% respectively. The decrease in the shares of equity - containing funds was due to some holders taking profits [5][14]. 2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Active Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and the styles are roughly balanced according to the style distribution of the CSI Active Stock - type Fund Index [16]. - **Performance**: It rose 4.20% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 13.01% since its establishment [6]. 2.2. Value Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds with deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style division [16]. - **Performance**: It rose 0.95% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of - 0.18% since its establishment [6]. 2.3. Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: Balanced - style fund managers balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks and are diversified in industries. It selects 10 funds with relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style division [21]. - **Performance**: It rose 2.80% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 7.70% since its establishment [6]. 2.4. Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It aims to seize the opportunities of performance and valuation double - click of high - growth companies and find "dark horses" in high - potential fields. It selects 10 funds with active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style division [22]. - **Performance**: It rose 5.69% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 17.45% since its establishment [6]. 2.5. Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 15 funds to form the index [26]. - **Performance**: It fell 1.86% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 21.90% since its establishment [6]. 2.6. Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 10 funds to form the index [28]. - **Performance**: It rose 0.82% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 16.06% since its establishment [6]. 2.7. Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, Communication, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 10 funds to form the index [31]. - **Performance**: It rose 5.42% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 18.93% since its establishment [6]. 2.8. High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 10 funds to form the index [34]. - **Performance**: It rose 2.00% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of - 8.14% since its establishment [6]. 2.9. Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemicals, Coal, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 5 funds to form the index [37]. - **Performance**: It rose 1.33% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of - 2.55% since its establishment [6].

Core Viewpoint - Yongying Fund has announced the public offering of its new fund "Yongying Pioneer Semiconductor Smart Selection" from September 1 to September 10, 2025, managed by Zhang Haixiao, marking the second fund launched by him in a month [1] Fund Management Overview - Zhang Haixiao currently manages three products at Yongying Fund, with a total management scale of 2.452 billion yuan, where "Yongying Semiconductor Industry Smart Selection" accounts for 2.252 billion yuan, representing the majority of his managed assets [3] - The other two funds managed by Zhang include "Yongying Resource Smart Selection," which was established on August 21, 2025, with a scale of 16 million yuan, and "Yongying Quality Life," which has seen a decline in recent quarters, managing 184 million yuan [3] Performance Metrics - "Yongying Semiconductor Industry Smart Selection" has achieved a return of 59.20% since its inception, with an annualized return of 22.90% and a ranking of 185 out of 3660 in its category [4] - The fund's year-to-date return is 56.28%, significantly outperforming its benchmark return of 28.27% and the CSI 300 index return of 14.28% [9] - The fund's top ten holdings include companies in the semiconductor industry, with a concentration ratio of 85.63% in stock market value, which is notably higher than the average of 45.76% for similar funds [9] Fund Growth and Market Conditions - The fund's share volume has seen explosive growth, increasing 12.51 times in the third quarter, reaching 1.879 billion shares by June 30, 2025, following a market reversal since the third quarter of the previous year [12] - Zhang Haixiao's aggressive investment style has coincided with a bull market in technology stocks, contributing to substantial returns for the fund [12] Historical Performance and Challenges - Despite recent successes, "Yongying Semiconductor Industry Smart Selection" has faced challenges in previous years, underperforming its benchmark in 2023 and 2024, with a maximum drawdown of -45.02% since inception [14][15] - The fund's performance history indicates significant volatility, raising concerns about risk management and investment strategy effectiveness [21]

Core Viewpoint - The significant financial turnaround of Cambricon Technologies, which reported a substantial increase in revenue and profit, has positively impacted the stock market, particularly in the semiconductor sector. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cambricon achieved revenue of 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4300% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.038 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 533 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities improved to 911 million yuan, a significant recovery from a negative 631 million yuan in the previous year [1] Group 2: Inventory and Future Growth - As of the first half of 2025, Cambricon's inventory balance reached 2.69 billion yuan, a 51.64% increase from the end of the previous year, accounting for over 30% of total assets [2] - The increase in inventory and prepaid accounts, totaling 828 million yuan, indicates confidence in future bulk shipments and production expansion [2] - Market estimates suggest that Cambricon's Q3 revenue could exceed 2 billion yuan, with a potential total revenue nearing 8 billion yuan for the year [2] Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - Cambricon's stock price reached 1329 yuan, approaching the highest price in the A-share market, with Goldman Sachs raising its target price to 1835 yuan [3] - The semiconductor sector is expected to see upward adjustments in valuations, driven by Cambricon's performance, which serves as a benchmark for the industry [3] - The domestic AI chip market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic production and safety, indicating a strong growth trajectory for Cambricon and similar companies [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The domestic capital expenditure for computing power is in the hundreds of billions, with a potential 50% localization requirement, ensuring market growth [4] - The global AI chip market is expected to reach $92 billion by 2025, with China accounting for approximately 30% of this market [4] - The semiconductor industry has shown high elasticity, with the CSI Semiconductor Industry Index rising 182% since 2016, outperforming other indices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is transforming into a global technology capital hub, driven by a surge in technology company listings and significant capital inflows [1] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) has seen a nearly 1.8% increase, with net capital inflows for four consecutive trading days [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong market has developed a complete financial system, with a significant increase in the weight of the technology sector [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong technology sector has reached 6.29 trillion HKD, with over 600 billion HKD of net inflows from southbound funds this year [1] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which covers high-tech sectors such as information technology and healthcare [1] - The market is expected to enter a technology bull market over the next three years, benefiting from global re-evaluation of Chinese assets and policy support [1]