战略："双期叠加"下的财政政策或更积极——2026 年财政政策 展望 今日早参 2025 年 11 月 26 日 史进峰 经济政策与国际关系首席研究员 邮箱：shijinfeng@htsc.com 王兴 通信行业首席研究员 座机：021-38476737 邮箱：wangxing@htsc.com 今日深度 1 回顾 2025 年以来的财政政策运行，一个突出特征是广义财政的明显扩张并 没有推动固定资产投资增速的明显改善，1-10 月份投资累计增速下滑 1.7%，我们认为主因在于大量财政资源用于化债、清偿企业拖欠和土储等暂 时不产生或滞后产生实物工作量的存量问题上。展望 2026 年，"十五五"开 局之年与"化债攻坚期"的关键一年双期叠加，我们预计，实施更加积极有 为的财政政策，仍然是化解存量、优化增量的题中之义。2026 年财政赤字率 有望维持在 4%左右，为配合化债等政策推进，新增专项债额度或进一步扩 容至 5 万亿左右，特别国债或仍维持 1.8 万亿左右的水平。年底的中央经济 工作会议是观察当前政策储备、展望明年政策部署的观察窗口，预计明年会 尽量靠前形成实物工作量。 风险提示：经济下行压力超预期；政策出台 ...

Core Viewpoint - Military stocks have generally risen, indicating a positive sentiment in the defense sector, driven by recent developments in naval capabilities and the urgency for domestic aircraft engine independence [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Companies such as AVIC (02357) saw a rise of 4.58%, trading at HKD 4.34; China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increased by 3.38%, trading at HKD 16.23; and Continental Aerospace Technology Holdings (00232) rose by 2.24%, trading at HKD 0.137 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - A report from Dongfang Securities highlighted that three types of carrier-based aircraft have completed their first catapult takeoff and landing training, marking a milestone in China's naval strength and expanding the influence of military equipment [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that engines could become a significant bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations, emphasizing the urgent need for self-sufficiency in domestic aircraft engines [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The military industry has stabilized in recent weeks, with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" signaling the start of a new phase in equipment construction, focusing on domestic demand and military trade [1] - The second half of the year will require attention to the upward trend in domestic demand and positive developments in military trade, highlighting the sector's investment value [1]