Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - This week (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.6), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 dropped from 1.81% last Friday to 1.802% this Friday, a decrease of 0.8bp. The bond market oscillated within a very narrow range, with 1.8% becoming the invisible lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield. It is recommended to add duration cautiously to avoid the disturbances brought by the recovery of production demand after the Spring Festival and the goals of the Two Sessions in March [1][9][14]. - The significant fluctuations of overseas assets in the early stage have been repaired this week. The market's divergence is significantly increasing, and the previous structured market is undergoing "destructuring". It is expected that at least in the first half of 2026, the technology growth will maintain its momentum. The subsequent interest rate path is still dominated by fundamental data [15]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US fluctuates in the short - term, and the number of continued claims declines. The unemployment rate steadily rises, and the labor participation rate fluctuates weakly, indicating the structural pressure in the employment market. The year - on - year increases of the US CPI and core CPI continue to narrow, and the inflation pressure is further alleviated. The Fed has pressed the "pause button" on interest rate cuts, and the global monetary policy shows significant "diversification" characteristics [16][18][19]. Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Views - **Analysis of the Bond Market's Narrow - Range Oscillation**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased. The bond market oscillated in a narrow range. The central bank's net purchase of Treasury bonds in the open - market in January 2026 was 100 billion yuan, the highest since the resumption of Treasury bond trading last October, but more restrained compared with 2024. The reasons are that it can supplement the liquidity gap at the beginning of the year and reduce the bank's liability cost, and the central bank tends to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity [1][9][14]. - **Analysis of the Future Trend of US Treasury Yields**: Overseas asset fluctuations have been repaired. The technology growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the first half of 2026. The Fed's policy signal has turned dovish this week, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. The subsequent interest rate path depends on fundamental data [15]. - **Analysis of US Economic Data**: The US labor market has a "low - hiring, low - firing" pattern, and the employment market has structural pressure. The inflation pressure in the US is further alleviated, and the manufacturing shipment volume and inventory total expand synchronously. The Fed has paused interest rate cuts, and the global monetary policy shows "diversification" [16][18][19]. 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From 2026/2/2 to 2026/2/6, the total net investment in the open - market was - 756 billion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [29]. - **Interest Rate Comparison**: The money - market interest rates, including R, DR, and SHIBOR, showed different degrees of decline this week compared with last week [34]. 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity Price Changes**: Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have all declined. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, vegetable price indices, RJ/CRB commodity price indices, and South China industrial product price indices have shown different trends [52]. - **Stock and Bond Market Performance**: The VIX panic index led the increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai Stock Index led the decline. The short - end and long - end of the US Treasury yield curve have both risen [62][68][71]. 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: This week, 90 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 579.673 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 300 million yuan, and a net financing amount of 579.373 billion yuan, mainly invested in the comprehensive field [81]. - **Regional Issuance**: 15 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and the top five in terms of total issuance amount were Jiangxi, Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. 11 provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, and the top five in terms of total issuance amount were Jiangsu, Henan, Jiangxi, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Chongqing [85][89]. - **Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 3.6 billion yuan, all from Anhui Province. Since November 15, 2024, the total early redemption scale of national urban investment bonds has been 121.007 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [91][95]. 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local government bonds this week was 55.89 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 437.52 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.78%. The top three provinces with active local government bond trading were Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. The top three trading - active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [99]. - **Yield Changes**: The maturity yields of local government bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [102]. 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and cities such as Zhejiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hunan, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing from February 9 to February 11, 2026, are presented [106]. 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Overall Issuance**: This week, 440 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 358.206 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 102.182 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 256.024 billion yuan, an increase of 100.335 billion yuan compared with last week [107]. - **By Bond Type**: Urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of 57.856 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 198.167 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of 35.325 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing amount of 88.497 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing amount of - 2.186 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing amount of 124.115 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing amount of 10.273 billion yuan [108][114]. 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds increased by 6.61bp, medium - term notes decreased by 14.33bp, and corporate bonds increased by 3.54bp [124]. 4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 561.09 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for each bond type [125]. 4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of national development bonds declined across the board this week. The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally declined, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [124][126][127][128]. 4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes increased across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally increased [130][132][134]. 4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [137][141][145]. 4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, optional consumption, and daily consumption [149][151]. 4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [152].