Group 1 - The core issue is the decline in China-Russia trade, with a 6.6% year-on-year decrease in early 2025, particularly in the automotive and energy sectors [1] - Russia has implemented a flexible export tax policy linked to the ruble, raising the export tax on fertilizers to 10%, which has not been communicated to China, indicating a shift in their trade relationship [3] - In Q1 2025, China imported 24.31 million tons of crude oil from Russia, a 14.7% year-on-year decrease, reflecting a change in strategic attitudes rather than just procurement issues [3] Group 2 - The automotive sector is facing challenges as Russia has closed its market to Chinese electric vehicles, forcing Chinese companies to pivot to Central Asian markets like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan [5] - In April 2025, China imported 8.07 million tons of crude oil from Russia, accounting for 16.8% of total imports that month, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease, driven by both energy efficiency initiatives and Russia's export policy changes [5] - China is no longer offering concessions on coal imports from Russia, as domestic coal production is significant, and lowering tariffs could harm local coal companies [5] Group 3 - Despite visible cooperation in agriculture and technology, trade dynamics are shifting, with a 6.8% decline in China-Russia trade in Q1 2025, indicating a potential reduction in Russia's reliance on the Chinese market [7] - The changing trade relationship is characterized as a negotiation for rebalancing interests, with China needing to stabilize domestic demand and export routes while Russia aims to control inflation and stabilize the ruble through export policies [9] - The current state of affairs suggests a need for a long-term negotiation-based partnership between China and Russia, moving beyond previous informal agreements [9]